How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect US gas prices to be above $4.00 in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- OPEC+ actions consistently indicate an increase in global oil supply.
- U.S. refinery capacity is projected to decrease for summer 2026.
- Department of Energy plans significant Strategic Petroleum Reserve purchases in 2026.
- U.S. vehicle miles traveled forecast shows modest growth.
- NYMEX RBOB forward curve shows an upward trend for 2026 summer delivery.
- Forward market data implies 2026 retail gasoline prices remain well below $4.00.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.00 | 24.0% | 14.1% | Forward market data and OPEC+ supply increases temper high price expectations. |
| Above $4.20 | 96.0% | 91.5% | Forward market data and OPEC+ supply increases temper high price expectations. |
| Above $4.40 | 86.0% | 73.6% | Forward market data and OPEC+ supply increases temper high price expectations. |
| Above $6.60 | 14.0% | 6.9% | Forward market data and OPEC+ supply increases temper high price expectations. |
| Above $5.00 | 55.0% | 36.7% | Forward market data and OPEC+ supply increases temper high price expectations. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has exhibited a sideways trend, trading within a relatively high probability range between 64.0% and 96.0%. Despite the overall flat trajectory, the market experienced significant volatility in mid-to-late April. A sharp 28 percentage point drop occurred on April 17th, from 92.0% to a low of 64.0%. This was immediately followed by a rapid recovery, with a 15 point spike on April 18th and another 15 point spike on April 26th, which pushed the price to its current high of 96.0%. As no specific news or external context was provided, the direct cause for this sudden drop and subsequent V-shaped recovery is not apparent from the available data.
The price action suggests a strong support level was established at the 64.0% mark, as the market aggressively rejected this lower valuation. Resistance appears to be in the mid-90s, where the market is currently trading. Total volume is moderate at 2,874 contracts, but recent price movements have occurred on little to no volume, which may indicate lower conviction or liquidity during these volatile periods. Overall market sentiment, as reflected by the current 96.0% price, is highly confident that US gas prices will reach the level specified by the market's resolution criteria in 2026. The swift recovery from the April 17th low reinforces the prevailing belief that the event is very likely to occur.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $4.60
📈 April 29, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 74.0% to 84.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.40
📈 April 28, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 76.0% to 86.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.20
📈 April 26, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 80.0% to 95.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.80
📈 April 25, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 46.0% to 58.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $5.00
📈 April 24, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 45.0% to 57.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if AAA reports that the maximum national average regular gas price for the US is greater than $5.00 at any time from the market's issuance through December 31, 2026, inclusive. If this condition is not met, the market resolves to "No." If the "Yes" event occurs, the market closes the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET; otherwise, it closes by December 31, 2026, at 1:25am EST, with payouts projected one hour after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.20 | $0.98 | $0.03 | 96% |
| Above $4.40 | $0.92 | $0.12 | 86% |
| Above $4.60 | $0.83 | $0.23 | 84% |
| Above $4.80 | $0.76 | $0.30 | 73% |
| Above $5.00 | $0.55 | $0.46 | 55% |
| Above $5.20 | $0.52 | $0.56 | 46% |
| Above $5.40 | $0.48 | $0.62 | 44% |
| Above $5.80 | $0.35 | $0.72 | 35% |
| Above $5.60 | $0.30 | $0.71 | 34% |
| Above $6.00 | $0.20 | $0.81 | 24% |
| Above $6.20 | $0.22 | $0.82 | 14% |
| Above $6.60 | $0.14 | $0.91 | 14% |
| Above $6.80 | $0.15 | $0.92 | 11% |
| Above $7.00 | $0.12 | $0.94 | 11% |
| Above $6.40 | $0.18 | $0.88 | 9% |
Market Discussion
Traders are primarily discussing the relationship between extremely high US gas prices, particularly reaching $6.00 a gallon, and the likelihood of a 2026 recession. One argument suggests that $6.00 gas would be "unequivocally recessionary," implying it's less likely if a 2026 recession is currently priced low. Conversely, another perspective highlights that a recession might not occur until 2027, potentially allowing for high 2026 gas prices. While the market currently shows a greater than 50% chance of prices exceeding $5.00, the discussion focuses on the implications of higher, more extreme price points.
