Who will Conor McGregor fight next?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Max Holloway to be Conor McGregor's next opponent before 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Conor McGregor's UFC return is primarily targeted for July 11, 2026.
- Dana White consistently emphasizes McGregor-Chandler's massive commercial appeal.
- Max Holloway is a "front runner" linked to McGregor's anticipated return.
- McGregor's team actively explores non-UFC fight opportunities, including BKFC.
- Nate Diaz explicitly rejected a fight offer, making dismissive comments.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 3.0% | 3.4% | Model higher by 0.4pp |
| Michael Chandler | 3.0% | 3.8% | Dana White consistently highlights the commercial appeal of a McGregor-Chandler fight, and Chandler is campaigning. |
| Jorge Masvidal | 19.0% | 17.3% | Market higher by 1.7pp |
| Max Holloway | 67.0% | 61.4% | Reputable journalists frequently link Max Holloway as a front-runner for McGregor's anticipated return. |
| Nate Diaz | 4.0% | 3.3% | Nate Diaz publicly rejected a fight offer from Conor McGregor, making dismissive comments. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided data, the prediction market for Conor McGregor's next opponent has experienced a significant and sustained downward trend. The contract opened with an 18.0% probability and has since collapsed to its current price of 3.0%. The most significant price movements were two sharp drops in late March and early April 2026. Around March 27, the price plummeted from 22.0% to 3.0%, and a subsequent drop occurred around April 5, moving from 13.0% to the same 3.0% level. This suggests that two distinct events or pieces of information led traders to rapidly reassess and downgrade the probability of this specific fight occurring.
Without any external news context provided, the precise catalysts for these drastic price drops cannot be determined. However, such sharp declines typically reflect major developments, such as the announcement of a different fight, an injury, or official statements from a promoter or the fighter himself that rule out this particular matchup. The total volume of 691 contracts indicates a moderate level of activity over the market's lifespan. However, the sample data shows zero volume during the periods of the major price drops, which could suggest that the price shifted on very little trading activity, indicating either an illiquid market or a rapid re-pricing based on information that created a new, strong consensus without needing heavy trading to establish it.
The chart has established a clear support level at the 3.0% price floor. Since falling to this point in late March, the price has not dropped further, indicating this is the lowest probability the market is currently willing to assign to the event. The overall price action reflects deeply bearish market sentiment. The initial optimism has been completely erased, and the current price suggests that traders believe there is only a very remote chance that this individual will be McGregor's next opponent before the 2028 resolution date. The market's conviction appears firm, with the price holding steady at this low probability for an extended period.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Max Holloway
📈 April 05, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 67.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 04, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 58.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 01, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 48.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 March 31, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 47.0% to 69.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Jorge Masvidal
📉 March 29, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 20.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Conor McGregor's first fight between August 7, 2025, and December 31, 2027, is against Max Holloway. A "No" resolution occurs if McGregor fights a different opponent first or does not fight within this period, with the market expiring by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM EST if the event hasn't occurred earlier. Resolution relies on information from a list of specified sports and news organizations.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | $0.70 | $0.35 | 67% |
| Jorge Masvidal | $0.24 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Nate Diaz | $0.74 | $0.88 | 4% |
| Justin Gaethje | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Michael Chandler | $0.09 | $0.96 | 3% |
| Carlos Prates | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Eddie Alvarez | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Floyd Mayweather Jr. | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Georges St-Pierre | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jeremy Stephens | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Perry | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tony Ferguson | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tyron Woodley | $0.05 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market strongly predicts Max Holloway (67%) will be Conor McGregor's next opponent, followed by Jorge Masvidal (19%) and Nate Diaz (4%). However, a significant sentiment in the discussion suggests McGregor may not fight again due to his wealth or being booked elsewhere, contradicting the high probabilities for specific opponents. Some traders also proposed other potential fighters like Michael Chandler, Ian Garry, or Charles Oliveira, with one user dismissing Oliveira due to a perceived poor past performance.
5. Why is Dana White not scheduling the 'massive' McGregor vs. Chandler fight?
| Commercial Potential | 'Massive' and 'huge' (Dana White) [^] |
|---|---|
| Event Scheduling Decision | Rejected for 'UFC White House' event [^] |
| Opponent Confirmation Status | 'nothing's even remotely close to being done' for McGregor's opponent [^] |
Dana White consistently recognizes McGregor vs. Chandler's significant commercial and narrative appeal. He has explicitly described a potential Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler fight as "massive" and "a huge fight," noting its strong appeal for pay-per-view buys and gate receipts [^]. From a storyline perspective, Chandler is also widely considered the most logical opponent for McGregor, largely due to their coaching rivalry on "The Ultimate Fighter" [^]. Despite this acknowledged commercial viability and clear narrative, White has consistently rejected scheduling the fight for specific events, notably stating for the "UFC White House" card, "'That's not the fight we're going with'" and "'That's not the fight that's going to happen'" [^].
UFC executives are strategically delaying McGregor's return for an optimal stage. While White expressed confidence in McGregor's eventual return, he also noted that "nothing's even remotely close to being done" regarding an opponent, indicating a strategic deferral of the highly anticipated matchup [^]. This contrast between the fight's immense commercial and storyline value and White's decision to delay its immediate execution suggests a strategic timing approach by UFC executives, possibly aiming for an even grander stage. While Chandler remains a strong contender, a report also identified Max Holloway as a "front runner" for McGregor's return, highlighting the commercial appeal of a "rematch a decade in the making" [^].
