Which G7 leader will leave next?

Giorgia Meloni's coalition faces increased fragility after a recent referendum defeat. The Prime Minister is considering "risky choices" following a significant March 2026 referendum defeat ^{[^]}, which prompted a "restart" summit with Antonio Tajani of Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini of Lega ^{[^]}. A critical challenge for the government is the upcoming 2026 fiscal crossroads, identified as a key point of potential instability ^{[^]}. The government has also faced a budget setback, reportedly breaking EU rules and negatively impacting GDP forecasts, further complicating future financial decisions ^{[^]}.

Matteo Salvini's Lega party is experiencing significant internal divisions and leadership challenges. The party is described by some as "ripping apart," with tensions intensified by General Roberto Vannacci's strong electoral performance, which directly challenges Salvini's leadership and coalition stability ^{[^]}. Salvini has publicly addressed these rifts, asserting the party's unity by stating, "The League is a family and a community, we're not a barracks" ^{[^]}. On policy, Lega opposes increasing military spending, advocating for these funds to be redirected elsewhere, highlighting a key disagreement within the alliance ^{[^]}.

Forza Italia focuses on party renewal and strategic positioning after the referendum. Under Antonio Tajani, the party held a summit for revitalization discussions after the referendum defeat ^{[^]}. Tajani publicly affirmed the party's democratic commitment, stating Forza Italia "bow[s] to the will of the people" regarding the referendum outcome ^{[^]}. Both Lega and Forza Italia are carefully positioning themselves in response to recent electoral results and ongoing policy debates, particularly concerning the upcoming 2026 budget and EU directives ^{[^]}.

National Rally seat projections fall short of an absolute majority. The National Rally (RN) is widely projected to fall short of securing an absolute majority in the French legislative elections, which requires 289 seats. Forecasts from Ifop-Fiducial estimate the RN winning between 220 and 250 seats ^{[^]}, while Harris Interactive projects a range of 235 to 265 seats ^{[^]}. These projections place the party below the threshold required to govern independently ^{[^]}.

Cohabitation with President Macron appears highly probable. A "cohabitation" crisis, where the President and the parliamentary majority belong to opposing political parties, is therefore highly likely for Emmanuel Macron. Although a precise numerical probability for cohabitation is not available, current models strongly indicate that the National Rally will not achieve the necessary seats for an absolute majority ^{[^]}. This scenario would compel the formation of a government by a rival political bloc, thereby leading to a cohabitation period ^{[^]}.

Donald Trump's New York conviction concluded without incarceration. The sentencing occurred on January 10, 2025 ^{[^]}, after the Supreme Court allowed it to proceed ^{[^]}. The court issued an unconditional discharge, a penalty-free sentence that does not involve incarceration, probation, or fines for this specific felony case ^{[^]}. Therefore, the immediate concern of a sitting president facing incarceration for this conviction has been addressed by the imposed sentence ^{[^]}.

The 25th Amendment addresses presidential inability to serve. Should a sitting president face potential incarceration in future hypothetical scenarios, the U.S. Constitution offers specific mechanisms for congressional action. The 25th Amendment outlines procedures for presidential disability or inability to discharge the powers and duties of the office ^{[^]}. Under Section 4, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or another body designated by law) can declare the President unable to perform their duties, at which point the Vice President immediately assumes the powers and duties as Acting President ^{[^]}. If the President disputes this declaration, Congress must decide the issue, requiring a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate to remove the President ^{[^]}.

Impeachment provides another constitutional pathway for removal. Additionally, Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution allows for the impeachment of a President for "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors" ^{[^]}. This process involves a majority vote in the House to impeach and a two-thirds conviction vote in the Senate, which could ultimately lead to removal from office ^{[^]}.

Keir Starmer's leadership experienced an immediate and significant internal challenge. His tenure has been characterized by a notably brief or absent "honeymoon" period, as he faced immediate pressures such as tax warnings, riots, and general unrest from the outset ^{[^]}. A substantial internal disagreement emerged concerning welfare reform, culminating in a "benefits rebellion" within the Labour Party in July 2025 ^{[^]}. This specific policy area generated considerable opposition, with numerous Labour MPs voting against or supporting amendments that diverged from Starmer's proposed stance ^{[^]}.

Welfare reform triggered substantial disagreement, but Starmer's resilience prevented his unseating. Although the dissent on welfare reform was notable, the bill ultimately passed, demonstrating that while the rebellion was significant, it did not stop the legislation from being enacted ^{[^]}. Later, around February 2026, Starmer confronted more direct challenges to his leadership, including calls for his resignation from within the party ^{[^]}. However, he received support from his ministers and successfully navigated this turbulent period, showcasing his capacity to maintain essential backing and withstand attempts to remove him from power ^{[^]}. This pattern suggests Starmer has, thus far, proven robust in the face of internal pressures, though the risk of future challenges persists.

The most immediate catalyst for a leadership change is the September 2024 LDP presidential election [^] . While the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) support recovered to 43% by February 2026, bouncing back from previous lows experienced under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ^{[^]}, and retained a high approval rating post-election in early 2026 ^{[^]}, a significant decline in his personal approval ratings could prompt internal party factions to field strong challengers during the upcoming election campaign.

No specific deadline for challenging Kishida ahead of the election is detailed. The provided sources do not explicitly detail a specific procedural deadline for factions to formally trigger a leadership challenge ahead of the scheduled September 2024 LDP presidential election ^{[^]}. Such challenges typically involve gathering a requisite number of LDP Diet members to formally nominate a candidate during the official election period.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.