How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect oil (WTI) to reach $115.01 or above by December 31, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Strait of Hormuz disruption creates significant ongoing supply shock.
- Projected record-low inventories likely lead to prolonged market tightening.
- Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect higher WTI prices with extended disruption.
- IEA reports global oil demand contraction in 2026 despite supply constraints.
- EIA and IEA indicate significant oil inventory declines through 2026.
- Hormuz developments could trigger revisions in the EIA's 2026 supply forecast.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $115.01 or above | 39.3% | 41.6% | Strait of Hormuz disruption and low inventories create a supply shock, driving potential for higher WTI prices. |
| $180.01 or above | 14.2% | 16.6% | Strait of Hormuz disruption and low inventories create a supply shock, driving potential for higher WTI prices. |
| $150.01 or above | 23.7% | 26.5% | Strait of Hormuz disruption and low inventories create a supply shock, driving potential for higher WTI prices. |
| $120.01 or above | 35.2% | 37.7% | Strait of Hormuz disruption and low inventories create a supply shock, driving potential for higher WTI prices. |
| $140.01 or above | 26.0% | 27.7% | Strait of Hormuz disruption and low inventories create a supply shock, driving potential for higher WTI prices. |
Current Context
Prediction markets indicate WTI crude oil will likely exceed $75 by 2026. There is a high degree of confidence, approximately 93%, that WTI will trade above $75 per barrel on December 31, 2026. However, forecasts for significantly higher price thresholds, such as $120-$140 per barrel and above, remain speculative and carry lower probabilities [^]. Overall, the market anticipates a prolonged period of tightening throughout 2026 [^].
The Strait of Hormuz disruption critically tightens 2026 global oil supply. The oil market in 2026 is profoundly shaped by the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This has resulted in substantial supply constraints, global inventory draws, and heightened price volatility [^]. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) specifically projects a sustained market tightening throughout the year [^].
Despite tightening supply, demand contracts; expert forecasts vary widely. Global oil demand is projected to contract in 2026, primarily driven by higher fuel prices and broader economic headwinds. The EIA forecasts a 1.1 million barrels per day decline in demand for the year [^]. Sell-side and independent analyst projections for WTI at the end of 2026 show considerable dispersion, with some baseline forecasts around $77-$85 per barrel, while other expert predictions range significantly higher based on assumptions regarding the duration of geopolitical conflicts [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a general downward trend, with the probability of WTI oil surpassing $115 by the end of 2026 falling from a starting point of 51.0% to its current level of 43.6%. The price has fluctuated within a range of 40.5% to 64.6%. The most significant price movement was a sharp 16.5 percentage point drop on June 11, 2026, when the probability fell from 59.9% to 43.4%. This movement suggests the market is highly reactive to geopolitical developments affecting global oil supply.
The primary catalyst for the major drop on June 11 appears to be the de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The market reacted strongly to public announcements which are reported to have confirmed the cancellation of planned U.S. military action and progress towards a peace deal. This news likely caused traders to significantly reduce the geopolitical risk premium that was previously priced into the market, leading to a rapid decrease in the perceived odds of an extreme oil price spike. The overall downward trend suggests that, absent major supply disruptions, market sentiment has become more bearish on the prospect of oil reaching such a high price point.
With a total of 97,336 contracts traded, the market shows significant participation and conviction. The price chart indicates a potential support level around the 40.5% mark, which represents the low end of its trading range. Conversely, the peak of 64.6% has acted as a key resistance level. The current price of 43.6% sits just above the established support, suggesting a consolidation phase after the recent sharp decline. Overall, the chart indicates that while traders initially saw a reasonable chance of oil hitting the $115 target, recent events have substantially lowered that expectation, with sentiment now hinging on future geopolitical stability in key oil-producing regions.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: $115.01 or above
📉 June 11, 2026: 16.5pp drop
Price decreased from 59.9% to 43.4%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's drop was the de-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, communicated by a key figure, Trump, on June 11, 2026. Trump's public announcements confirmed the cancellation of planned U.S. military strikes on Iran and progress towards a peace deal, leading to a 3-5% drop in WTI crude oil prices [^][^][^][^][^]. These authoritative statements from a key figure directly reduced the oil's risk premium, thereby decreasing the perceived likelihood of WTI reaching $115.01 or above by year-end 2026. As Trump is known to leverage social media for such pronouncements, and given the rapid dissemination required for such an immediate market reaction, social media was a primary driver in broadcasting this critical geopolitical news.