6. When Is Conor McGregor Returning to UFC Competition?
| Anti-doping Sanction End | March 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Drug Testing Status | Most drug-tested UFC fighter [^], [^] |
| Anticipated Return Weight Class | Welterweight [^], [^] |
Conor McGregor's anti-doping status confirms his imminent return to competition. His 18-month UFC anti-doping sanction officially concluded in March 2026, making him eligible to compete again [^]. Since the beginning of 2026, McGregor has been the most frequently drug-tested UFC fighter, undergoing tests twice as often as any other athlete in the promotion [^], [^]. This intensive testing regimen clearly indicates his re-entry into the rigorous anti-doping program and his preparation for active competition [^].
McGregor is actively engaged in a dedicated fight camp for his anticipated 2026 return [^] . What we know">[^]. In November 2025, he launched a new Straight Blast Gym (SBG) location, committing to 'live at the gym' for his UFC comeback [^]. Updates confirm that a 'comeback training camp' is currently underway [^]. Significant signs of ramped-up training include sparring with an unbeaten 6-foot-5 welterweight, which points to focused preparation for that specific weight class [^]. Additionally, he has reunited with his long-time coach John Kavanagh and released 'hard-hitting' training video montages in 2026, further confirming a concentrated effort towards competition [^].
7. What Potential Opponents Are Targeting a Fight With Conor McGregor?
| Chandler's Campaign | Most active and public opponent [^] |
|---|---|
| Chandler's Suspension End | Approximately June 12, 2025 [^] |
| Diaz's Fight Offer | Explicitly turned down [^] |
Michael Chandler actively campaigns for the McGregor fight despite suspension. He is the most active and publicly campaigning opponent, consistently making targeted media statements and callouts to keep the potential fight "alive" [^]. Chandler has expressed a strong desire for this bout to headline a "UFC White House" event [^]. However, as of early June 2025, he is under a 60-day medical suspension until approximately June 12, 2025, following his UFC 314 fight on April 13, 2025 [^]. Chandler remains under a UFC contract, with an implied open fight obligation tied to a potential McGregor bout [^].
Nate Diaz declined a fight, while Jorge Masvidal actively pursues one. Nate Diaz was offered a fight with McGregor but explicitly turned it down, making dismissive comments about McGregor's current state [^], which indicates a lack of interest rather than active campaigning. Jorge Masvidal is also publicly pursuing a fight with McGregor, making targeted callouts [^]. While Masvidal is clearly expressing interest, the available research does not specify his current contractual status or whether he is subject to any medical suspensions.
8. Are Conor McGregor Crossover Fights with BKFC Being Explored?
| BKFC President's Interest | David Feldman expressed interest in partnering with UFC for a Conor McGregor bare-knuckle bout [^] |
|---|---|
| McGregor Management's Intent | Paradigm Sports plans to approach UFC regarding non-UFC fight opportunities for McGregor [^] |
| Timeline for Discussions | BKFC President Feldman considered approaching UFC 'in the next week or two' around the time of the report [^] |
Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship expressed strong interest in a McGregor crossover event. BKFC President David Feldman has publicly stated his organization's desire to partner with the UFC for a bare-knuckle boxing match featuring Conor McGregor. Feldman indicated a willingness to collaborate with the UFC to facilitate such an event and mentioned considering approaching the UFC about this potential fight in the near future [^]. These statements articulate a promoter's public intent to explore a partnership and initiate discussions, rather than representing a definitive offer currently on the table.
McGregor's management actively explores external fight opportunities beyond UFC commitments. Conor McGregor's management, Paradigm Sports, has also signaled an intent to pursue non-UFC fight opportunities for the athlete. Reports suggest that McGregor's 'right-hand man,' likely Paradigm Sports CEO Audie Attar, plans to engage with UFC officials, including Dana White, to discuss potential crossover events that extend beyond McGregor's existing UFC contractual obligations [^]. This indicates an active exploration by McGregor's team into external fight possibilities, which aligns with the public interest from promoters like BKFC in facilitating such high-profile events.
9. When is Conor McGregor's UFC Return and Who Will He Fight?
| Targeted Return Date | July 11 [^] |
|---|---|
| Most Frequently Linked Opponent | Max Holloway [^] |
| Return Status | "Locked in" unless "something disastrous" occurs [^] |
Conor McGregor's highly anticipated UFC return is primarily targeted for July 11, a date he has reportedly confirmed [^] and which is consistently associated with the promotion's International Fight Week [^] . While some reports, including those citing journalist Ariel Helwani, initially suggested this return could be in July 2026 [^], other discussions indicate a more immediate comeback in the upcoming July [^]. Helwani has affirmed that McGregor's return is considered "locked in," barring any unforeseen "disastrous" circumstances [^].
Max Holloway is most frequently linked as McGregor's potential opponent for this return. Prominent MMA journalist Ariel Helwani has specifically identified Holloway as a possible opponent for a July 11 bout [^]. Other reports further designate Holloway as a "front runner" to face McGregor [^] and mention a potential fight against him for events such as UFC 329 or UFC 330 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2028
- Closes: January 01, 2028
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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