Series Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Vegas Golden Knights to win the series, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Vegas's dominant penalty kill has shut down Anaheim's power play.
- Anaheim showed early statistical dominance in advanced analytics despite underdog status.
- Vegas captain Mark Stone's injury appears to significantly impact their chances.
- Anaheim tied the series 2-2 after securing an away win in Game 2.
- Vegas's Carter Hart appears to hold a goaltending edge over Anaheim's Dostal.
- T-Mobile Arena home-ice advantage is likely pivotal for remaining series games.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Ducks | 41.0% | 42.8% | Anaheim has tied the series 2-2, securing an away win and benefiting from Mark Stone's injury. |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 60.0% | 57.2% | The significant injury to captain Mark Stone has severely impacted Vegas's perceived chances to win. |
Current Context
The series is tied 2-2, making Game 5 pivotal. The best-of-seven series between the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks is currently tied 2-2 as of May 11, 2026, with Game 5 set to be hosted by Vegas on Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena [^][^][^]. The outcome of Game 5 is considered a decisive indicator for the series winner [^]. Anaheim's 4-3 victory over Vegas in Game 4 resulted in the series tie [^]. This second-round series officially commenced on Monday, May 4, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena, with Game 1's puck drop listed for 6:30 p.m. PT [^][^].
Vegas opened as favorites in the second-round series. Betting markets initially favored the Vegas Golden Knights to win, with major sportsbooks reporting opening odds of approximately -180 to -210 for Vegas [^]. Conversely, the Anaheim Ducks were listed as underdogs at roughly +150 to +170 [^]. Specifically, DraftKings-related coverage indicated initial lines had Vegas as -190 favorites and Anaheim as +160 underdogs when the series lines opened [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has been characterized by high volatility, with price action directly corresponding to series developments. The market opened with a nominal probability before a massive 61.0 percentage point spike on May 2, which appears to be when the NHL officially announced this specific playoff matchup, activating the market. Subsequently, the price has fluctuated in response to game outcomes. A Vegas victory in Game 1 on May 5 drove the price up 15.0 points to a peak of 78.0%. However, an Anaheim win in Game 2 on May 7 caused an 18.0 point drop back to 60.0%. The price then spiked again by 17.0 points around May 9, a movement connected to news of an injury to a key Golden Knights player. Most recently, the price fell 15.0 points on May 11 after the Ducks won Game 4, tying the series 2-2.
The chart suggests a key support level for the Golden Knights around the 60.0% mark, a price it has returned to after two separate losses. Resistance appears to have formed just under 80.0%, a level the price has failed to sustain. Trading volume has been significant, with over 232,000 contracts traded in total, indicating high market interest. A surge in volume on May 7 coincided with the first major price drop, suggesting strong conviction from traders after the series was tied 1-1. The current price of 60.0% indicates that the market still favors the Golden Knights to win the best-of-seven series, but with significantly reduced confidence compared to its peak. The price action reflects a market sentiment that is highly reactive and sensitive to the outcome of each game, pricing in the increased uncertainty of a now-tied series heading into a pivotal Game 5.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Vegas Golden Knights
📉 May 11, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 75.0% to 60.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point drop for the Vegas Golden Knights to win the series was the outcome of Game 4 of the Western 2nd Round on May 11, 2026 [^][^]. On this date, the Anaheim Ducks defeated the Golden Knights 4-3, which tied the best-of-7 series at 2-2 [^][^]. This result likely caused investors to reassess Vegas's odds of winning the series, triggering the price movement. Social media was irrelevant as no related activity was observed in the provided information.
📉 May 07, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 60.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point drop in the Vegas Golden Knights' series winner price on May 07, 2026, was the Anaheim Ducks' 3-1 victory over the Golden Knights on that same date [^][^][^][^]. This loss evened the series at one game apiece, significantly decreasing the Golden Knights' perceived probability of winning the overall series [^][^][^][^]. There is no information available regarding social media activity or market structure factors that would indicate them as primary drivers or accelerants for this specific price movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price change.
📈 May 05, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 63.0% to 78.0%
What happened: The 15.0 percentage point price spike in the "Vegas Golden Knights" outcome on May 05, 2026, was primarily driven by the team's victory in Game 1 of the Western Conference Second Round against the Anaheim Ducks. On that specific date, the Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Anaheim Ducks with a score of 3-1 [^][^][^]. This initial victory naturally increased market confidence in the Golden Knights' prospects for winning the overall series. No relevant social media activity or market structure factors could be identified from the provided sources to explain this movement.
📈 May 02, 2026: 61.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 62.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the price movement in the "Vegas Golden Knights" outcome on May 02, 2026, was likely the official announcement by NHL.com that the Vegas Golden Knights would play the Anaheim Ducks in the Western Conference Second Round [^]. This traditional news confirmed the specific series matchup for which the prediction market was active, providing foundational information for participants. While a 61.0 percentage point spike is noted, the provided sources do not substantiate any specific social media catalyst for this movement [^]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this particular price spike based on the available information.
