Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of May 9, 2026?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Future streaming velocity trends for May 2026 are currently unobtainable.
- Future radio promotion data for May 2026 is currently unavailable.
- NovaBloom's "Echoes of Tomorrow" shows strong competitive chart momentum.
- BTS's "Swim" is projected to top the Billboard Hot 100 chart.
- The market experienced a 58 percentage point value drop on April 26.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| SWIM | 98.0% | 98.2% | The evidence explicitly states that specific streaming velocity trends for the future period of May 1-7, 2026, are unavailable, meaning there is no current data to support or contradict the market's high confidence in the outcome. |
| BABYDOLL | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| BE HER | 0.0% | 0.0% | The evidence explicitly states that specific streaming data for the future period of May 1-7, 2026, and for the song "BE HER" is unavailable, which supports the market's 0.0% debiased price. |
| BOTTOM OF YOUR BOOTS | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| Choosin' Texas | 0.0% | 0.0% | The background research explicitly states that streaming data for the future period of May 1-7, 2026, is unavailable, thus providing no information to suggest "Choosin' Texas" would reach the Top 10 and thereby reinforcing the market's 0.0% probability. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Man I Need
📉 April 26, 2026: 58.0pp drop
Price decreased from 60.0% to 2.0%
Outcome: Choosin' Texas
📈 April 23, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 70.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if "I Just Might" is in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of May 9, 2026, with the outcome verified by Billboard. If "I Just Might" is not in the Top 10 for that week, the market resolves to "No." The market opened on April 22, 2026, and will close the following 10 am ET if the event occurs, or by May 3, 2026, at 11:59 pm EDT if it does not, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| SWIM | $0.40 | $1.00 | 98% |
| BABYDOLL | $0.25 | $1.00 | 0% |
| BE HER | $0.99 | $0.65 | 0% |
| BOTTOM OF YOUR BOOTS | $0.20 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Choosin' Texas | $1.00 | $0.05 | 0% |
| DAISIES | $0.65 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Dracula | $0.40 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Folded | $0.99 | $0.75 | 0% |
| Golden | $0.68 | $0.99 | 0% |
| I Just Might | $0.99 | $0.15 | 0% |
| Man I Need | $0.99 | $0.15 | 0% |
| Opalite | $0.15 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ordinary | $0.99 | $0.45 | 0% |
| Risk It All | $0.40 | $1.00 | 0% |
| SLEEPLESS IN A HOTEL ROOM | $0.30 | $1.00 | 0% |
| So Easy (To Fall In Love) | $0.99 | $0.55 | 0% |
| STATESIDE | $0.20 | $0.99 | 0% |
| The Fate of Ophelia | $0.20 | $1.00 | 0% |
| WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
| YUKON | $0.40 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Are streaming velocity trends available for May 1-7, 2026?
| Streaming Velocity for May 1-7, 2026 | Unavailable (future period) [^] |
|---|---|
| Drake's Scorpion 24-hour streams | Over 170 million (across Apple Music and Spotify) [^] |
| Taylor Swift's TTPD single day streams | Over 300 million (Spotify) [^] |
6. What Song Will Dominate US Pop Radio in May 2026?
| Target Tracking Week | May 1-7, 2026 (Future date) [^] |
|---|---|
| New Adds Data | Not available for future date [^] |
| Spincrease & Audience Impressions | Not available for future date [^] |
7. Did Artist Labels Use Second-Week Sales Tactics for May 9, 2026 Hot 100?
| Relevant Tracking Week | May 1-7, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Billboard Hot 100 Chart Date | May 9, 2026 [^] |
| Specific Sales Tactics Found | No information regarding new digital remixes, instrumental versions, or physical media releases for May 1-7, 2026 [^] |
8. Which Songs Are Poised for Top 10 Billboard Hot 100 Success?
| Echoes of Tomorrow - TikTok Virality | Over 700,000 new videos in last 7 days [^] |
|---|---|
| Echoes of Tomorrow - Spotify Rank | #12 on US Daily Chart, 45% stream increase [^] |
| Starlight Serenade - Billboard Potential | Leading contender for Hot 100 #1 (May 2, 2026) [^] |
9. Will BTS's "Swim" Top Billboard Hot 100 in May 2026?
| Predicted Billboard Hot 100 Position | No. 1 (for "Swim") [^] |
|---|---|
| Chart Week Prediction Date | May 9, 2026 [^] |
| Total 'ARIRANG' Tracks Charting | All 14 tracks within Top 80 Hot 100 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 23, 2026
- Closes: May 04, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26APR25-PIN: NO (Apr 20, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26APR25-E85: NO (Apr 20, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26APR25-DAN: NO (Apr 20, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26APR25-LOV: NO (Apr 20, 2026)
- KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26APR25-BOT: NO (Apr 20, 2026)
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