Outcome: $120.01 or above
📈 June 07, 2026: 9.2pp spike
Price increased from 39.0% to 48.2%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically reports of military exchanges between Israel and Iran/Lebanon [^][^]. These reports, which included Israeli strikes, likely fueled expectations of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the perceived probability of WTI reaching $120.01 or above [^][^][^]. While a significant WTI price jump was officially recorded on June 9, 2026, anticipation and initial news of these events likely prompted the prediction market spike on June 07, 2026 [^][^]. Based on the provided sources, social media activity was irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reports the maximum WTI front-month settle price exceeds the market's specific threshold (e.g., $115.00) between its issuance and December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The market opened on March 4, 2026, at 10:00 am EST, and closes either when the outcome occurs or by December 31, 2026, at 2:30 pm EST, with payouts projected an hour later. Outcomes are verified exclusively by ICE's WTI front-month settle prices, and insider trading is prohibited for those with material non-public information or who are employed by Source Agencies.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $115.01 or above | $0.41 | $0.61 | 39% |
| $120.01 or above | $0.36 | $0.65 | 35% |
| $125.01 or above | $0.34 | $0.66 | 34% |
| $130.01 or above | $0.33 | $0.70 | 30% |
| $140.01 or above | $0.26 | $0.75 | 26% |
| $135.01 or above | $0.25 | $0.75 | 25% |
| $150.01 or above | $0.26 | $0.76 | 24% |
| $160.01 or above | $0.20 | $0.83 | 17% |
| $180.01 or above | $0.16 | $0.86 | 14% |
| $200.01 or above | $0.15 | $0.88 | 12% |
Market Discussion
Market discussion reveals a split among traders regarding WTI oil reaching high thresholds by the end of 2026, with current odds for $115.01+ having declined. Proponents of higher prices (YES) point to geopolitical tensions, like Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, and critically low oil stockpiles, anticipating a significant price spike due to previously suppressed prices. Skeptics (NO) contend that the market is overly influenced by sensational news rather than fundamentals, observing current WTI and Brent trends are lower, and believing that global supply and demand destruction will prevent extreme highs.
5. How do the year-end 2026 WTI price forecasts from the EIA, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan differ in their assumptions about the duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption?
| EIA Hormuz Resumption Forecast | Gradual in 3Q26, normal by early 2027 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Banks Worst-Case Brent Price | $110-$150 per barrel if Hormuz disrupted through late 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Banks Optimistic Brent Price | $70-$90 per barrel in de-escalation scenarios [^][^] |
Year-end 2026 WTI price forecasts differ significantly in disruption assumptions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a relatively quicker resolution, forecasting a gradual resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in 3Q26, with a full return to pre-conflict traffic levels expected only by early 2027 [^][^][^]. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan model scenarios where the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists throughout the second half of 2026, which could lead to significant Brent crude price spikes [^][^].
Analysts project substantial oil price increases under prolonged disruption scenarios. JPMorgan specifically forecasts Brent crude prices of $110-$150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed through late 2026 [^][^]. Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have also modeled these scenarios, indicating similar potential Brent crude prices in the $110-$150 per barrel range if the disruption continues through 2H2026 [^][^]. However, these firms also consider more optimistic de-escalation scenarios, where prices could retreat to a lower $70-$90 per barrel range [^][^]. Real-world conditions as of June 2026 indicate the Strait remains operational but highly constrained, experiencing minimal commercial traffic alongside some 'dark' vessel activity, despite Iran's assertions of total closure [^][^][^][^].
6. Beyond the Hormuz conflict, what are the primary upside risks to oil prices in 2026 according to major commodity analysts?
| Probability WTI $115.01+ by Dec 31, 2026 | 53% (as of mid-June 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Probability WTI $120.01+ by Dec 31, 2026 | 47-48% (as of mid-June 2026) [^][^] |
| Potential oil price spike from geopolitical shifts | Up to 76% [^][^] |
Major commodity analysts identify several key upside risks to 2026 oil prices. Beyond the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, these risks include the re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in other regions, such as Venezuela, persistent damage to regional oil production and export infrastructure, deeper-than-expected inventory deficits, and unforeseen operational or logistical failures in restoring energy trade flows [^][^][^][^]. Analysts also emphasize that geopolitical risk premiums related to supply security may continue to influence oil prices even after physical shipping through critical chokepoints normalizes. Historically, elevated geopolitical tension has been associated with significant price volatility and potential spikes of up to 76% during abrupt political changes in oil-producing countries [^][^].
Prediction markets indicate probabilities for WTI reaching higher price thresholds. As of mid-June 2026, these markets show an approximate 53% probability for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to reach $115.01 or higher by December 31, 2026 [^][^]. The probabilities for WTI to reach $120.01 or above are slightly lower, hovering between 47-48% [^][^]. While lower, probabilities also exist for WTI to exceed thresholds such as $150 or more [^][^].
7. What evidence from recent IEA and OPEC monthly reports supports the forecast of a global oil demand contraction in 2026 despite supply constraints?
| IEA 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast | 420,000 b/d contraction [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| U.S. EIA 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast | 1.1 million b/d decline [^][^][^] |
| OPEC 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast | 970,000 b/d growth (revised) [^][^][^][^] |
Global oil demand forecasts for 2026 show significant divergence among agencies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a contraction of 420,000 barrels per day (b/d) for 2026, primarily attributing this to the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates an even steeper decline of 1.1 million b/d, citing high fuel prices, reduced availability, and government-mandated demand-saving measures [^][^][^]. In contrast, OPEC maintains a forecast for growth in global oil demand for 2026, though it has repeatedly revised its projection downwards to 970,000 b/d [^][^][^][^].
