How do you monitor prediction market moves automatically?
You automate monitoring by connecting to a market data source through an API or MCP server, defining the specific contracts and probability thresholds you care about, and routing any change into a dashboard, feed, or agent so you do not have to watch screens.
Detailed Explanation
Start with a clean data source. Manual refreshing does not scale across dozens of contracts. A programmatic feed gives you consistent probabilities and timestamps. Octagon exposes this through an Events API and Kalshi search and basket endpoints and an MCP server so an agent can read markets directly.
Define what counts as a move. Decide which contracts to watch and what change matters: an absolute jump in probability, a percentage change, a cross above a threshold, or a liquidity shift. Filtering noise up front is what keeps a monitor useful. The trust criteria in what makes a signal trustworthy versus noisy are a good basis for those rules.
Route the output. Send qualifying changes to where you already work: a dashboard, a chat channel, an email digest, or an agent that takes the next research step. Pairing a move with context from the news feed makes each notification actionable.
Close the loop with research. A move is a prompt, not a conclusion. The strongest setups attach the probability change to a reason, then hand it to an analyst or agent for a quick read.
Common Scenarios
- Watching a basket of macro contracts around scheduled releases
- Tracking a single high-conviction event into its resolution date
- Monitoring a sector cluster so one company's news surfaces peer moves
- Feeding live odds into an internal model or agentic workflow
Exceptions & Edge Cases
- If you monitor thin markets, expect false positives and widen your thresholds.
- If you poll too aggressively on illiquid contracts, you will chase noise.
- If your contract set drifts from your actual questions, the monitor degrades over time, so review it.
Practical Examples
Build task: "Watch ten macro contracts and surface only meaningful moves."
- Pull the contracts through the Events API
- Set a rule, for example flag any probability change of five points or more
- Route flagged moves with a news snippet into your channel
- Hand each flag to an agent for a one-line "why." Try the API playground.
Actionable Takeaways
- ✅ Use an API or MCP feed rather than manual refreshing
- ✅ Define a precise rule for what counts as a move
- ✅ Filter by liquidity to cut false positives
- ✅ Attach context so each alert is actionable
