Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Market participants expected the Federal Reserve to maintain rates in March 2026. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool's activity in Q1 2026, market participants anticipated a strong likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding its federal funds rate during the March 2026 FOMC meeting. Reports indicated a 78.3% probability of a rate hold ^[3], with another source showing an even higher 99.4% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in March ^[1]. These figures reflect a strong market expectation for no change to the federal funds rate at that specific meeting. However, the available research does not explicitly provide a numerical "implied federal funds rate" from the CME FedWatch Tool for March 2026; rather, it indicates the market's expectation for the prevailing rate at that time to remain unchanged ^[3].

A precise comparison to the Fed's 2.5% long-term rate is difficult. In comparison, the Federal Reserve's final 2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released on December 10, 2025, included the FOMC participants' median projection for the longer-run federal funds rate. This "dot plot" projection for the long-term rate was 2.5% ^[2]. To directly compare the market's implied rate for March 2026 with this long-term projection, the specific federal funds rate prevailing at the time of the March 2026 FOMC meeting, which the market expected to "hold," would be needed. Without this specific prevailing rate from the provided sources, a precise numerical comparison between the market's short-term implied rate and the Fed's longer-run projection of 2.5% cannot be definitively quantified.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows in Q1 2026. Major U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, concluded the first quarter of 2026 with overall net outflows ^[1]. This trend occurred despite a significant positive shift in March 2026, which recorded the first monthly inflows of the year ^[2] and the first monthly gains observed since October ^[5], ^[2]. These March 2026 inflows were reported to be approximately $1.3 billion ^[2] to $1.32 billion ^[1], with another report indicating total inflows reached $2.5 billion for the month ^[3].

Comprehensive quarterly flow comparisons are not possible with current data. While the first quarter of 2026 ultimately ended with net outflows ^[1], the provided sources do not detail specific cumulative net outflow figures for the entire quarter. Furthermore, the available information lacks any data regarding net inflows or outflows for the preceding quarters of Q3 2025 or Q4 2025. Consequently, a thorough comparison of the rate of change of these flows between Q1 2026 and the previous two quarters cannot be established from the research provided.

Current Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score observations reflect recent market behavior. Recent values for Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score include 2.46, identified as a flow-based signal for the 2025 cycle ^[1], 0.4 ^[2], and 2.41 ^[4]. This metric has also been observed to compress to levels last seen when Bitcoin was priced approximately at $29,000 ^[5]. While these data points describe the MVRV Z-Score's recent and current state, the available research does not provide a projected trend for the metric by February 2026. Furthermore, it lacks comparative analysis of the MVRV Z-Score's pattern since the April 2024 halving against equivalent post-halving periods in the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles.

Future forecasts predict significant Bitcoin price volatility by February 2026. Specifically, one projection details a "brutal February 2026" for Bitcoin, expecting the cryptocurrency to experience a 30% loss of value within 30 days, which would significantly impact the broader crypto market ^[3]. However, despite this substantial price movement prediction, the provided sources do not offer specific MVRV Z-Score figures for this future period. They also do not include explicit comparisons of the post-April 2024 halving MVRV Z-Score patterns to those observed during the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles.

Bitcoin options for March 2026 show significant bullish sentiment. Deribit Bitcoin options contracts expiring in March 2026 exhibit a substantial open interest of approximately $14 billion ^[1]. Within the $55,000 to $75,000 strike range, the $75,000 strike price has emerged as a notable "price magnet," predominantly influenced by call options, which suggests a generally bullish outlook for this expiry ^[1]. This trend aligns with broader market observations in Bitcoin derivatives, which indicate significant total open interest and an overall prevalence of call options ^[4].

June 2026 options reflect hedging interest and increased puts. For the June 2026 expiry, market participants are accumulating "downside insurance," which is evident through a notable increase in put options ^[2]. This concentration of put interest is particularly pronounced within the $75,000 to $85,000 strike range, indicating a strategic intent to hedge against potential price declines ^[2]. Furthermore, metrics like the 25 Delta Skew Normalized, which represent the implied volatility skew for Deribit, offer valuable insights into the relative pricing of options for expiries extending to June 2026 ^[3].

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act had not passed by January 2026. By January 2026, comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure legislation, specifically the proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633), had not been enacted into law by both the House and Senate ^[1]. This bill, intended as a successor to prior efforts like the FIT21 Act, was described as "on the move" and "gaining momentum," with the Senate advancing its rules and releasing full text ^[3]. Despite this progress, including the availability of various versions from House and Senate committees, the legislation was still moving through the legislative process and had not yet become law ^[4].

The proposed Act grants the CFTC primary Bitcoin spot market jurisdiction. Although not yet passed by January 2026, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 explicitly assigns primary jurisdiction over the Bitcoin spot market to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ^[2]. A key aim of this legislation is to establish a clear regulatory framework by designating the CFTC as the primary regulator for digital assets identified as commodities, a classification that includes Bitcoin ^[2]. This provision helps clarify the jurisdictional roles between the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) within the digital asset sector ^[5].