Short Answer

Both the model and the market are aligned that 1+ holes-in-one is the most likely outcome, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • First two iterations of this tournament saw no holes-in-one.
  • Dunes Club's firm greens and longer par-3s challenge hole-in-one probability.
  • PGA TOUR par-3 setup significantly influences hole-in-one probability.
  • Specific hole-in-one rates by event or player are unavailable.
  • Myrtle Beach in May typically offers favorable golf weather and moderate winds.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
1+ holes-in-one 0.0% 0.0% Previous tournaments reported no holes-in-one, and the course's firm greens challenge aces.
2+ holes-in-one 0.0% 0.0% Previous tournaments reported no holes-in-one, and the course's firm greens challenge aces.
3+ holes-in-one 0.0% 0.0% Previous tournaments reported no holes-in-one, and the course's firm greens challenge aces.

Current Context

The 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic returns for its third edition as a PGA TOUR "opposite-field" event, played concurrently with the Truist Championship [^] . Hosted at The Dunes Golf and Beach Club, a par-71 course designed by Robert Trent Jones, the tournament will feature 120 players competing for a $4 million purse and 300 FedExCup points [^]. The winner will also secure a two-year exemption and the final invitation to the PGA Championship at Aronimink [^]. This year's field size has been slightly reduced by 12 players compared to previous years [^]. Official practice rounds will take place on May 4-5, with competitive play scheduled from May 7-10 [^]. A notable incident from a previous Classic event's Wednesday Pro-Am involved amateur Patrick Marino achieving a hole-in-one on the 12th hole while playing with actor Kevin Costner [^].
Public events and celebrity appearances enhance the tournament week experience, with gates opening to the public on May 6 for the Wednesday Celebrity Pro-Am Presented by DEUS X Defense [^] . This event is expected to feature stars such as Kurt Russell, John McEnroe, and Robert Herjavec, with Vanna White serving as the tournament's ambassador [^]. Additionally, The Beach Boys are slated to perform concerts on May 8 and 9 [^]. Family Day is also scheduled for May 9 [^].
Oddsmakers and experts have identified several top contenders and longshots for the tournament. Brooks Koepka and Davis Thompson are currently listed as co-favorites, with Marco Penge and Rasmus Hojgaard also among the top contenders [^]. SportsLine's proprietary model, which has simulated the event 10,000 times, predicts that while Thompson is a co-favorite, he may barely crack the top 5 [^]. The model also suggests Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, despite longer odds, could rise on the leaderboard, and has identified another "massive longshot" projected to finish in the top 5 [^]. Experts widely favor Marco Penge to win, citing his recent elite form [^]. Other players garnering expert attention include Aaron Rai, Davis Thompson, and Rasmus Hojgaard, with Austin Smotherman and Kris Ventura noted as potential longshots [^]. The Dunes Golf and Beach Club course is thought to favor strong ballstrikers and players adept at maintaining precision in coastal winds [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
The price chart for this market is defined by a significant and abrupt upward movement within a newly established market. The implied probability of a hole-in-one occurring during the tournament opened at just 1.0% on May 4th. Over the next day, the price surged dramatically, rising 2,500% to its current level of 26.0% on May 5th. This entire price history consists of only three data points, indicating the market is in its earliest stage of price discovery. The sharp increase represents the most significant event on the chart.
This price spike coincides with the start of the official practice rounds for the tournament. However, the provided news context does not contain a specific catalyst, such as a practice round hole-in-one, to explain the magnitude of the re-pricing. The most critical technical factor is that the chart shows a total traded volume of zero contracts. This indicates the price movement is not the result of organic trading between buyers and sellers but is likely an adjustment by the market's creator or an automated maker. Because there have been no trades, the market shows no financial conviction from participants at any price level. Therefore, it is impossible to identify any support or resistance levels. The chart suggests a rapid shift in sentiment toward a "Yes" resolution, but this sentiment is untested and not yet validated by any market activity.

3. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if golfers record at least one hole-in-one in the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, scheduled for May 6-23, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Holes-in-one during regulation or playoffs count, verified by PGA Tour and ESPN. The market opened on May 4, 2026, and closes after the event or by May 20, 2026, at 8:00 PM EDT, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
1+ holes-in-one $0.58 $0.74 0%
2+ holes-in-one $0.97 $0.98 0%
3+ holes-in-one $0.97 $0.98 0%

Market Discussion

The prediction market focuses on whether a hole-in-one will occur at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, with correct contracts paying $1 [^]. While specific probabilities for a hole-in-one are not available, related discussions include implied probabilities for players like Marco Penge and Brice Garnett in Top 20 markets [^], and tournament favorites such as Brooks Koepka (+1650) for the event [^]. The tournament will be held at Dunes Golf and Beach Club, a par 71, 7200-yard course, with the winner receiving $720,000 [^].