5. What Were Saudi Arabia and Russia's Q2 2026 OPEC+ Quotas?
| Explicit Q2 2026 Quotas (SA & Russia) | Not explicitly detailed in available excerpts [^] |
|---|---|
| OPEC+ May 2026 Production Increase | Over 60% driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia [^] |
| Russia OPEC+ Quota Compliance Forecast | Expected by end of 2025 or early 2026 [^] |
Explicit Q2 2026 production quotas for Saudi Arabia and Russia were not detailed. Specific numerical production quota targets for these nations for Q2 2026 are not explicitly provided in the available excerpts from the IEA's Oil Market Reports or OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Reports [^]. However, reports indicated that both Saudi Arabia and Russia played a leading role in an OPEC+ agreement to boost oil supply in May 2026. These two countries collectively accounted for more than 60% of the total OPEC+ production hike implemented that month [^], suggesting their individual production allowances for Q2 2026 were adjusted upwards as part of a collective effort to increase overall output.
Russia anticipated full quota compliance by early Q2 2026, Saudi Arabia showed adherence. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated in November 2025 that Russia was on track to reach its OPEC+ quota by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [^]. This indicated that Russia was expected to be fully compliant with its allocated production levels as of the beginning of Q2 2026. While explicit compliance forecasts for Saudi Arabia were not provided in IEA or OPEC reports, its significant contribution to the May 2026 production increase points to active participation and adherence to the agreed-upon OPEC+ output adjustments [^].
6. What is the Projected US Refinery Capacity for Summer 2026?
| Projected Operable Refinery Capacity (Summer 2026) | Approximately 17.52 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd) [^] |
|---|---|
| Projected Utilization Rate (Summer 2026) | Potentially in the range of 88-90% [^] |
| Operable Refinery Capacity (January 2025) | 17.69 million b/cd [^] |
U.S. refinery capacity for summer 2026 is projected to decrease. As of January 1, 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported operable atmospheric crude oil distillation capacity at 17.69 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd) [^]. The conversion of the Phillips 66 Rodeo refinery to renewable fuels, which previously contributed 120,000 b/d, was completed in 2024 and is already excluded from this January 2025 capacity count [^]. For the summer 2026 driving season, the projected U.S. total operable refinery capacity is expected to be approximately 17.52 million b/cd, a figure that incorporates announced permanent closures. Most notably, the Valero Benicia refinery is slated to shut down by April 2026, removing an additional 170,000 b/d from the total [^]. No significant new crude oil distillation capacities are anticipated to come online by 2026 to offset these reductions [^].
Refinery utilization rates are projected to remain high for summer 2026. The EIA forecasted U.S. refinery utilization to average 88% in 2025, and they anticipate increased refinery inputs extending into 2026, driven by favorable refining margins [^]. Given the reduction in operable capacity due to closures like Valero Benicia and an overarching trend of rising consumption, utilization rates are expected to be robust, potentially ranging from 88-90% [^]. This high utilization is crucial for meeting demand and may help mitigate a reduction in U.S. petroleum inventories [^].
7. What Are the U.S. Plans to Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
| Projected Daily Purchase H1 2026 | 20,000 to 30,000 barrels per day [^] |
|---|---|
| Price Condition for Purchase | $65-$75 per barrel [^] |
| Refill Strategy | Dynamic, opportunistic buying [^] |
The U.S. Department of Energy plans significant Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) purchases in early 2026. The DOE expects to buy an average of 20,000 to 30,000 barrels of crude oil daily for the SPR during the first half of 2026 [^]. This purchasing volume is contingent on favorable market conditions and crude oil prices remaining between $65 and $75 per barrel [^]. This strategy is dynamic and opportunistic, rather than a fixed schedule, aiming to incrementally restore the SPR to its pre-2022 inventory levels [^].
