Barnsley vs Stockport
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Barnsley plays in a higher league, suggesting a general strength advantage.
- Barnsley's former top scorer, Devante Cole, is unavailable for the match.
- Stockport's defense significantly overperformed expected goals against in recent matches.
- Stockport significantly underperformed attacking expected goals, indicating scoring struggles.
- The last head-to-head match between these teams ended in a 1-1 draw.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | 27.0% | 93.0% | Model higher by 66.0pp |
| Barnsley | 0.0% | 4.6% | Model higher by 4.6pp |
| Stockport | 0.0% | 4.6% | Model higher by 4.6pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 29, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 17.0% to 27.0%
Outcome: Tie
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Stockport" market, a YES resolution is triggered if Stockport wins the Barnsley vs Stockport soccer game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, while a NO resolution occurs if Barnsley wins or the game ends in a tie under the same conditions. The game is scheduled for May 2, 2026; the market closes after the outcome or by May 16, 2026, with payouts projected one minute after closing. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled by over two weeks, the market will resolve to a fair price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | $0.26 | $0.78 | 27% |
| Barnsley | $0.32 | $0.76 | 0% |
| Stockport | $0.54 | $0.54 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is the player availability for Barnsley vs. Stockport?
| Devante Cole Status | Unavailable (released by Barnsley) [^] |
|---|---|
| Nick Powell Availability | No reported injury/suspension for May 2, 2026 match [^] |
| Other Starting XI Players | No other players explicitly ruled out/doubtful [^] |
6. How Do Barnsley's and Stockport's xG Compare to Actual Goals?
| Barnsley Expected Goals (xG) | 7.3 (last 5 League One matches) [^] |
|---|---|
| Stockport Expected Goals (xG) vs. Actual Goals | 6.7 xG vs. 4 actual goals (last 5 League Two matches) [^] |
| Stockport Expected Goals Against (xGA) vs. Actual Goals Conceded | 5.4 xGA vs. 4 actual goals conceded (last 5 League Two matches) [^] |
7. Has professional money caused line movement for Barnsley vs. Stockport?
| Opening Asian Handicap Line | Not explicitly available in research (sources 2, 3, 6, 7) [^] |
|---|---|
| Current Asian Handicap Line | Not explicitly available in research (sources 2, 3, 6, 7) [^] |
| Line Movement >= 0.25 Goals | Cannot be determined due to lack of specific line data (sources 2, 3, 6, 7) [^] |
8. What Tactical Data Is Available for Barnsley vs. Stockport's Latest Match?
| Most Recent Match Date | September 28, 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| Possession Statistics | Not explicitly detailed for recent match [^] |
| Shots from Penalty Area | Not explicitly detailed for recent match [^] |
9. What Are English League One Implications for Barnsley vs. Stockport?
| Precise League Standings (May 2, 2026) | Not provided in research [1-9] [^] |
|---|---|
| Automatic Promotion Criteria | Top two teams in English League One [^] |
| Playoff Qualification Criteria | Teams finishing 3rd through 6th [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 16, 2026
- Closes: May 16, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXEFLL1GAME-26APR28PETMAT-TIE: YES (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEFLL1GAME-26APR28PETMAT-PET: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEFLL1GAME-26APR28PETMAT-MAT: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEFLL1GAME-26APR28STOPVA-TIE: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEFLL1GAME-26APR28STOPVA-STO: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
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