Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Iván Cepeda Castro is most likely to win the Colombian presidential election first round.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Iván Cepeda leads significantly in recent Invamer polls at 44%.
  • Cepeda secured extensive support from over 900 labor union leaders.
  • Cepeda's 44% polling is below the 50% needed for outright victory.
  • Paloma Valencia is a leading candidate; runoff gap reportedly narrowing.
  • Valencia garnered endorsements from 17 influential former mayors.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Iván Cepeda Castro 89.0% 92.8% He is widely considered the dominant frontrunner in the presidential election.
Abelardo de la Espriella 8.3% 6.4% This candidate lacks the broad support needed to challenge the frontrunner.
Paloma Valencia 3.1% 0.7% She has not demonstrated enough electoral support to win the first round.
Daniel Quintero 0.1% 0.0% He has negligible support in the current political landscape.
Sergio Fajardo 0.1% 0.0% He lacks the necessary public backing to win the first round.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
Based on the chart data, this market has been characterized by a prolonged sideways trend, indicating a stable but not absolute consensus. The price has been trading within a relatively tight 13-point range, with a clear support level established around 81.0% and resistance near 93.9%. Since its inception at 88.0%, the price has shown little net change, currently sitting at 89.0%. This consolidation pattern suggests that traders have maintained a consistent view over the market's lifespan without any major catalysts to significantly alter their collective opinion.
The provided context does not offer specific news or events to explain the minor price fluctuations within this range. Therefore, the oscillations between the support and resistance levels appear to be driven by internal market dynamics rather than reactions to external developments. The total volume of 11,647 contracts spread across 310 data points indicates steady but not overwhelming participation. The varying daily volume, as seen in the sample data, suggests periods of low activity interspersed with moments of engagement, which is typical for a market awaiting new, decisive information. The lack of a high-volume breakout in either direction reinforces the idea of a market in a holding pattern.
Overall, market sentiment points to a high and persistent belief that the "YES" outcome will occur, as the price has never dropped below 81.0%. However, the inability to break through the 93.9% resistance level and sustain a move towards 100% suggests that the market is still pricing in a small but persistent degree of uncertainty. The chart reflects a confident but watchful market, waiting for a future event or piece of information to either confirm its long-held conviction or force a significant re-evaluation of the odds.

3. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

Here's a summary of the contract rules for this Kalshi prediction market:

1. YES resolution trigger: The market resolves to YES if Iván Cepeda Castro officially wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. This means he is declared the winner by the National Electoral Council and either takes office or the scheduled inauguration date passes without another candidate taking office. 2. NO resolution trigger: The market resolves to NO if Iván Cepeda Castro does not win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, as this is a mutually exclusive event. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market opened on March 5, 2026, at 10:00 am EST. It will close early upon official declaration of the winner, or by May 31, 2027, at 10:00 am EDT at the latest, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. 4. Special settlement conditions: The National Electoral Council verifies outcomes. Contested results are resolved by the final certified outcome from the relevant electoral authority or highest court, or by the individual recognized by the majority of Source Agencies in cases of competing claims. The market remains open for up to two years for postponements or re-run elections if results are annulled before the winner takes office.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Iván Cepeda Castro $0.89 $0.12 89%
Abelardo de la Espriella $0.09 $0.92 8%
Paloma Valencia $0.03 $0.97 3%
Daniel Quintero $0.01 $1.00 0%
Sergio Fajardo $0.00 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

The main discussion revolves around the interpretation of "first round winner," with traders debating if it means achieving a simple plurality of votes or an absolute majority (50%+1) to win the election outright, as per Colombian law. Many participants argue that if the absolute majority rule applies, Iván Cepeda Castro's current 89% probability is highly overvalued, as he is unlikely to secure 50%+1 of the votes needed to avoid a second round. This implies a strong argument for "No" on Cepeda, with some viewing it as an "easy win" due to the perceived ambiguity in the market's specific rules versus typical election outcomes.