SPR refill efforts follow major releases, gradually restoring inventory levels. These efforts began after over 172 million barrels were released from the SPR in 2022 to stabilize global oil supply [^]. As of May 17, 2024, the SPR held 367.6 million barrels of crude oil [^]. The DOE has consistently awarded contracts and issued solicitations for crude oil purchases, including 3 million barrels for August 2023 delivery and 1 million barrels for January 2024 delivery, as part of its long-term replenishment strategy [^]. Since the large-scale releases of 2022, the total volume of crude oil purchased for the SPR has reached approximately 40 million barrels [^].
8. How do 2024-2025 EV Sales Impact 2026 U.S. VMT Forecast?
| Projected U.S. VMT for 2026 | 3,478.0 billion miles (FHWA) [^] |
|---|---|
| Projected U.S. VMT for 2025 | 3,450.4 billion miles (FHWA) [^] |
| Annual VMT growth rate 2025-2026 | 0.8% (FHWA) [^] |
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) projects modest growth in U.S. vehicle miles traveled. U.S. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is projected to reach 3,478.0 billion miles in 2026 [^]. This figure indicates an anticipated growth of 0.8% from the 3,450.4 billion miles projected for 2025 [^]. These projections form part of the FHWA's broader, longer-range forecasts for vehicle travel [^].
Specific electric vehicle impacts on VMT are not explicitly detailed. While the FHWA's VMT forecasts generally account for various influencing factors, including advancements in vehicle technology and fuel efficiency over time, the provided FHWA forecast documents [^] do not explicitly outline the specific forecasted impact of the market penetration rate of new electric vehicles sold in 2024 and 2025 on the 2026 VMT figure. These documents primarily present aggregated VMT projections and their growth rates without a disaggregated analysis of the sales impacts from specific vehicle types for those particular years [^].
9. What Is the Implied Summer Blend Gasoline Premium for 2026?
| December 2025 RBOB Price | $2.10 per gallon [^] |
|---|---|
| May-July 2026 RBOB Price Range | $2.25 to $2.28 per gallon [^] |
| Implied Summer Blend Premium | $0.15 to $0.18 per gallon [^] |
The NYMEX RBOB forward curve showed an upward trend. In late 2025, the NYMEX RBOB Gasoline forward curve for May-July 2026 delivery generally indicated an increase from winter to summer months. The December 2025 RBOB contract (RBZ2025), representing winter-grade gasoline, was priced around $2.10 per gallon [^]. Looking to 2026, the May (RBK2026) contract was approximately $2.25 per gallon [^], the June (RBM2026) contract stood at about $2.28 per gallon [^], and the July (RBN2026) contract was close to $2.27 per gallon [^]. This pricing structure suggests a contango market, where future prices are higher than nearby prices, particularly during seasonal transitions.
Summer blend premium reflects environmental regulations and production costs. This forward curve implied a 'summer blend' premium ranging from $0.15 to $0.18 per gallon for May-July 2026 contracts when compared to the December 2025 winter-grade price [^]. This premium is primarily driven by the mandated switch to "summer-grade" gasoline, which is required by environmental regulations to reduce smog in warmer temperatures [^]. Summer-grade gasoline is characterized by a lower Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), which makes it more costly to produce, transport, and store compared to its winter-grade counterpart [^].
Observed premium aligns with historical seasonal price patterns. Historically, summer-grade gasoline typically commands a premium over winter-grade due to stricter environmental specifications and elevated production costs [^]. The premium observed for the May-July 2026 contracts, ranging from $0.15 to $0.18 per gallon, is consistent with typical seasonal price spreads, a pattern that is well-documented in energy markets [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: December 31, 2026
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.00: YES (Mar 31, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