Outcome: Anaheim Ducks
📉 May 09, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 42.0% to 24.0%
What happened: The provided research identifies an undisclosed injury to Vegas Golden Knights' key player Mark Stone during Game 3 on May 8, 2026, as a catalyst, with news of his absence becoming public prior to Game 4 on May 10, 2026 [^]. This event "severely impacted perceptions of the Golden Knights' chances" [^], implying a decrease in Vegas's likelihood of winning the series. Logically, a diminished opponent would increase the Anaheim Ducks' chances of winning, leading to an increase in the outcome price, not an 18.0 percentage point drop for the Anaheim Ducks on May 9, 2026. Therefore, the information provided does not offer a primary driver for this specific price drop. There is no social media activity identified in the research that could explain this counter-intuitive movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Vegas Golden Knights win their 2nd Round series against the Anaheim Ducks in the 2026 NHL playoffs, as confirmed by sources like ESPN, NHL, and Fox Sports; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on May 2, 2026, and will close when a winner is declared or by June 1, 2026, at 9:30 PM EDT, with payouts expected 5 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for individuals such as current/former players, coaches, staff, league employees, team/league owners, and their immediate family.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | $0.60 | $0.41 | 60% |
| Anaheim Ducks | $0.41 | $0.60 | 41% |
Market Discussion
The discussion shows traders are actively divided on the series winner, with vocal support for both the Vegas Golden Knights and the Anaheim Ducks in a series currently tied 2-2. While the Golden Knights are still favored at 59%, recent market movement indicates a significant increase in confidence for the Ducks, with several users posting to cheer for Anaheim. Traders are primarily expressing their preferred team to win rather than detailed arguments.
5. How do the special teams units—power play and penalty kill—of the Golden Knights and Ducks compare through the 2026 playoffs?
| Golden Knights PK% (2026 Playoffs) | 96.3% [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Ducks PP vs Golden Knights (Current Series) | 0-for-11 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Ducks PP% (First Round) | 50.0% (8-for-16) [^][^][^][^] |
The Vegas Golden Knights’ penalty kill has been exceptionally strong throughout the 2026 playoffs. The Golden Knights have maintained an NHL-best success rate of 96.3%, having successfully thwarted 26 of 27 power play opportunities overall [^][^][^][^]. In their current series, the Golden Knights have completely neutralized the Anaheim Ducks’ power play, preventing them from scoring any power-play goals [^]. Further demonstrating their special teams' prowess, the Golden Knights have also netted three shorthanded goals during the postseason [^][^].
The Anaheim Ducks’ power play effectiveness has significantly declined against Vegas. While the Ducks boasted an NHL-best power play in the first round of the playoffs, converting at an impressive 50.0% (8-for-16) against the Edmonton Oilers [^][^][^][^], they have been rendered entirely ineffective against the Golden Knights, going 0-for-11 on the power play in their current series [^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, the Ducks' penalty kill struggled in the first round, operating at 71.4% (yielding four goals on 14 chances) or 73.9% during that period [^][^].
6. What impact might home-ice advantage at T-Mobile Arena have on the outcome of the remaining games in the series?
| Series Score | Tied 2-2 (heading to Game 5) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Vegas Series Win Probability | 64.5% (pre-series) [^][^] |
| Anaheim's Home Win | 3-1 in Game 2 at T-Mobile Arena [^][^] |
Anaheim has already challenged Vegas's predicted home-ice advantage. Despite pre-series market predictions favoring Vegas to win the series, with one listing indicating a 64.5% probability [^][^], the Ducks secured an early home-ice advantage by defeating the Golden Knights 3–1 in Game 2 at T-Mobile Arena [^][^]. This early victory against expectations reshapes the impact of remaining home games.
7. Which team holds the statistical edge in advanced analytics like Corsi For % and Expected Goals For % through the first four games?
| Ducks Corsi For % (initial games) | 57.1% [^] |
|---|---|
| Ducks Expected Goals For % (initial games) | 56.2% [^] |
| Vegas Golden Knights Win Probability | 61% (as of May 11) [^] |
Anaheim displayed early statistical dominance in advanced analytics during initial games. The Anaheim Ducks exhibited a statistical edge in advanced analytics during the initial games of the series. Through the first two or three games at 5-on-5, the Ducks recorded a 57.1% Corsi For % and a 56.2% Expected Goals For % [^]. Specifically, their Corsi For % for Game 1 stood at 57.5% [^]. This indicates the Ducks maintained strong territorial control, suggesting they have controlled more of the series play than their 2-1 deficit might imply [^].
