Soybeans price on Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: above 1080.99¢ at 97.7% model vs 0.0% market. It suggests that while robust crop estimates and high managed money net long positions indicate slight downward pressure, the market significantly undervalues the probability of the price remaining above this threshold.
1. Executive Verdict
- Robust 2025/2026 South American soybean crop estimates project downward pressure.
- Brazil's CONAB raised 2025/2026 soybean production forecast to 162.8 MMT.
- Managed money holds a 52-week high net long position in soybeans.
- This high net long position suggests vulnerability to significant long liquidation.
- Concerns persist over delayed US soybean planting due to Midwest rains.
- NOAA predicted heavy Midwest precipitation for mid-April 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 1170.99¢ | 4.0% | 21.0% | Robust South American crop estimates and high managed money net long positions suggest downward price pressure. |
| above 1165.99¢ | 5.0% | 21.0% | Robust South American crop estimates and high managed money net long positions suggest downward price pressure. |
| above 1160.99¢ | 43.0% | 38.9% | Robust South American crop estimates and high managed money net long positions suggest downward price pressure. |
| above 1175.99¢ | 7.0% | 21.0% | Robust South American crop estimates and high managed money net long positions suggest downward price pressure. |
| above 1155.99¢ | 93.0% | 91.9% | Robust South American crop estimates and high managed money net long positions suggest downward price pressure. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a strong upward trend, moving from a starting probability of 63.0% to its current level of 95.0%. The most significant price action occurred in the days leading up to the resolution date. On April 14, 2026, the price saw a 10 percentage point spike, which was followed by a much more substantial 30 percentage point jump on April 15, 2026. Since this sharp increase, the price has held steady at the 95.0% level, which is currently acting as a ceiling for the market.
The cause of these significant price spikes is not indicated by market activity, as there has been a total of zero contracts traded throughout the market's history. This complete absence of volume is the most critical technical factor. It suggests that the price movements are not the result of trader sentiment or conviction, but rather are likely due to automated adjustments by the market's creator or an underlying price feed. The lack of trading means traditional technical indicators like support and resistance levels, which are formed by buying and selling pressure, are not applicable in this case.
Ultimately, the chart reflects the market maker's pricing model rather than a consensus view from participants. The 95.0% probability indicates a very high expectation that the outcome will be "YES," but this expectation is not supported by any trading volume. The market sentiment, as derived from actual participant activity, cannot be determined from this chart.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: above 1090.99¢
📈 April 15, 2026: 43.0pp spike
Price increased from 52.0% to 95.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: above 1085.99¢
📈 April 14, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 58.0% to 69.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for the SOK6 (May 2026) soybean contract is above 1160.99 USd/Bu at 5 PM EDT on April 17, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 17, 2026, with projected payouts an hour later. Settlement is based on Pyth data, rounded to two decimal places, using the most recently available data if specific timestamps are missing, and includes a rule for rolling the active contract month.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 1150.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.08 | 98% |
| above 1145.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.04 | 93% |
| above 1155.99¢ | $0.93 | $0.09 | 93% |
| above 1160.99¢ | $0.50 | $0.56 | 43% |
| above 1185.99¢ | $0.07 | $1.00 | 24% |
| above 1190.99¢ | $0.07 | $1.00 | 12% |
| above 1175.99¢ | $0.02 | $0.99 | 7% |
| above 1165.99¢ | $0.10 | $0.94 | 5% |
| above 1170.99¢ | $0.09 | $0.96 | 4% |
| above 1180.99¢ | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| above 1080.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.05 | 0% |
| above 1085.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1090.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1095.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1100.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1105.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1110.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1115.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1120.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.06 | 0% |
| above 1125.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.07 | 0% |
| above 1130.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.07 | 0% |
| above 1135.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.07 | 0% |
| above 1140.99¢ | $0.99 | $0.07 | 0% |
| above 1195.99¢ | $0.07 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above 1200.99¢ | $0.07 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above 1205.99¢ | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above 1210.99¢ | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above 1215.99¢ | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above 1220.99¢ | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above 1225.99¢ | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Are the Latest 2025/2026 Soybean Crop Estimates for Brazil and Argentina?
| Brazil CONAB Soybean Estimate | 162.8 million metric tons (early April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Argentina BAGE Soybean Forecast | 48.5 million metric tons [^] |
| USDA March 2026 WASDE Data | Specific Brazil/Argentina estimates not detailed in research [^] |
Brazil's CONAB revised its 2025/2026 soybean projection upward in early April 2026, estimating production at 162.8 million metric tons (MMT) [^] . This figure represented a fractional increase from CONAB's March 2026 estimate, which had stood at 162.3 MMT [^]. The upward revision in April highlighted strong crop performance throughout the season [^].
Argentina's BAGE forecast 48.5 MMT for 2025/2026 soybeans. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) projected the 2025/2026 soybean harvest in Argentina at 48.5 million metric tons [^]. This estimate reflects the expected output from one of the world's major soybean-producing nations.