4. Which Colombian Pollsters Were Most Accurate in Recent Elections?

Invamer 2022 Average Error1.7 percentage points [^]
Invamer 2022 Bogotá LeadGustavo Petro 57.1% [^]
Invamer 2018 Antioquia LeadIván Duque 54.5% [^]
Invamer and CNC consistently demonstrated low error margins in recent elections. Across the 2018 and 2022 Colombian presidential election cycles, Invamer and Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC) consistently exhibited the lowest margins of error in predicting first-round presidential vote shares. In 2022, Invamer reported an average error of 1.7 percentage points, while CNC followed with 2.4 percentage points [^]. For the 2018 election, Invamer's Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 1.3%, slightly better than CNC's 1.6% [^]. While Cifras y Conceptos had a marginally lower RMSE in 2018, Invamer and CNC were the most consistent top performers across both cycles where detailed accuracy data is available.
Invamer's 2022 final poll showed distinct regional candidate leads. According to Invamer's final poll published on May 11, 2022, ahead of the first round, Gustavo Petro held a significant lead in Bogotá with 57.1% of the vote intention. Petro also led in the Pacífico region, which includes Valle del Cauca, securing 51.8%. Conversely, Federico Gutiérrez was the frontrunner in Antioquia with 40.4% [^].
Invamer's 2018 poll also revealed clear regional voting patterns. The May 14, 2018 Invamer poll for the first round indicated that Iván Duque had a substantial lead in Antioquia, garnering 54.5% of the vote intention. In Bogotá, Gustavo Petro led with 40.5% [^]. However, specific regional breakdowns for Valle del Cauca from Invamer's final polls for 2018, and any regional breakdowns for these departments from CNC's final polls for any cycle, are not available in the provided sources.

5. Which Candidate Gained Most New Formal Endorsements?

Iván Cepeda: Labor Leaders EndorsingOver 900 leaders from 300 labor unions [^]
Iván Cepeda: Key Union EndorsementCentral Unitaria de Trabajadores (CUT) [^]
Paloma Valencia: Former Mayors Endorsing17 former mayors from various cities [^]
Iván Cepeda secured significant new endorsements from organized labor. His campaign has received substantial formal endorsements from organized labor in the 30 days preceding the election. Over 900 leaders from 300 distinct labor unions have formally pledged their support [^]. This includes a crucial endorsement from the Central Unitaria de Trabajadores (CUT), a prominent Colombian labor federation, indicating a broad mobilization of union support [^].
Paloma Valencia garnered support from influential regional political figures. During the same period, Paloma Valencia's campaign secured endorsements from notable regional political figures. Her campaign received support from 17 former mayors across various Colombian cities, representing local leadership and regional political bosses [^].
Cepeda received more extensive endorsements than Valencia overall. A comparative analysis indicates Iván Cepeda accumulated the most extensive new formal endorsements across the specified categories. His support base, encompassing over 900 leaders from 300 labor unions, including the CUT [^], represents a significantly larger volume of organizational and individual endorsements. While Paloma Valencia garnered support from a notable 17 influential regional ex-mayors [^], the greater number of leaders and organizations endorsing Cepeda within the labor sector suggests a broader base of new support.

