Soybeans price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

The USDA and CONAB project 302.8 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2025/2026 season. Initial forecasts for the upcoming harvest season from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the U.S. and Brazil's National Food Supply Company (CONAB) indicate a combined soybean production total of 302.8 million tonnes ^{[^]}. This comprises a U.S. production forecast of 125.2 million tonnes from the USDA ^{[^]}, alongside CONAB's projection of 177.6 million tonnes for Brazil for the same period ^{[^]}.

The 2025/2026 forecast significantly exceeds the trailing 5-year average combined supply. This anticipated production of 302.8 million tonnes marks a substantial increase compared to the average combined U.S. and Brazil soybean supply of 253.16 million tonnes over the 2019/2020 through 2023/2024 marketing years ^{[^]}. During this historical period, the U.S. averaged 112.36 million tonnes and Brazil 140.8 million tonnes annually ^{[^]}. The projected 2025/2026 output surpasses this 5-year average by 49.64 million tonnes, representing an estimated increase of approximately 19.6% ^{[^]}.

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) projects a decrease in sow inventory by late 2025. The national sow inventory is projected to reach 39.61 million head by the end of 2025, reflecting a 2.9% decrease ^{[^]}. This figure serves as a crucial leading indicator for the overall pig herd size and, consequently, the demand for soybean meal in early 2026. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MOA) relies on NBS data when formulating its market assessments and policies ^{[^]}.

The sow herd size directly impacts future pig production and feed demand. A projected sow inventory of 39.61 million head by late 2025 directly dictates the breeding capacity and the number of market-ready pigs in the subsequent period, extending through early 2026. This projection provides a clear trajectory for pig production and the associated demand for feedstuffs like soybean meal. To ensure market equilibrium and food security, the MOA aims to maintain the national sow herd within a stable range, typically between 39 million and 41 million head ^{[^]}.

Major climate agencies forecast high likelihood of La Niña through early 2026. Major climate agencies, including the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), have projected a high likelihood of La Niña conditions persisting through the South American growing season from November 2025 to February 2026. Forecasts indicated a 60-70% chance of La Niña during the November 2025-January 2026 period, with this probability slightly decreasing to 50-60% for the December 2025-February 2026 timeframe. Concurrently, the likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions was projected to rise to 30-40% during the latter period ^{[^]}. The probability of El Niño developing remained low, generally below 10-15% across various models ^{[^]}.

IRI's reports confirm persistent La Niña, with some later weakening. The IRI’s Quick Look reports supported these projections, with its consensus forecasts aligning with a continued high probability of La Niña through early 2026, showing a 65-70% chance for November-January and decreasing to approximately 55% for January-March ^{[^]}. However, reports also suggested a potential weakening of La Niña by early 2026, introducing some uncertainty about its full impact duration on the later part of the South American growing season ^{[^]}.

Persistent La Niña typically brings varied rainfall patterns to South America. A persistent La Niña generally leads to drier-than-average conditions in key agricultural regions of southern Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, potentially impacting soybean and corn yields. Conversely, it might contribute to wetter conditions in parts of northern Brazil ^{[^]}.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 2026 RVOs significantly increase demand for renewable diesel feedstocks. The EPA finalized the total Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 at 22.33 billion gallons ^{[^]}. A crucial element impacting soybean markets is the biomass-based diesel (D4) RVO, which is specifically set at 2.82 billion gallons for 2026 ^{[^]}. These obligations aim to bolster American energy security and support rural economies by driving increased renewable fuel production, including renewable diesel ^{[^]}. The higher RVOs for biomass-based diesel directly translate to a substantial increase in demand for feedstocks like soybean oil to meet renewable diesel production targets ^{[^]}.

Increased soybean oil demand will enhance crush profitability and shift soybean usage. This heightened demand for soybean oil is projected to significantly influence the "crush spread," which represents the gross profit margin from crushing soybeans into oil and meal. Analysis indicates that meeting the 2026 D4 RVOs could necessitate an additional 4-5 billion pounds of soybean oil compared to 2022 levels for renewable diesel production alone ^{[^]}. This robust demand for soybean oil strengthens crush margins, making the crushing of soybeans more profitable ^{[^]}. Consequently, a greater proportion of the U.S. soybean stock is expected to be diverted towards oil extraction for renewable diesel, rather than solely for traditional uses like animal feed (soybean meal) and food oil ^{[^]}. This diversion prioritizes feedstock supply for the growing renewable diesel sector, driven by the enhanced profitability of crushing operations due to strong soybean oil demand ^{[^]}.

The USDA's March report projected reduced corn acres and increased soybean plantings for 2026. Released on March 31, 2026, the Prospective Plantings report provided crucial early insights into U.S. crop intentions ^{[^]}. It estimated 90.0 million acres for corn in the 2026 season, marking a 5% decrease from the previous year. Conversely, soybean planted area for 2026 was projected at 87.5 million acres, representing a 3% increase compared to the prior year ^{[^]}. These figures offer a key indication for market outlooks.

CONAB's April survey maintained record Brazilian grain harvest projections for the 2025/26 season. The 7th survey for the Brazilian grain harvest was published on April 14, 2026 ^{[^]}, forecasting a total grain harvest of 356.34 million tons ^{[^]}. CONAB increased its estimate for the 2025/26 soybean crop to 154.6 million tons, an uptick from the previous month's projection. The estimate for the corn crop was also raised to 120.7 million tons ^{[^]}. Strong soybean crop performance was noted as a contributing factor to the elevated overall grain harvest projection ^{[^]}.

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