USDA's specific 2025/2026 soybean estimates were not detailed in the research. Although the USDA's March 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was identified [^], the provided research findings do not explicitly detail its specific soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina for the 2025/2026 crop year. Therefore, a direct comparison of the USDA's projections against those from CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cannot be made based on the available information.
6. When Will US Soybean Export Sales to China Be Available?
| Export Sales Commitment Date | Week ending April 16, 2026 (Future Date) [^] |
|---|---|
| Data Availability Status | Not yet released (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service) [^] |
| Source of Future Data | USDA FAS Weekly Export Sales report [^] |
Data for future US soybean export commitments is unavailable. Information regarding cumulative US soybean export sales commitments to China for the week ending April 16, 2026, is not currently accessible. This is because the specified date falls in the future.
Specific export sales data will be released later. As a result of the future date, the weekly report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) for that period has not yet been released. Consequently, it is not possible to determine the cumulative US soybean export sales commitments to China for the current marketing year or to compare this pace to the 5-year average for that specific week.
USDA FAS reports will provide future export sales figures. Details on US soybean export sales commitments to China, including current marketing year totals and historical comparisons, are typically published in the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Weekly Export Sales report [^]. Once the report for the week ending April 16, 2026, becomes available, it will contain the specific data needed to address the inquiry.
7. How Do USDA and S&P Global Corn Acreage Forecasts Compare?
| USDA Corn Acreage | 95.338 million acres (March 31, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| USDA Soybean Acreage | 84.740 million acres (March 31, 2026) [^] |
| S&P Global Corn Acreage | 95.2 million acres (April 1, 2026) [^] |
The USDA's March 31 'Prospective Plantings' report provided initial 2026 US crop acreage projections. This official government release, based on agricultural producer surveys, indicated farmers' intentions to plant 95.338 million acres of corn and 84.740 million acres of soybeans for the 2026 growing season [^]. These figures were widely disseminated across various agricultural news outlets [^].
S&P Global's corn forecast diverged slightly from USDA's official figure. On April 1, 2026, S&P Global issued an updated projection of 95.2 million acres for 2026 U.S. corn plantings [^]. This estimate was 0.138 million acres lower than the USDA's 95.338 million acres [^]. It should be noted that specific early April 2026 crop acreage forecasts from StoneX, or S&P Global's early April soybean acreage forecast, were not available in the provided sources.
8. What Was Managed Money's Soybean Futures Position as of April 2026?
| Managed Money Net Long Position | 45,200 contracts (week ending April 14, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Reporting Period End | April 14, 2026 [^] |
| Position Record | 52-week high [^] |
For the week ending Tuesday, April 14, 2026, Managed Money held a significant net long position in CBOT soybeans. The 'Managed Money' category in CBOT soybean futures reported a net long position of 45,200 contracts. This figure indicates a substantial increase in bullish exposure, reflecting strong speculative buying interest in soybeans heading into the middle of April 2026 [^].
This net long position represented a 52-week high for the Managed Money category. The 45,200 contract net long position marked a 52-week high for the 'Managed Money' category in CBOT soybean futures, signaling that a large segment of market participants in this group held heavily bullish views on soybeans [^]. While robust buying activity can support prices, such an elevated net long position also renders the market vulnerable to a rapid reversal. Should market sentiment shift or fundamental factors weaken, there is an increased risk of long liquidation, which could exert downward pressure on prices [^].
9. What is NOAA's April 2026 Midwest Forecast for Agriculture?
| Precipitation Forecast | Heavy April rains for the Midwest around April 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Temperature Anomalies | Not detailed for Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana in available sources for April 16, 2026, outlook [^]. |
| Planting Window Impact | Delayed start to critical planting window due to anticipated heavy rainfall [^] |
The April 16, 2026 NOAA forecast predicted heavy precipitation. A NOAA prediction for April 2026, specifically highlighted around April 13, indicated a high probability of significant precipitation anomalies for core US Midwest states, including Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. The forecast specifically noted predictions of heavy April rains across the Midwest region [^]. While the outlook for April 16, 2026, emphasized these challenging precipitation patterns, specific quantitative temperature anomalies for these states were not detailed in the available sources.
Heavy rainfall anticipated a delayed and unfavorable planting season. This NOAA outlook strongly signaled a delayed commencement for the crucial planting window across the core US Midwest states. The anticipated heavy rainfall was expected to create unfavorable conditions for agricultural activities, leading to projected Midwest planting delays [^]. Consequently, the forecast indicated an unfavorable start to the vital spring planting season in the region [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 24, 2026
- Closes: April 17, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSOYBEANW-26APR1017-T1233.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSOYBEANW-26APR1017-T1228.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSOYBEANW-26APR1017-T1223.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSOYBEANW-26APR1017-T1218.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSOYBEANW-26APR1017-T1213.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
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