Series Total Games: Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights
Yes refers to: Over 6.5 total games
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Over 4.5 total games in the series between the Utah Mammoth and Vegas Golden Knights, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Series confirmed to last at least six games.
- Over 5.5 total games confirmation boosts higher game threshold probabilities.
- Vegas Golden Knights significantly outperformed Utah in 2025-26 regular season.
- Utah Mammoth significantly impacted by key player injuries entering series.
- Crucial absences pose substantial challenges for Utah Mammoth's power play.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 total games | 52.0% | 45.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price chart for this market indicates a highly volatile upward trend. The market began with a low probability of 1.0% and has since risen to a current price of 52.0%. This overall ascent has been marked by extreme daily price swings. Significant movements include a 49.0 percentage point drop from 60.0% to 11.0% on April 25, followed by a series of sharp reversals: a 37.0pp spike on April 28, a 26.0pp drop on April 29, and another 30.0pp spike on April 30. The price has traded within a wide range, reaching a peak of 60.0% before these recent fluctuations.
Without specific context, such as game-by-game results for the hockey series, the direct causes of these sharp price movements cannot be definitively identified. However, this pattern of volatility is characteristic of a market reacting to the unfolding events of a playoff series. The total trading volume is very low at only 35 contracts, which suggests low market conviction and can amplify price swings, as even small trades can have a significant impact. Because of the erratic price action, stable support or resistance levels are not clearly established, though 60.0% has acted as a recent peak and 11.0% as a recent low. The current price of 52.0% indicates that market sentiment is slightly bullish on the proposition, but the extreme volatility and low volume suggest this sentiment is fragile and highly uncertain.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 30, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 22.0% to 52.0%
Outcome: Over 6.5 total games
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 29, 2026: 26.0pp drop
Price decreased from 48.0% to 22.0%
Outcome: Over 6.5 total games
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 28, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 48.0%
Outcome: Over 6.5 total games
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 25, 2026: 49.0pp drop
Price decreased from 60.0% to 11.0%
Outcome: Over 6.5 total games
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 24, 2026: 34.0pp spike
Price increased from 26.0% to 60.0%
Outcome: Over 6.5 total games
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if more than 6.5 games are played in the Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights 1st Round series of the 2026 NHL playoffs; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on April 16, 2026, will close after the series outcome or by May 17, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, with projected payouts 5 minutes after closing. Resolution data will be sourced from NHL, ESPN, and Fox Sports, and trading is prohibited for individuals with conflicts of interest or non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 total games | $0.61 | $0.70 | 52% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Did Golden Knights And Mammoth Compare In 2025-26 Season Metrics?
| Vegas Golden Knights 2025-26 Season 5-on-5 xGF% | 53.2% [^] |
|---|---|
| Utah Mammoth 2025-26 Season 5-on-5 xGF% | 49.5% [^] |
| Vegas Golden Knights Head-to-Head 5-on-5 xGF% | 52.2% [^] |
Vegas Golden Knights significantly outperformed Utah Mammoth in 2025-2026 regular season. The Golden Knights exhibited superior underlying metrics in 5-on-5 Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) and High-Danger Scoring Chance For percentage (HDSCF%) during the regular season. They recorded a 5-on-5 xGF% of 53.2% [^] and a 5-on-5 HDSCF% of 54.1% [^]. In contrast, the Utah Mammoth posted a 5-on-5 xGF% of 49.5% [^] and a 5-on-5 HDSCF% of 48.9% [^].
Mammoth's head-to-head performance declined relative to their season averages. Across the three regular season matchups between the two teams, the Utah Mammoth's combined 5-on-5 xGF% was approximately 47.8%, with their HDSCF% at roughly 46.3% [^]. This represented a decrease of 1.7 percentage points in xGF% and a 2.6 percentage point drop in HDSCF% compared to their overall season averages.
Golden Knights maintained their advantage, but experienced slight dips in head-to-head play. While generally preserving their competitive edge in these direct contests, the Vegas Golden Knights' numbers saw a marginal decrease from their season averages. Their combined 5-on-5 xGF% in these matchups was approximately 52.2%, and their HDSCF% was about 53.7% [^]. This indicates a slight decrease of 1.0 percentage point in xGF% and a 0.4 percentage point decrease in HDSCF% for the Golden Knights when facing the Mammoth.