4. What do historical PGA Tour statistics show about the frequency of holes-in-one in opposite-field events versus signature events?

Data on holes-in-one by event typeNot available for signature vs. opposite-field events (PGA Tour statistics [^])
Total PGA Tour holes-in-one1,297 since 1971 (PGA TOUR [^])
ShotLink event-type splitNot provided for hole-in-one frequency (ShotLink research [^])
PGA Tour statistics lack specific hole-in-one data by event type. Historical PGA Tour data does not contain specific information regarding the frequency of holes-in-one in opposite-field events compared to signature events [^]. Research consistently indicates the absence of such a breakdown, which prevents a direct comparison of ace rates between these two distinct event categories [^].
Aggregate hole-in-one data does not differentiate event types. The PGA TOUR has recorded a total of 1,297 holes-in-one since 1971 [^]. However, this figure is an overall aggregate and is not split by specific event type, such as signature versus opposite-field tournaments [^]. Similarly, ShotLink-based research, which analyzes hole-out and ace probabilities based on shot distance, does not provide an event-type distinction for hole-in-one frequencies [^].
Signature events lack specific hole-in-one rate statistics. While signature events are defined by their premium status, smaller fields, and larger purses, available sources do not include specific hole-in-one rate statistics for this category of tournaments [^].

5. How might the PGA TOUR's course setup choices for the par-3 holes at The Dunes Club impact the probability of a hole-in-one?

Pro-am ace length155 yards (12th hole) in 2025 [^]
Average ace lengthApproximately 147 yards [^]
Probability of at least one aceApproaching 1 in 1 during a four-day PGA TOUR event with 132 players [^][^][^][^][^]
PGA TOUR's par-3 setup choices at The Dunes Club directly influence hole-in-one probability. Shorter tee box positions and softer green conditions increase the likelihood of an ace, while longer yardages, firm greens, and challenging pin placements generally decrease it. These setup decisions are critical in determining how frequently players might achieve this rare feat.
Specific course elements at The Dunes Club greatly affect hole-in-one chances. To increase ace probability, the TOUR can utilize shorter tee box placements, such as on the 17th hole [^], or emulate the 12th hole, where a pro-am ace occurred at 155 yards [^]. Bringing holes closer to the average ace length of 147 yards enhances their "ace-friendly" nature [^]. Conversely, playing par-3s at their maximum lengths, like the 5th (190-215 yards) and 9th (219 yards), reduces the odds, as holing out becomes less probable with increased distance [^][^][^]. While softer greens promote aces, The Dunes Club is known for its firm and fast greens [^][^], which make it more challenging for shots to hold near the hole, thereby lowering ace chances [^][^]. Difficult pin positions—tucked near deep bunkers, on severe slopes, or at green edges—further hinder aces [^][^]. The Dunes Club's well-bunkered, slightly elevated greens often play smaller than their actual size [^][^]. Additionally, adverse weather conditions, particularly wind on coastal holes like the 9th, would impact the probability [^].
Tournament settings make at least one hole-in-one highly probable. The ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic has historically recorded multiple holes-in-one in its initial years [^]. Given these precedents, the cumulative probability of at least one ace occurring during a four-day PGA TOUR event with 132 players is very high, approaching a 1 in 1 likelihood [^][^][^][^][^].

6. How do the four par-3 holes at The Dunes Golf and Beach Club compare in terms of design, historical scoring, and susceptibility to wind?

Longest Par-3245 yards (Hole #12) [^][^]
Hole #9 Average Score3.16 in 2025 MBC [^][^]
Historical Hole-in-One SiteHole #5 (Sigel 1996) [^][^]
The Dunes Golf and Beach Club features diverse par-3 holes, each with distinct designs and lengths. Hole #17 measures 185 yards and is characterized by bunkering, while Hole #5 extends to 215 yards [^][^][^][^]. Hole #9 is 221 yards long, presenting an elevated green with ocean views and deep surrounding bunkers [^][^]. The longest of the par-3s is Hole #12 at 245 yards, known as Alligator Alley, which demands an all-carry shot over water and is widely considered difficult [^][^].
Scoring history reveals distinct challenges and opportunities on these holes. Notably, Hole #5 was the site of a hole-in-one by Sigel in 1996 [^][^]. Conversely, Hole #17 is identified as providing the best opportunity for a birdie late in a round [^][^]. During the 2025 MBC tournament, Hole #9 recorded an average score of 3.16 [^][^]. No hole-in-ones were recorded across all par-3s in either the 2024 or 2025 MBC tournaments [^][^].
Wind significantly impacts play on two of the par-3 holes. Hole #9 directly faces the prevailing wind, while Hole #12 is influenced by a crosswind originating from either the ocean or a nearby lake [^][^]. The available research does not provide specific details regarding the wind susceptibility for Hole #5 or Hole #17.

