How do you build alerts for major probability changes?
You build a useful alert by pairing a clear trigger, such as a probability move past a set threshold on a liquid contract, with a delivery channel and a noise filter, so you are notified when an outcome's odds shift for a real reason.
Detailed Explanation
Set the trigger precisely. Decide whether the alert fires on an absolute change, a percentage change, or a level crossing. "Notify me if recession-by-year-end odds move five points" is a better trigger than "watch this market," because it has a clear condition.
Add a liquidity filter. A move on a thin book is often noise. Require a minimum liquidity or size so the alert fires on consensus shifts, not single trades. This is the same discipline described in what makes a signal trustworthy versus noisy.
Tie the move to a catalyst. The most actionable alerts arrive with context. Linking the trigger to the news feed tells you whether a filing or data release drove the move, or whether it is an unexplained spike worth distrusting.
Choose a channel and a cadence. Route alerts to email, chat, or an agent, and decide between instant and digest. Instant suits scheduled catalysts, while a daily digest suits a broad watchlist. You can wire this through the Octagon API or MCP server.
Common Scenarios
- A threshold alert on a single high-stakes event into its resolution date
- A digest of the biggest overnight moves across a watchlist
- An instant alert tied to a scheduled release like CPI or an FOMC decision
- A liquidity-change alert that flags when a market becomes tradeable
Exceptions & Edge Cases
- If your threshold is too tight, you get alert fatigue, so calibrate to how you actually act.
- If you alert on illiquid markets, expect reversals right after the trigger.
- If an alert has no catalyst attached, treat it as a prompt to investigate, not to act.
Practical Examples
Build task: "Alert me on major Fed-path repricings only."
- Pick the rate-decision contracts and set a five-point trigger
- Require liquidity above your minimum
- Deliver instantly around FOMC and CPI, with a news snippet attached
- Send everything else to a once-daily digest. Start in the API playground.
Actionable Takeaways
- ✅ Define the trigger as a concrete numeric condition
- ✅ Filter by liquidity to avoid noise
- ✅ Attach a catalyst so alerts are actionable
- ✅ Match instant vs digest to how you trade