Complete four-game statistical comparison is hindered by insufficient data. A comprehensive assessment of which team holds the overall statistical edge for the first four games of the series cannot be made with the available data. Corsi For % or Expected Goals For % statistics for the Vegas Golden Knights, or for both teams specifically through the first four games, were not provided. Despite the Ducks' early statistical advantage, the prediction market as of May 11 indicated the Vegas Golden Knights had a 61% probability of winning the series, while the Ducks were at 40% [^].
8. How does the goaltending matchup stack up based on the starting goalies' performances for Vegas and Anaheim in the 2026 playoffs?
| Carter Hart Playoff Save % | .919 (over 5 games) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal Playoff Save % | .874 (across 8 games) [^][^] |
| Carter Hart Playoff GAA | 2.56 [^][^] |
In the 2026 playoffs, Carter Hart of Vegas exhibited a stronger statistical showing compared to Anaheim's Lukas Dostal based on their overall performances [^] [^] . VEG | Hockey-Reference.com">[^]. Hart concluded the playoffs with a 2-2 record, a 2.56 goals against average (GAA), and a.919 save percentage across five games played. In contrast, Dostal also posted a 2-2 record, but with a higher 3.87 GAA and a lower.874 save percentage over eight games [^][^].
First-round performances further detailed each goalie's playoff contributions. Lukas Dostal finished his first-round appearances with a 4-2 record, maintaining a 3.87 goals against average and an.874 save percentage [^]. Carter Hart's first-round statistics included a 2.72 GAA and an.898 save percentage [^]. Notably, Hart also delivered strong shutout and overtime performance stretches during this period [^][^].
9. Are there any significant player injuries or lineup changes for either the Golden Knights or Ducks that could alter the series trajectory?
| Mark Stone Status | Out for Game 4 due to lower-body injury [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Radko Gudas Status | Out for Game 4 due to lower-body injury [^][^][^] |
| Game 4 Result | Ducks won 4-3, series tied 2-2 [^][^] |
Both the Vegas Golden Knights and Anaheim Ducks experienced significant lineup changes due to player injuries ahead of Game 4. Golden Knights captain Mark Stone was sidelined with a lower-body injury after exiting Game 3 early, leading to Brandon Saad joining the lineup as his replacement [^][^][^][^]. This forced the Golden Knights to adjust their offensive strategy without their captain.
The Ducks also dealt with key player absences in Game 4, notably captain Radko Gudas. Gudas missed the game due to a lower-body injury, despite initially being considered a game-time decision, with Game 5 noted as his next potential return [^][^][^]. Additionally, defenseman Drew Helleson was out for Game 4 with an undisclosed injury, prompting Anaheim to utilize alternative third-pairing personnel such as Ian Moore and/or Olen Zellweger [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The best-of-7 series between the Golden Knights and Ducks is tied 2-2 after Game 4, which finished Ducks 4-3 as of 2026-05-11 [^] [^] [^] . A significant catalyst for market probability shifts is the availability of key players, notably Mark Stone, who missed the second and third periods of Game 3 and was out for Game 4 due to an undisclosed injury [^]. His absence coincided with Anaheim s Game 4 win [^]. Game 5 is scheduled for Tuesday, May 12 (9:30 p.m. ET) at T-Mobile Arena, with the full 2nd-round schedule listing possible dates through May 16 for a potential Game 7 [^][^][^].
The 2-2 tie after Game 4 aligns with high market volatility, as indicated by one pre-/near-period Polymarket game-page snapshot for May 10 showing an even-ish moneyline with Golden Knights at 51 and Ducks at 49 implied probability [^] [^] . Ducks Odds & Predictions (May 10, 2026) | Polymarket">[^][^]. Further shifts in market probability are expected based on upcoming game outcomes and player availability. Prior to/around the 2-2 tie, series-win prediction markets were already shifting, with Polymarket s series-winner market presenting Knights at approximately 61% and Ducks at approximately 40% [^][^]. An earlier Polymarket page excerpt showed the Knights as a frontrunner around approximately 38% at one point [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 02, 2026
- Closes: June 02, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The best-of-7 series between the Golden Knights and Ducks is tied 2-2 after Game 4, which finished Ducks 4-3 as of 2026-05-11 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: A significant catalyst for market probability shifts is the availability of key players, notably Mark Stone, who missed the second and third periods of Game 3 and was out for Game 4 due to an undisclosed injury [^] .
- Trigger: His absence coincided with Anaheim s Game 4 win [^] .
- Trigger: Game 5 is scheduled for Tuesday, May 12 (9:30 p.m.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 18 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNHLSERIES-26PHICARR2-PHI: NO (May 10, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26PHICARR2-CAR: YES (May 10, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26LACOLR1-LA: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26LACOLR1-COL: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIES-26ANAEDMR1-EDM: NO (May 01, 2026)
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