Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin's price to be $64,000 or above on April 16, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced massive institutional inflows through Q1 2026.
- Bitcoin miners significantly reduced selling, entering an accumulation phase.
- Strong buying pressure and reduced supply are observed for Bitcoin.
- Deribit Bitcoin options consistently demonstrate a notable put skew.
- Comprehensive US crypto market structure bills previously failed to pass.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $74,500 or above | 83.0% | 88.7% | Model higher by 5.7pp |
| $75,000 or above | 54.0% | 65.4% | Model higher by 11.4pp |
| $74,000 or above | 94.0% | 96.2% | Model higher by 2.2pp |
| $74,250 or above | 93.0% | 95.5% | Model higher by 2.5pp |
| $74,750 or above | 72.0% | 80.6% | Model higher by 8.6pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price has been stable, exhibiting a sideways trend within an extremely narrow band between 98.0% and 99.0%. The chart shows a single, minor upward movement from its starting price of 98.0% to the current 99.0%. Given the absence of any specific news or contextual information, the direct cause for this one-percent shift is not apparent from the data provided. The consistently high probability indicates a very strong market sentiment, with participants pricing the outcome as a near certainty.
Trading volume is exceptionally low, with only three contracts traded in total. This minimal activity suggests a lack of broad market participation and conviction behind the current price. While the probability implies a strong consensus, the low liquidity means the price has been set by a very small number of trades and could be sensitive to new activity. The price range itself defines the key levels, with 98.0% acting as a temporary support and 99.0% as the immediate resistance, though these levels are not well-established due to the thin volume.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on April 16, 2026, is above $74,999.99; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market closes and resolves on April 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, with payouts projected shortly after. The official and final value is determined by averaging 60 BRTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $67,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $67,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $67,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $68,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $68,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $68,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $68,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $69,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $69,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $69,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $69,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $71,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $71,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $71,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $73,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $71,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $72,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $72,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 98% |
| $72,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| $72,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 97% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 96% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.97 | $0.04 | 96% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.95 | $0.06 | 94% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.94 | $0.07 | 93% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.87 | $0.17 | 83% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.73 | $0.30 | 72% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.53 | $0.49 | 54% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.32 | $0.69 | 34% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.18 | $0.84 | 19% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $77,500 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $78,000 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $79,500 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| $77,750 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| $78,250 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,750 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,000 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,250 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,750 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,000 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $81,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $81,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $81,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $81,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $82,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $82,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $82,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $82,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $83,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $83,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $83,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $83,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. How did US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows trend from 2025 to 2026?
| Cumulative Net Flow (Jan 2025-Mar 2026) | $228.926 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| Total Net Inflows (Full Year 2025) | $229.426 billion [^] |
| Total Net Outflows (Q1 2026) | $500 million [^] |
For the period between January 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated significant net inflows. These ETFs collectively experienced a cumulative net inflow of $228.926 billion. This overall figure includes substantial net inflows of $229.426 billion recorded throughout the entirety of 2025 [^].
Early 2026 reversed the trend, but March showed a strong rebound. The trend shifted in the first quarter of 2026, with these ETFs registering $500 million in total net outflows [^]. Despite these initial quarterly outflows, March 2026 marked a notable turnaround, achieving $1.3 billion in inflows, which was the first monthly gain of 2026 [^].
Market trends diverged between 2025's growth and 2026's volatility. Comparing these flows to the period immediately following their January 2024 approval, the massive inflows throughout 2025, nearing $230 billion, highlight a phase of robust growth and sustained institutional interest post-launch [^]. The subsequent net outflows observed in Q1 2026, even with a strong rebound in March, indicate a potentially more volatile or mixed flow environment compared to the consistent bullish trend seen in 2025 [^].
5. What Was Bitcoin Miners' Net Position Change in Q4 2025-Q1 2026?
| Miner Net Position | Net accumulation or significantly reduced selling (2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| BTC Absorbed by Accumulation Addresses | 67,000 BTC [^] |
| Period of Shift | Q4 2025 into Q1 2026 (Reports from 2026 [^]) |
Bitcoin miners significantly reduced selling, entering an accumulation phase. From Q4 2025 into Q1 2026, Bitcoin miners predominantly shifted into a net accumulation phase, characterized by a substantial slowdown in miner-led selling after the 2024 halving event. This period indicated a clear movement away from net distribution towards net accumulation [^].
On-chain data confirms miners retained or acquired more Bitcoin. Analysis from this timeframe shows that accumulation addresses absorbed 67,000 BTC, coinciding with a reduction in miner-led selling [^]. This behavior suggests a positive or less negative 'Miner Net Position Change' when observed over a 90-day moving average, implying that miners were either retaining more of their mined Bitcoin or actively acquiring more, contributing to a net positive sentiment regarding miner holdings on the blockchain [^].
6. What Does Deribit's Bitcoin Options Put Skew Reveal?
| Typical Skew for Long-Dated Options | Put skew [^] |
|---|---|
| Put Skew Definition | IV of 25-delta OTM puts > IV of 25-delta OTM calls [^] |
| Institutional Demand Indication | Demand for downside protection [^] |
Bitcoin options on Deribit consistently show a notable put skew [^] . This market phenomenon, particularly evident for long-dated expiries such as December 2025, indicates that the implied volatility of 25-delta out-of-the-money put options is typically higher than that of comparable 25-delta out-of-the-money call options [^]. Financial analytics platforms confirm this dynamic across various BTC options expiries, revealing a "Put Skew Term Structure" where puts consistently command a premium, especially for longer maturities [^].
This persistent put skew reflects institutional demand for downside protection [^] . For long-dated Bitcoin options, including those expiring in December 2025, a higher implied volatility for puts relative to calls suggests institutional investors prioritize paying a premium for downside protection over equivalent upside exposure [^]. This sustained demand for hedging against potential significant price drops highlights a cautious market sentiment and the implementation of long-term risk management strategies, rather than an aggressive pursuit of extreme upside gains [^].
7. By Q1 2026, what percentage of the top 100 public
Research data not available.
8. What Is the Current Status of US Crypto Market Structure Bills?
| FIT21 (H.R.4763) Status | Passed House, did not become law in 118th Congress [^] |
|---|---|
| CLARITY Act (H.R.3633) Status | Introduced for 119th Congress (2025-2026) [^] |
| H.R.3633 Final Status | Undetermined, 119th Congress has not convened [^] |
The previous comprehensive crypto bill did not become law. The 'Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act' (FIT21), designated as H.R.4763 during the 118th United States Congress, passed the House of Representatives with bipartisan support [^]. However, it did not advance through the Senate and consequently expired without becoming law at the conclusion of the 118th Congress [^]. A successor legislative effort, the 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025' (H.R.3633), also known as the CLARITY Act, has been introduced for the 119th Congress (2025-2026) as a comprehensive bill intended to establish a market structure and provide regulatory clarity for digital assets [^].
H.R.3633's legislative future remains uncertain by 2027. As the 119th Congress is scheduled to begin its session in January 2025, no legislative actions beyond its introduction have yet occurred for H.R.3633 [^]. Given that the 119th Congress has not yet convened and its legislative process will span from January 2025 to January 2027, the final legislative status of H.R.3633 or any other comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure bill by the end of its session in January 2027 cannot be definitively predicted or determined at this time [^]. For a bill to become law, it must pass both chambers of Congress in identical form and then be signed by the President, all within the lifespan of the 119th Congress [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 16, 2026
- Expiration: April 23, 2026
- Closes: April 16, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26APR1614-T83299.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1614-T83199.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1614-T83099.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1614-T82999.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1614-T82899.99: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