6. What is Colombian Presidential Candidate Social Media Sentiment on Security and Employment?

Top Share of Voice (Jan-Mar 2026)Gustavo Petro [^]
Highest Positive Mentions (Jan-Mar 2026)Rodolfo Hernández (24%) [^]
Net Positive Sentiment (Up to Mar 2026)Rodolfo Hernández (29% positive vs. 20% negative) [^]
Specific social media analytics data detailing net sentiment scores or share of voice tied to the keywords 'seguridad' (security) and 'empleo' (employment) for Colombian presidential candidates in the two weeks preceding the vote is unavailable. Existing web research does not contain such specific data for the approximate May 17-31, 2026 period, which precedes the anticipated first-round election on May 31, 2026 [^]. Most social media analytics reports for the 2026 Colombian presidential election cover broader timeframes, typically from January to March 2026 [^] or up to April 2026 [^].
Early 2026 analyses provide general candidate social media performance metrics. Reports from January to March 2026 indicate that 'seguridad' was a part of the political conversation [^]. During this period, Digimind's analysis showed Gustavo Petro leading in overall share of voice (mention volume), followed by Sergio Fajardo and Federico Gutiérrez [^]. In terms of general sentiment for that same timeframe, Rodolfo Hernández registered the highest percentage of positive mentions at 24%, with Federico Gutiérrez at 21%, and Gustavo Petro at 20% [^]. A separate analysis up to March 2026 also identified Gustavo Petro with the highest volume of overall mentions [^]. This report detailed net sentiment among major candidates, showing Rodolfo Hernández with a net positive sentiment (29% positive vs. 20% negative mentions), Gustavo Petro with a net negative sentiment (31% positive vs. 52% negative mentions), and Federico Gutiérrez with a slightly positive net sentiment (28% positive vs. 24% negative mentions) [^].
However, these analyses do not link data to specific keywords or timeframe. It is important to note that the figures presented represent general candidate performance on social media across broad topics and are not specific to discussions of 'seguridad' or 'empleo', nor do they cover the two-week period immediately preceding the vote as requested.

7. Which Candidate Loses Most Voters to Centrist Sergio Fajardo?

Leading Candidate PollingAround 44% for Iván Cepeda [^]
Sergio Fajardo's PositionFollows behind frontrunners [^]
Specific Voter Drain Data to FajardoNot available in detailed cross-tabulations [^]
Current research lacks specific data to track voter movement to Sergio Fajardo. The available web research does not contain the detailed voter intention cross-tabulations or specific polling data required to determine which candidate is losing the highest percentage of their potential voters directly to centrist Sergio Fajardo. Consequently, it is not possible to identify the specific origin of Fajardo's support from other candidates, nor can an assessment be made regarding whether any such 'voter drain' towards him is accelerating or decelerating over time.
General election polls provide overall support but not specific voter transfers. While existing sources offer insights into the overall standings of candidates in the Colombian presidential election, they do not provide detailed data on voter switching between candidates. For instance, recent Invamer polls indicate Iván Cepeda as a leading candidate, polling at approximately 44%, with a narrowing runoff gap against Paloma Valencia [^]. Sergio Fajardo is noted to be trailing behind frontrunners such as Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Paloma Valencia, as well as Claudia López [^]. However, these polls do not specify the origin of Fajardo's support from other particular candidates, nor do they track the rate of voter movement to or from him. The available information primarily focuses on general candidate support and prediction market odds [^], which do not contain the cross-tabulation data necessary to answer the specific questions regarding voter drain trends.

8. What Specifics are Known About Colombian Presidential Debate & Voter Shifts?

Final Debate Format (Colombia)Details not specified [^]
Final Debate Moderators (Colombia)Details not specified [^]
Colombian Voter Volatility Data Post-DebateNot available for specific demographics [^]
Specifics on the final Colombian presidential debate format are unavailable. The available research does not provide precise details regarding the format or moderators for the final televised presidential debate within the Colombian presidential election. Although sources indicate that a debate challenge occurred and was accepted by a candidate named Cepeda as part of the Colombian election cycle, there is no information on the specific format or the individuals who would moderate what would constitute the "final televised presidential debate" for this election [^].
Colombian election voter volatility data is not available. The provided research does not contain data specific to voter intention volatility following the final debate of the Colombian presidential election. Consequently, it does not identify which candidate's core demographic exhibited the highest volatility within 48 hours after such an event. While some sources discuss how voter views and attitudes shifted after presidential debates in the context of US elections, specifically concerning candidates like Biden and Trump, these do not provide the requested demographic volatility statistics tied to a final Colombian presidential debate [^].

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 31, 2027
  • Closes: May 31, 2027

10. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

12. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.