What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Grand Theft Auto V launched with few Billboard Top 10 hits.
- GTA Online's radio diversified, embracing electronic subgenres and global music.
- Specific music licensing deal details for game soundtracks are unavailable.
- Rockstar Games consistently chooses cinematically prominent songs for its games.
- Grand Theft Auto soundtrack details historically emerge from pre-launch leaks.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Despacito | 48.0% | 35.2% | "Despacito" was an iconic global hit, making it a strong candidate for a "modern classic" on a GTA 6 radio station, especially given the likely presence of a Latin-themed station in the Vice City setting; however, the background research indicates that only a small percentage (10.26%) of GTA V's contemporary launch songs were Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits, suggesting high selectivity and the song's 2017 release date might place it slightly outside the prime "contemporary hit" window for a 2025 GTA 6 launch. |
| Blinding Lights | 53.0% | 33.2% | While "Blinding Lights" is a monumental #1 hit and a strong candidate for inclusion, the historical precedent from GTA V indicates that Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits constituted only 10.26% of songs on its contemporary launch radio stations, making a 40.7% probability for a single specific track seem comparatively high. |
| Shape of You | 26.0% | 14.5% | The evidence shows that over 10% of GTA V's launch songs on contemporary stations were Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits, lending plausibility to "Shape of You," a global number one hit, being chosen; however, this 10% figure is an aggregate across many songs, and there are numerous other major hits that could also be selected, making a 14.5% probability for this specific song difficult to assess definitively from this data alone. |
| God’s Plan | 35.0% | 22.2% | The evidence provides high-quality secondary analysis confirming that approximately 10.26% of GTA V's contemporary launch songs were Billboard Top 10 hits, suggesting Rockstar selectively includes major hits, which supports the market's premise that "God's Plan" (a massive hit) *could* be chosen, but does not provide specific information about GTA 6 or this song to shift the debiased anchor. |
| Look at Me! | 37.0% | 18.7% | While "Look at Me!" was a culturally significant song and a Billboard Top 10 hit, the historical data from GTA V shows that only 10.26% of songs on contemporary stations were Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits from the relevant pre-launch period, suggesting a significantly lower overall inclusion rate for such tracks than the market's 24.1% probability for a single, 8-year-old song. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Despacito
📈 April 25, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 12.0% to 49.0%
📉 April 24, 2026: 47.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 12.0%
Outcome: Blinding Lights
📈 April 15, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 41.0% to 53.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if "Despacito" is playable on at least one in-game radio station in Grand Theft Auto VI at launch; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome will be verified by Kotaku and Rockstar Games. The market opens on June 12, 2025, at 10:00 AM EDT, and closes early if the event occurs, or by January 1, 2030, at 10:00 AM EST if it doesn't. Trading is prohibited for those employed by the source agencies or holding material, non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blinding Lights | $0.54 | $0.57 | 53% |
| Despacito | $0.52 | $0.52 | 48% |
| Bad and Boujee | $0.47 | $0.62 | 47% |
| Mask Off | $0.42 | $0.70 | 41% |
| Sicko Mode | $0.49 | $0.62 | 38% |
| As It Was | $0.35 | $0.75 | 37% |
| Look at Me! | $0.39 | $0.73 | 37% |
| Rockstar | $0.46 | $0.64 | 36% |
| God’s Plan | $0.47 | $0.65 | 35% |
| Mo Bamba | $0.46 | $0.66 | 34% |
| Pepas | $0.45 | $0.67 | 33% |
| Shape of You | $0.26 | $0.79 | 26% |
| XO Tour Llif3 | $0.38 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Stay | $0.36 | $0.76 | 24% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Percentage of GTA V Launch Songs Were Billboard Top 10 Hits?
| Top 10 Hits Percentage | 10.26% ([^], [^], [^], [^]) |
|---|---|
| Radio Los Santos Tracks | 19 tracks [^], [^] |
| Non-Stop-Pop FM Tracks | 20 songs [^], [^] |
6. How Have GTA Online Radio Stations' Music Tastes Evolved?
| Cayo Perico Heist Stations | Still Slipping Los Santos, Kult FM, The Music Locker Radio (December 2020) [^] |
|---|---|
| MOTOMAMI Los Santos Genres | Reggaeton, experimental pop, hyperpop, electronic music, Latin trap [^] |
| Still Slipping Los Santos Genres | UK electronic, house, techno, garage, jungle, electro, UK drill [^] |
7. Can Preferential Music Licensing Deals Be Identified for Game Soundtracks?
| New Songs in GTA Online DLC | 77 [^] |
|---|---|
| RDR2 Music Composition | Original score, licensed songs, vocal tracks [^] |
| Publishing Group Information | Not specified for individual licensed tracks [^] |
8. How Does Cinematic Appeal Influence Grand Theft Auto VI Song Choices?
| Rockstar's Song Preference | Tracks with proven "cinematic" appeal for trailers and in-game moments [^] |
|---|---|
| Example Cinematic Track | Travis Scott's "The Plan" (from Christopher Nolan's Tenet) [^] |
| Broader Selection Trend | "Epic trailer songs" and tracks from major film/TV campaigns (2020-2024) [^] |
9. How Are Grand Theft Auto Soundtrack Details Typically Revealed?
| Leak Lead Time | Approximately one month before launch [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Leak Source | Game pre-loads/files [^] |
| Official Tracklist Release | Post-launch [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2030
- Closes: January 01, 2030
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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