Texas vs Detroit: Total Runs
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- The consensus Over/Under line has remained stable at 8.5 total runs.
- Critical statistical data for a strong directional shift is largely unavailable.
- Specific pitcher-batter career statistics for active players are not available.
- Umpire historical data and future weather forecasts are unavailable for May 1st.
- Detroit's top relievers show higher usage in games prior to May 1st.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 47.0% | 45.1% | Market higher by 1.9pp |
| Over 7.5 runs scored | 56.0% | 54.4% | Market higher by 1.6pp |
| Over 9.5 runs scored | 37.0% | 35.0% | Market higher by 2.0pp |
| Over 5.5 runs scored | 75.0% | 74.1% | Market higher by 0.9pp |
| Over 11.5 runs scored | 23.0% | 21.3% | Market higher by 1.7pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers collectively score more than 8.5 runs in their professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 1, 2026, at 6:40 PM EDT; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market will close and expire early if the event occurs, with a projected payout one minute after closing, or by May 4, 2026, at 6:40 PM EDT if the event has not occurred. Outcome verification is sourced from MLB.com.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 runs scored | $0.91 | $0.13 | 92% |
| Over 4.5 runs scored | $0.86 | $0.16 | 87% |
| Over 5.5 runs scored | $0.76 | $0.27 | 75% |
| Over 6.5 runs scored | $0.67 | $0.34 | 67% |
| Over 7.5 runs scored | $0.56 | $0.45 | 56% |
| Over 8.5 runs scored | $0.48 | $0.53 | 47% |
| Over 9.5 runs scored | $0.38 | $0.63 | 37% |
| Over 10.5 runs scored | $0.31 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Over 11.5 runs scored | $0.24 | $0.77 | 23% |
| Over 12.5 runs scored | $0.18 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Over 2.5 runs scored | $0.98 | $0.05 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Are Specific Pitcher-Batter Career Statistics Directly Available?
| Jack Leiter General Stats Source | Stats Against All Batters finder [^] |
|---|---|
| Jack Leiter Team Records Source | Career win/loss records against teams [^] |
| Kenta Maeda Lineup Data Source | Rangers Current Lineup Vs Kenta Maeda [^] |
5. What are Rangers' and Tigers' 14-day wRC+ and ISO splits?
| Opposing Pitcher Handedness (May 1, 2026) | Not available [^] |
|---|---|
| Texas Rangers 2026 Season ISO | Available [^] |
| Detroit Tigers 2026 Season wRC+ and ISO | Available [^] |
6. Are Umpire Stats and Weather Forecasts Available for May 1, 2026?
| Home Plate Umpire for May 1, 2026 | Not identified in available sources [^] |
|---|---|
| Umpire Strike Accuracy for May 1, 2026 | Specific data not available for this future game [^] |
| Gametime Wind Forecast at Comerica Park May 1, 2026 | Forecast not available in provided sources [^] |
7. What is the Over/Under for Rangers vs. Tigers on May 1, 2026?
| Opening Over/Under Line | 8.5 total runs [^] |
|---|---|
| Current Over/Under Line | 8.5 total runs [^] |
| Over/Under Line Movement | No movement [^] |
8. How Do Tigers and Rangers Bullpens Compare Prior to May 1st?
| Detroit Tigers Bullpen SIERA | 3.98 (2026 Season) [^] |
|---|---|
| Texas Rangers Bullpen ERA | 3.85 (2026 Season) [^] |
| Tigers High-Leverage Pitch Counts (April 28-29) | Foley 28, Miller 30, Chafin 14 [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 04, 2026
- Closes: May 04, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291840SFPHI-15: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291840SFPHI-14: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291840SFPHI-13: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291835HOUBAL-19: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291835HOUBAL-18: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
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