How high will Hyperliquid get in April?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Strong CEX listings underpin Hyperliquid token's market presence.
- HYPE's initial circulating supply is limited to 25% of total.
- Airdrop incorporates vesting schedules and anti-dumping mechanisms.
- Hyperliquid's implied FDV is $763.9 million, based on protocol fees.
- No specific HYPE Token Generation Event date confirmed for April.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $57.50 | 34.0% | 35.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $50.00 | 92.0% | 92.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $55.00 | 34.0% | 35.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $52.50 | 39.0% | 40.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $47.50 | 50.0% | 92.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $50.00
📈 April 14, 2026: 44.0pp spike
Price increased from 48.0% to 92.0%
📈 April 13, 2026: 38.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 48.0%
📉 April 12, 2026: 26.0pp drop
Price decreased from 36.0% to 10.0%
Outcome: Above $47.50
📉 April 11, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 55.0% to 47.0%
📈 April 10, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 38.0% to 55.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the trimmed mean of the minute-by-minute CF U_HYPEUSD_RTI price for HYPE ever exceeds $55.00 between market issuance and 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. This price is calculated by removing the top and bottom 20% of values from minute-by-minute data provided by CF Benchmarks. If the price never meets this threshold by the deadline or if CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, the market resolves to "No," and it will close early if the "Yes" condition is met.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $50.00 | $0.95 | $0.95 | 92% |
| Above $47.50 | $0.93 | $0.94 | 50% |
| Above $52.50 | $0.91 | $0.94 | 39% |
| Above $55.00 | $0.45 | $0.94 | 34% |
| Above $57.50 | $0.34 | $0.95 | 34% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is Hyperliquid's Implied Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV)?
| Hyperliquid 30-day Protocol Fees | ~$2.86 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Comparable DEX P/F Multiple (GMX) | ~22.0x [^] |
| Implied FDV for Hyperliquid | ~$763.9 million [^] |
6. What is the Initial Circulating Supply and Vesting Schedule of HYPE Tokens?
| Initial Circulating Supply | 25% of total supply (250,000,000 HYPE) [^] |
|---|---|
| Genesis Airdrop Allocation | 24% of total supply (240,000,000 HYPE) [^] |
| Insider Vesting Schedule | 3 years linear vesting with 6-month cliff [^] |
7. What was Hyperliquid (HYPE) token's launch valuation and CEX listings?
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) pre-market valuation | $3 billion according to one report [^] |
|---|---|
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) debut Fully Diluted Value (FDV) | $4.2 billion [^] |
| Confirmed Tier-1 CEX Listings | Bybit, Coinbase [^] |
8. Does HYPE Airdrop Include Anti-Dumping Mechanisms?
| Vesting Period Duration | 6 months for a portion of tokens [^] |
|---|---|
| Immediate Claimability | Yes, for other portions based on eligibility [^] |
| Anti-Dumping Method | Staggered token release over time [^] |
9. Is There a Confirmed HYPE Token TGE Date in April?
| April TGE Confirmation | Not confirmed for April based on available research [^] |
|---|---|
| Initial Genesis Event Plan | November 29 [^] |
| Reported Token Release | January 6 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 08, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHYPEMAXMON-HYPE-26APR30-4500: YES (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXHYPEMAXMON-HYPE-26APR30-4250: YES (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXHYPEMAXMON-HYPE-26APR30-4000: YES (Apr 09, 2026)
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