7. What publicly available datasets exist on career hole-in-one rates for players expected in the 2026 Myrtle Beach Classic field?

Public data for 2026 Myrtle Beach Classic career acesNot provided by available information [^]
ShotLink Public AccessNot currently available publicly [^]
NHIOR Record Keeping StartSince 2006 [^][^]
No public datasets specifically detail career hole-in-one rates for players expected in the 2026 Myrtle Beach Classic field. While the PGA TOUR tournament field URL identifies the anticipated player set for 2026 [^], available information does not provide sufficient data to identify such a dataset.
PGA TOUR ShotLink data is not publicly accessible for career ace rates. ShotLink serves as an underlying shot-by-shot data system for professional analysis [^]. However, the PGA TOUR indicates that ShotLink access is not currently available publicly through its ShotLink Intelligence Program form, suggesting limited or no open dataset downloads [^].
The National Hole-in-One Registry is insufficient for PGA TOUR player analysis. This registry offers a public lookup interface and has been recording hole-in-one achievements since 2006 [^][^]. Nonetheless, it is not a PGA Tour-specific, player-level "career ace rate" dataset and is likely biased toward submitted records, which often originate from non-professional players [^].

8. Based on climatological data for Myrtle Beach in May, how could typical wind and weather patterns affect scoring conditions during the 2026 Classic?

Wind DirectionPredominantly from the south, peaking at 44% on May 29th [^][^]
Humidity IncreaseMuggy conditions rising from 18% to 59% in May [^]
Chance of RainRising from 26% to 35% over the month [^][^]
Myrtle Beach in May typically offers favorable conditions for golf. Moderate winds, predominantly from the south, are characteristic of May in Myrtle Beach. Average hourly wind speeds generally decrease throughout the month, from approximately 10.3 miles per hour at the beginning to 9.4 miles per hour by the end, with a historical average of about 13.7 mph for the month [^]. Daily high temperatures warm from around 75°F (24°C) at the start of May to 81°F (27°C) by the conclusion, while average lows range from 59°F (15°C) to 67°F (19°C) [^][^]. These warm temperatures, combined with an average of 9 hours of daily sunshine, are generally considered conducive for golf [^][^].
However, increasing humidity and rain chances may impact player performance. A key factor influencing play is the rise in humidity throughout May, with muggy conditions significantly increasing from 18% to 59% of the time [^]. This elevated humidity could contribute to player fatigue and potentially result in a slight decrease in ball flight distance [^]. Furthermore, May typically sees a rising chance of rain, with the probability of a "wet day" increasing from 26% to 35% over the course of the month [^][^]. Average rainfall for May ranges from 2.8 to 3.6 inches, usually occurring over roughly 8 days [^][^][^]. These evolving conditions could collectively affect scoring at the 2026 Classic.

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic is scheduled from May 7–10, 2026, at the Dunes Golf and Beach Club [^] [^] . The official event-week schedule details competition rounds, with the first round on May 7, the second on May 8, the third on May 9, and the final round on May 10 [^][^]. These dates are crucial for market activity as player performance during these rounds will directly influence market probabilities. The event features a $4 million purse [^].
Beyond the tournament's conclusion, specific resolution dates for prediction markets will act as catalysts. For instance, the Polymarket "Top-20" market is set to resolve "Yes" if a player finishes T20 (including ties) by May 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET, using this as the final-results cutoff [^]. Additionally, Robinhood's "ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic: Hole-in-One" market page lists the event for May 6, 2026, implying that its resolution will follow the actual tournament play window [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 21, 2026
  • Closes: May 21, 2026

10. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic is scheduled from May 7–10, 2026, at the Dunes Golf and Beach Club [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: The official event-week schedule details competition rounds, with the first round on May 7, the second on May 8, the third on May 9, and the final round on May 10 [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: These dates are crucial for market activity as player performance during these rounds will directly influence market probabilities.
  • Trigger: The event features a $4 million purse [^] .

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 17 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPGAHOLEINONE-CAC26-3: NO (May 03, 2026)
  • KXPGAHOLEINONE-CAC26-2: NO (May 03, 2026)
  • KXPGAHOLEINONE-CAC26-1: NO (May 03, 2026)
  • KXPGAHOLEINONE-ZUCONO26-3: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
  • KXPGAHOLEINONE-ZUCONO26-2: NO (Apr 26, 2026)