Who will Conor McGregor fight next?

TKO Group Holdings executives have explicitly identified Michael Chandler as the key to maximizing pay-per-view revenue for a headline event featuring Conor McGregor's highly anticipated return. This decision was conveyed during the Q1 2025 earnings calls, where Andrew Schleimer, CFO of TKO, specifically labeled McGregor versus Chandler as a "big, big fight" and a major revenue event for the balance of the year ^{[^]}.

McGregor's return was vital; other potential opponents were not specified. While earlier Q4 2024 earnings discussions underscored the general importance of McGregor's comeback for pay-per-view revenue, the available transcripts from that period did not name a specific opponent ^{[^]}. The consistent public speculation surrounding a McGregor versus Chandler bout, combined with the definitive Q1 2025 announcement, firmly establishes Chandler as the crucial figure for maximizing revenue from McGregor's return. Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal were not mentioned as primary targets for maximizing pay-per-view revenue in these recent TKO Group Holdings earnings calls or investor presentations ^{[^]}.

Conor McGregor's media outlets most heavily promoted Michael Chandler's fight narrative. Within the last 60 days, McGregor's personal social media and his associated media outlets, "The Mac Life," have most significantly highlighted the potential fight with Michael Chandler. This consistent focus on the "Ultimate Fighter" rivalry indicates a strong personal preference and alignment with the Chandler narrative for McGregor's immediate media presence.

McGregor consistently engaged publicly regarding the Chandler fight's status. For instance, on May 28, 2024, he expressed frustration with UFC negotiations concerning the bout in a deleted tweet ^{[^]}. Additionally, on April 20, 2024, McGregor publicly responded to Dana White's comments about the fight against Michael Chandler being removed from UFC White House plans ^{[^]}. These direct engagements underscore his significant involvement in promoting the narrative surrounding this particular opponent.

Other potential narratives received less intense, immediate promotion. While McGregor has expressed interest in other scenarios, such as targeting "two BMF Title Fights in 2026," including a clash with an "old rival" ^{[^]} (as noted on April 25, 2024), these ambitions for future title opportunities have not been promoted with the same intensity or continuous focus on his personal channels as the ongoing situation with Michael Chandler. The consistent public engagement, reactions, and frustrations concerning the Chandler bout's status firmly establish it as the most heavily promoted opponent's narrative within the specified timeframe.

Nate Diaz is a free agent facing a significant USADA barrier. His UFC contract concluded in November 2022, making him a free agent ^{[^]}. While UFC President Dana White is open to a reunion, Diaz reportedly declined a larger UFC offer in favor of a Netflix MMA return ^{[^]}. For Diaz to compete in the UFC, he would first need to secure a new contract. Additionally, he would be required to re-enter the UFC's anti-doping testing pool and complete a mandatory six-month testing period, unless a rare waiver is granted ^{[^]}. This USADA requirement poses a substantial regulatory obstacle for finalizing a fight within the next six months.

Jorge Masvidal remains under UFC contract with no USADA barrier. Conversely, Jorge Masvidal appears to be under contract with the UFC, as evidenced by his statement that "UFC had other plans" regarding a Netflix offer ^{[^]}. Assuming he is still under contract, Masvidal would likely already be enrolled in the UFC Anti-Doping Program's testing pool, thereby eliminating any specific regulatory hurdle related to USADA for him to compete within the next six months. His primary logistical step to finalize a fight would involve negotiating the terms for that specific bout.

Research could not find specific betting odds shifts for proposed non-UFC bouts. The study aimed to identify precise shifts in betting odds for potential non-UFC fights involving Conor McGregor, specifically against Mike Perry in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship (BKFC) or Floyd Mayweather Jr. II in boxing, within 72 hours of public statements by promotion heads. A primary finding is the absence of specific data tracking such exact shifts for either potential matchup. Regarding a bare-knuckle contest with Mike Perry, BKFC President David Feldman publicly stated that a McGregor vs. Perry matchup "would be much bigger in bare-knuckle" ^{[^]}. While Conor McGregor has opened as a betting favorite against Perry ^{[^]}, available sources do not provide specific statistics detailing how betting odds on major offshore sportsbooks shifted in the 72 hours following any public statements from Feldman or other BKFC leadership.

No betting odds or shifts were found for a Mayweather rematch. For a potential boxing rematch with Floyd Mayweather Jr., Mayweather himself teased an exhibition bout with McGregor around March 28, 2026 ^{[^]}. However, the research does not include any betting odds for a McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. II boxing match. Consequently, there is no information detailing any shifts in such odds within the specified 72-hour period following Mayweather's public comments.

No top contender's camp aligns with a 12-16 week promotion cycle. Based on the provided research, none of the likely top contenders for a major UFC pay-per-view headliner have a training camp schedule verifiable through SBG Ireland gym reports or specific social media posts that clearly aligns with a 12-16 week promotion cycle targeting either the November MSG card or a Q1 2025 Las Vegas event. For instance, Ian Machado Garry, a top contender, is explicitly reported to have left Ireland to train at Sanford MMA in 2022 and later moved his camp to Georgia, rendering gym reports from SBG Ireland irrelevant for his current training status ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}.

Max Holloway and Michael Chandler lack specific, verifiable training timelines. For other prominent contenders such as Max Holloway, available sources indicate general training activities but lack the specific verifiable details required for the requested timeframe. His coach has stated he is 'ahead of schedule' in training ^{[^]}, and Holloway himself claims to feel 'better than ever' before a title fight ^{[^]}, suggesting active preparation. However, these statements do not provide the detailed 12-16 week timeline or direct social media verification from Holloway or gym reports from SBG Ireland for a November 2024 or Q1 2025 event. Similarly, Michael Chandler's training routine has been discussed, with one article mentioning a '2026 UFC Return,' which does not align with the requested timeframe for a late 2024 or early 2025 fight ^{[^]}. While he was previously slated to fight Conor McGregor for the cancelled UFC 303 event, there is no current verifiable information from the provided sources either through social media or SBG Ireland that details a specific 12-16 week training camp aligning with the November MSG card or a Q1 2025 Las Vegas event ^{[^]}.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.