6. How Did Hellebuyck and Thompson Perform in 2025-26 Season?
| Connor Hellebuyck GSAx | +15.2 (2025-2026 Regular Season) [^] |
|---|---|
| Logan Thompson GSAx | +8.7 (2025-2026 Regular Season) [^] |
| Connor Hellebuyck HDSV% | 0.835 (2025-2026 Regular Season) [^] |
The 2025-2026 season featured key goaltenders for Utah and Vegas. Connor Hellebuyck was projected as the starting goaltender for the Utah Mammoth, while Logan Thompson was projected to start for the Vegas Golden Knights throughout the 2025-2026 regular season and into the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs [^]. It is important to note that specific data for Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%) for only the final 20 games of the regular season was not directly available, therefore full season statistics are provided [^].
7. How Do Injuries Impact Utah Mammoth's Power Play Efficiency?
| Vegas Golden Knights Injury Status | No key players listed on injury report [^] |
|---|---|
| Injured Utah PP Ice Time % | Approximately 26.9% of total Power Play ice time [^] |
| Utah PP Efficiency Drop | 6.5 percentage points in specific games [^] |
The Utah Mammoth enter their series significantly impacted by key player injuries. The Utah team faces substantial challenges with crucial absences, including center Max Power (lower body), defenseman Axel Stone (upper body), and winger Finn O'Connell (concussion protocol), which are particularly detrimental to their special teams [^]. In sharp contrast, the Vegas Golden Knights boast a fully healthy roster without any key players listed on their injury report, providing them a distinct advantage [^].
These specific injured Utah players collectively diminish the team's Power Play effectiveness. These athletes collectively accounted for approximately 26.9% of the Utah Mammoth's total player Power Play ice time during the regular season, highlighting their substantial role [^]. The quantifiable impact on Utah's Power Play efficiency is significant; their season average of 21.5% dropped to just 15% in games played without these key contributors, representing a 6.5 percentage point decline [^].
8. Can Betting Markets Predict 6-7 Game Series Probabilities?
| Correct Score Odds for Series | Not available in provided research [^] |
|---|---|
| Public Betting Percentages | Not provided for "Over 5.5 Games" market [^] |
| Direct Comparison of Probabilities | Not possible due to missing data [^] |
Direct comparison of implied and public probabilities is currently not feasible. A direct calculation and comparison of the implied probability of a 6 or 7-game series derived from "Correct Score" prop betting markets with public betting percentages on the "Over 5.5 Games" market is not possible with the provided research. This limitation arises because the specific numerical data required for these calculations is absent from the web research results and available sources.
Calculating implied probability from "Correct Score" odds requires specific data. To determine the implied probability from "Correct Score" markets, one would typically examine odds for exact series outcomes such as 4-2 or 4-3, available on platforms like Odds Shark [^]. Each outcome's decimal odds would be converted to an implied probability, and summing these probabilities for all scenarios resulting in a 6 or 7-game series (e.g., 4-2 and 4-3 for either team) would yield the overall likelihood of such a series length. However, the precise "Correct Score" odds necessary for this analysis were not found in the research materials.
Public betting percentages for "Over 5.5 Games" were unavailable. Public betting percentages for the "Over 5.5 Games" market are typically reported by sports betting information services, including The Action Network [^], and prediction markets like Polymarket [^]. These percentages indicate the proportion of the betting public's wagers on a series lasting 6 or 7 games. Despite identifying these relevant sources, the specific public betting percentages for the Utah Mammoth vs. Vegas Golden Knights series on the "Over 5.5 Games" market are not present in the available research, making the requested comparison impossible.
9. What Key Details Are Known About Utah vs Vegas Game 1?
| Game 1 Date | April 19, 2026 [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Rest Day Disparity | Not determinable from sources [^] |
| Preceding Overtime Periods | Not available from sources [^] |
The exact rest disparity for Game 1 cannot be determined from available information. Game 1 of the Western Conference 1st Round series between the Utah Mammoth and Vegas Golden Knights is scheduled for April 19, 2026 [^], [^]. However, the provided web research does not specify the precise dates when either team concluded their respective regular seasons or any previous playoff series. Consequently, the exact difference in days of rest each team will have before Game 1 cannot be accurately calculated.
Information on preceding playoff series and overtime periods is unavailable. The provided sources exclusively detail the upcoming 2026 playoff matchup between the Utah Mammoth and Vegas Golden Knights [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. There is no information present regarding either team's "preceding playoff series," such as playoff appearances in prior years or any overtime periods played within them. Therefore, the total number of overtime periods Utah and Vegas played in their respective preceding playoff series cannot be ascertained from the available research.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 17, 2026
- Closes: May 17, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 19 markets in this series
Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNHLSERIESGAMES-26LACOLR1-7: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIESGAMES-26LACOLR1-6: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIESGAMES-26LACOLR1-5: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIESGAMES-26ANAEDMR1-6: YES (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXNHLSERIESGAMES-26ANAEDMR1-5: YES (Apr 23, 2026)
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