Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin's price to be $63,000 or above on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $21.3 billion in net inflows during 2025.
- FOMC projects a 4.1% Federal Funds Rate for year-end 2025.
- 2024 election outcomes will shape financial committee leadership and crypto bills.
- Significant US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows created upward price pressure.
- A more crypto-friendly regulatory environment is expected to develop in 2025.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $75,500 or above | 89.0% | 90.5% | Model higher by 1.5pp |
| $76,000 or above | 82.0% | 84.3% | Model higher by 2.3pp |
| $75,000 or above | 91.0% | 92.3% | Model higher by 1.3pp |
| $78,000 or above | 44.0% | 47.7% | Model higher by 3.7pp |
| $77,000 or above | 67.0% | 70.4% | Model higher by 3.4pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a stable, sideways trend, trading within an extremely narrow range of 96.0% to 99.0%. The price began at 96.0% and has since settled near the current 98.0% level, showing very little volatility over its history. This tight price channel suggests a strong and unwavering market consensus. The consistently high probability indicates that traders are overwhelmingly confident that the price of Bitcoin will be above the market's strike price ($62,999.99) at the time of resolution. The sentiment is firmly bullish on this specific outcome.
The total traded volume of 977 contracts, while notable, has not induced any significant price swings, which reinforces the high level of conviction among participants. A clear support level has been established at the 96.0% floor, with resistance appearing at the 99.0% peak of the range. The market is currently consolidating around the 98.0% mark. As there is no additional context provided regarding market-moving news or events, the minor price fluctuations within this established range cannot be attributed to any specific catalyst. Instead, they reflect minor adjustments in the market's very high degree of certainty.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market resolves to "Yes" if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 24, 2026, is above $77,999.99; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 24, 2026, with the official value being the average of 60 BRTI prices collected during the last minute before expiration, and payout is projected for 5:06 PM EDT on the same day.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $70,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 99% |
| $71,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 99% |
| $72,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 99% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $67,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $68,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $68,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $69,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 98% |
| $70,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 98% |
| $71,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 98% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 97% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 97% |
| $72,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 96% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.99 | $0.04 | 96% |
| $69,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 95% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.98 | $0.04 | 95% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.97 | $0.05 | 94% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.95 | $0.07 | 93% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.92 | $0.10 | 91% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.88 | $0.15 | 89% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.82 | $0.20 | 82% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.75 | $0.28 | 76% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.66 | $0.37 | 67% |
| $77,500 or above | $0.56 | $0.47 | 55% |
| $78,000 or above | $0.46 | $0.57 | 44% |
| $78,500 or above | $0.36 | $0.67 | 36% |
| $79,000 or above | $0.27 | $0.76 | 28% |
| $83,000 or above | $0.04 | $0.99 | 22% |
| $79,500 or above | $0.21 | $0.82 | 21% |
| $80,500 or above | $0.10 | $0.92 | 11% |
| $80,000 or above | $0.15 | $0.88 | 8% |
| $81,000 or above | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| $81,500 or above | $0.06 | $0.96 | 4% |
| $82,000 or above | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| $82,500 or above | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
| $83,500 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $85,500 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $86,000 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $86,500 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $87,000 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $84,000 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $84,500 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $85,000 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $87,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Are Year-End 2025 Federal Funds Rate Projections?
| FOMC Median FFR Projection Year-End 2025 | 4.1% (December 2024 SEP) [^] |
|---|---|
| Market-Implied FFR Year-End 2025 | 4.6% to 4.8% (Fed Funds futures) [^] |
| Market vs. FOMC Expectation | Market expects higher rate than FOMC [^] |
The FOMC projects a 4.1% Federal Funds Rate for year-end 2025. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) December 2024 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a median projection of 4.1% for the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at year-end 2025 [^]. This figure reflects the collective outlook of FOMC participants on the appropriate level for the rate by that time. Some financial news sources interpreted the December 2024 dot plot as signaling two rate cuts for 2025 [^].
Market expectations indicate a higher Federal Funds Rate for year-end 2025. Conversely, market expectations, derived from Fed Funds futures after the December 18, 2024, FOMC policy announcement, suggested an approximate year-end FFR of 4.6% to 4.8% [^]. Market pricing implied slightly less than two 25-basis point rate cuts for 2025 [^].
Significant disparity exists between FOMC and market Federal Funds Rate projections. This indicates a noticeable difference between market and FOMC projections; the market-implied rate for year-end 2025 (4.6% to 4.8%) is higher than the FOMC's median projection of 4.1% [^]. This disparity suggests that market participants generally anticipate fewer or smaller FFR reductions by the end of 2025 compared to the median outlook of FOMC members.
5. What were the US spot Bitcoin and crypto ETF inflows in 2025?
| 2025 Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows | $21.3 billion (Farside Investors) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2025 US Spot Crypto ETF Inflows | $32 billion [^] |
| Nov 6, 2025 Daily Inflow | $239.9 million (Farside data) [^] |
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $21.3 billion in net inflows during 2025. The cumulative net inflows into all US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached $21.3 billion for the full calendar year of 2025, according to the final tally reported by Farside Investors [^]. This figure provides insight into the persistence of institutional demand for Bitcoin post-halving [^].
Broader US spot crypto ETFs attracted $32 billion in total inflows for the year. While Farside Investors specifically reported the $21.3 billion for Bitcoin spot ETFs, other sources indicated that US spot crypto ETFs collectively brought in a broader $32 billion in inflows throughout 2025 [^]. This demonstrates a significant capital influx into the overall crypto market during that period. Daily flow data for 2025 further highlighted consistent activity, including a $239.9 million net inflow on November 6, 2025, with IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB leading, based on Farside data [^].