Geopolitical crises drive projected oil demand contraction in 2026. The demand contraction predicted by the IEA and EIA is largely attributed to severe impacts across various sectors, all stemming from the geopolitical crisis [^][^][^][^][^]. The petrochemical industry is expected to suffer from feedstock shortages, while reduced aviation activity and systemic economic cooling in both OECD and non-OECD regions contribute to the overall decline [^][^][^][^][^]. The EIA specifically assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed in the near term, with only a gradual resumption of traffic beginning in the third quarter of 2026 [^][^]. This prolonged closure is expected to maintain elevated oil prices before a potential moderation towards the fourth quarter of 2026, with high prices identified as a key factor driving the anticipated demand contraction [^][^].
8. What do the latest global oil inventory reports from the EIA and IEA indicate about the pace of stockpile draws leading into 2026?
| EIA 2Q26 Inventory Decline Projection | 6.3 million b/d [^][^] |
|---|---|
| EIA 3Q26 Inventory Decline Projection | 7.6 million b/d [^][^] |
| OECD Commercial Inventories Dec 2026 | Under 2.3 billion barrels [^][^] |
Global oil inventories face significant declines through 2026, according to reports from the EIA and IEA. Both agencies project substantial stockpile draws, which are largely attributed to production outages stemming from shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^]. These anticipated declines raise concerns about global stock levels.
EIA forecasts sharp inventory reductions, reaching multi-year lows. The EIA projects global oil inventories will decline by an average of 6.3 million b/d in 2Q26 and 7.6 million b/d in 3Q26 [^][^]. This trend is expected to reduce OECD commercial inventories to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December 2026, marking the lowest level since 2003 [^][^].
IEA reports rapid draws and critical stock level concerns. The IEA reported rapid inventory draws in early 2026, with cumulative drops of 129 million barrels in March and 117 million barrels in April [^]. IEA officials have expressed concerns that stocks could reach critical or historical lows before the peak summer demand period [^][^], contributing to significant uncertainty in prediction markets for WTI front-month settlement prices [^][^].
9. What specific geopolitical or logistical developments in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp revision in the EIA's 2026 oil supply forecast?
| Regional Production Shut-ins | 11.3 million b/d in May 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price Risk | Toward $150/b if disruption extends through Sep 2026 [^][^] |
| EIA 2026 Forecast Contingency | Strait of Hormuz remaining constrained, effectively closed waterway [^] |
EIA forecasts hinge on Strait of Hormuz transit status. A significant revision in the EIA's 2026 oil supply forecast would be prompted by specific geopolitical or logistical developments leading to either a confirmed and durable resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz or, conversely, a formal, total, and permanent closure of the waterway [^][^]. The current EIA 2026 oil supply forecast relies heavily on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz remains a constrained and effectively closed waterway [^].
Complex logistical factors currently define Strait uncertainty. Real-world oil flow is presently determined by intricate logistical factors such as dark vessel activity, US naval blockade enforcement, negotiations over Iranian "transit tolls," and the absence of standard shipping insurance [^][^][^]. These elements contribute to extreme market uncertainty for participants and EIA modelers; any changes significantly altering these aspects could either facilitate transit resumption or result in a formal, complete, and permanent closure, thereby necessitating a forecast revision. Key factors influencing the magnitude of EIA forecast revisions include the duration of any closure, the extent of regional production shut-ins, and how quickly producers can resume output once transit restarts [^][^][^].
Disruptions have caused significant production shut-ins. The impact of these disruptions has been notable, with regional production shut-ins reaching approximately 11.3 million b/d in May 2026 [^][^][^]. As of mid-June 2026, Brent crude prices are highly volatile, and market reports indicate a potential upside risk toward $150/b should the current disruption persist through September 2026 [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Market projections for WTI at year-end 2026 are highly dispersed; institutional forecasts vary from below $75/bbl to $85/bbl, while some prediction markets and bullish analysts emphasize risks that could drive prices significantly higher, with concentration around the $115–$120+ threshold for peak prices [^] . The primary bullish catalyst for 2026 is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has created an unprecedented supply shock, forcing record inventory draws and tightening global markets [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: December 31, 2026
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Market projections for WTI at year-end 2026 are highly dispersed; institutional forecasts vary from below $75/bbl to $85/bbl, while some prediction markets and bullish analysts emphasize risks that could drive prices significantly higher, with concentration around the $115–$120+ threshold for peak prices [^] .
- Trigger: The primary bullish catalyst for 2026 is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has created an unprecedented supply shock, forcing record inventory draws and tightening global markets [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bearish catalysts include potential demand destruction due to high energy prices, a global economic slowdown, and the eventual restoration of supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is assumed by major agencies to begin in 3Q26 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key dates and milestones include the assumed resumption of Strait of Hormuz shipping flows in 3Q26, potential operational stress levels for inventories appearing near mid-October 2026, and the impact of the U.S.
13. Related News
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14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