6. How Will 2024 Elections Shape Financial Committee Leadership & Crypto Bills?
| Senate Banking Committee Chair (Early 2025) | Sherrod Brown (D-OH) if Democrats maintain majority, or Tim Scott (R-SC) if Republicans gain majority [1-4, 9] [^] |
|---|---|
| House Financial Services Committee Chair (Early 2025) | New Republican if GOP maintains majority, or Maxine Waters (D-CA) if Democrats gain majority [5-7] [^] |
| FIT21 Act Prioritization | Advancement highly dependent on committee leadership; less likely with skeptical chairs [^] |
Committee leadership hinges on 2024 election outcomes for both chambers. The leadership of both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee in early 2025 will be significantly influenced by the outcomes of the 2024 US elections [1-7]. The Senate Banking Committee's chairmanship depends on the 2024 Senate election results and the re-election of current Chair Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who is generally crypto-skeptical [1-4]. If Democrats retain the Senate majority and Brown is re-elected, he would likely remain chair. However, if Republicans secure the Senate majority, Tim Scott (R-SC), who is perceived as more open to digital assets, is expected to assume the chairmanship [1-4, 9]. This expectation is further supported by a '2025 Banking Committee Year-in-Review' attributed to 'Chairman Scott' from the committee's newsroom [^].
House Financial Services Committee leadership will change regardless of party. The House Financial Services Committee is certain to see new leadership in early 2025, regardless of which party controls the chamber [5-7]. Current Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-NC), a key advocate for the FIT21 Act and generally pro-crypto, is not indicated to continue in his role [5-7]. If Republicans maintain their majority, a new Republican chair, likely open to crypto but perhaps less intensely so than McHenry, would be selected. Conversely, if Democrats gain a majority, Maxine Waters (D-CA), known for her crypto-skeptical views, would likely reassume the chairmanship [5-7].
Prioritization of the FIT21 Act faces significant hurdles ahead. These leadership changes will directly bear on the prioritization of key legislation, such as the FIT21 Act [1-7]. Without its primary advocate, Patrick McHenry, as chair, the prioritization of a comprehensive market structure bill like the FIT21 Act would face significant hurdles, especially if skeptical leaders gain influence in either committee [^].
7. Can Bitcoin Addresses Holding 0.1 BTC Growth Be Tracked?
| Addresses holding >= 0.1 BTC | Tracked metric for retail accumulation trends [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Glassnode Report Q1 2026 | "Range-Bound Under Pressure" Week 07-2026 [^] |
| Data for YoY growth calculation | Available in Glassnode reports about Q1 2026 [^], [^], [^] |
Specific year-over-year growth rates for Q1 2026 are not directly extractable. While a precise numerical value for the year-over-year growth rate of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC by the end of Q1 2026 is not directly available from the provided source titles and URLs, Glassnode is a key on-chain data provider that tracks such metrics. The number of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC is a recognized indicator for observing retail accumulation trends in the Bitcoin market [^]. Their reports consistently contain the underlying data necessary to perform this calculation.
Relevant Glassnode reports for Q1 2026 contain necessary data. Highly pertinent sources for detailed on-chain data and trends pertaining to Q1 2026 include specific Glassnode reports such as "Range-Bound Under Pressure" from Week 07-2026 [^], news summarizing Glassnode's Q1 2026 insights [^], and collaborative analyses like "Charting Crypto Q1 2026 with Coinbase" [^]. These analyses are designed to reveal shifts in accumulation, new address growth [^], and the distribution of supply among various holder cohorts [^], [^], thereby offering crucial insights into investor behavior and market structure. The data points within these types of Q1 2026 reports would enable the calculation of the year-over-year growth rate for addresses holding 0.1 BTC or more.
8. What Is Bitcoin's June 2026 Options Open Interest and Implied Volatility?
| June 2026 BTC Options Highest OI Strike | Not explicitly detailed in research (Jan 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| June 2026 BTC ATM Implied Volatility | Not explicitly detailed in research (Jan 2026) [^] |
| March 2026 BTC Options Open Interest | Approximately $14 billion - $15 billion [^] |
Specific Bitcoin options data for June 2026 is unavailable from research. As of January 2026, the strike price with the highest open interest for Bitcoin (BTC) options contracts expiring in June 2026 on the Deribit exchange, as well as the implied volatility for at-the-money (ATM) options for that expiry, were not explicitly found in the provided web research results. Although platforms such as Glassnode [^], Pandabull [^], and The Block [^] track Bitcoin options data, including open interest by strike and implied volatility, the precise numerical figures for the June 2026 expiry were not present. Deribit itself [^] serves as the primary source for such real-time and historical options data.
General Bitcoin options trends were noted for other expiries. While specific data for June 2026 was not found, broader observations regarding Bitcoin options activity were documented across different periods. For example, a "massive open interest build" was noted for Deribit's January 30 calls [^]. Discussions around options expiring in March 2026 highlighted significant open interest, with reports citing approximately $14 billion [^] to $15 billion [^] in expiring contracts. For that particular March 2026 expiry, the $75,000 strike was identified as a potential "price magnet" [^]. These insights, however, relate to different expiries or timeframes and do not provide the specific data points requested for the June 2026 expiry as of January 2026.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 24, 2026
- Expiration: May 01, 2026
- Closes: April 24, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26APR2308-T86799.99: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2308-T86699.99: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2308-T86599.99: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2308-T86499.99: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR2308-T86399.99: NO (Apr 23, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
