What countries will Trump visit in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market favor Switzerland at approximately 100% probability.
1. Executive Verdict
- Turkey is confirmed to host the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara.
- China is slated to host the 2026 APEC Summit.
- Expansion of Abraham Accords could lead to a Saudi Arabia visit.
- Presidents typically reduce foreign travel before US midterm elections.
- Future administration foreign policy may prioritize America First principles.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 87.0% | 76.4% | The evidence indicates that potential foreign policy leaders like Marco Rubio prioritize "countering China" and a "new Cold War," which suggests an adversarial relationship making a presidential visit less likely, contrasting with the high market probability. |
| Taiwan | 6.0% | 2.6% | The appointment of Marco Rubio, who explicitly prioritizes countering China, to key foreign policy roles makes a provocative visit to Taiwan more conceivable as a means to achieve that objective, although the inherent risks keep the overall probability low. |
| Turkey | 59.0% | 47.6% | The provided research details Marco Rubio's foreign policy priorities focusing on China and Russia, offering no information or indication regarding a potential Trump visit to Turkey, thus providing neutral evidence for or against the market's current probability. |
| Israel | 54.0% | 41.8% | The provided background research details Marco Rubio's foreign policy priorities concerning China and Russia and offers no direct evidence either supporting or refuting the probability of Trump visiting Israel in 2026, thus leaving the debiased price as fair. |
| Cuba | 14.0% | 4.6% | The background research indicates that Senator Marco Rubio, a key foreign policy figure in a potential Trump administration, prioritizes countering China and Russia, with no mention of Cuba, suggesting it is not a focus for high-level engagement and thereby supporting the market's low probability of a visit. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The market has traded between 28.0% and 81.0% YES probability, with a current reading of 54.0%. Total volume: 9,813 contracts.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Israel
📉 April 01, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 55.0% to 28.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Italy
📉 March 31, 2026: 31.0pp drop
Price decreased from 77.0% to 46.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 March 30, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 55.0% to 77.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present within Japan's internationally recognized borders between market issuance (December 2, 2025) and January 1, 2027. Physical presence is required, excluding layovers, virtual appearances, or presence solely within embassy grounds, and evidence must be reported by at least one approved news organization or official source. If no such visit occurs by the January 1, 2027 deadline (10:00am EST), the market resolves to "No."
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $0.88 | $0.13 | 87% |
| France | $0.75 | $0.29 | 71% |
| Turkey | $0.59 | $0.46 | 59% |
| Israel | $0.59 | $0.47 | 54% |
| Japan | $0.49 | $0.56 | 44% |
| Germany | $0.40 | $0.63 | 37% |
| Saudi Arabia | $0.41 | $0.64 | 35% |
| India | $0.34 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Italy | $0.31 | $0.74 | 27% |
| Canada | $0.30 | $0.75 | 24% |
| Qatar | $0.30 | $0.76 | 23% |
| Poland | $0.28 | $0.78 | 22% |
| Hungary | $0.14 | $0.87 | 18% |
| Russia | $0.17 | $0.85 | 17% |
| North Korea | $0.15 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Venezuela | $0.19 | $0.85 | 15% |
| Cuba | $0.17 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Vatican City | $0.13 | $0.92 | 14% |
| Mexico | $0.16 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Denmark | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Ukraine | $0.13 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Palestine | $0.09 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Taiwan | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Traders are debating the likelihood of Donald Trump's international travel in 2026, with some expressing strong negative political opinions that he won't visit any countries. Key arguments for "No" outcomes include the limited number of visits by late March (e.g., only Switzerland mentioned) and specific intelligence about other individuals (like Vance for Hungary) visiting instead of Trump. While the market shows high probabilities for visits to Turkey (59%), Israel (54%), and Japan (44%), the written discussion lacks explicit arguments for "Yes" positions, focusing more on negative predictions or specific observations.
5. What Are Marco Rubio's Key Roles and Foreign Policy Priorities?
| Secretary of State | Senator Marco Rubio [^] |
|---|---|
| National Security Advisor | Senator Marco Rubio [^] |
| Primary Foreign Policy Focus | Countering China and Russia [^] |
Senator Marco Rubio is slated for key foreign policy appointments in a potential future administration. Supported by the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) [^] and The Heritage Foundation [^], Senator Rubio is expected to be appointed as Secretary of State [^]. Initially, Representative Mike Waltz, a Chair at AFPI's Center for American Security [^], was named National Security Advisor [^]. However, Senator Rubio later assumed the role of National Security Advisor following Waltz's nomination as UN Ambassador [^].
Rubio's foreign policy consistently prioritizes countering specific global adversaries. His "America First Nomination," issued through AFPI, explicitly identifies "countering adversaries like China and Russia" as a central foreign policy goal [^]. Additionally, The Heritage Foundation, which supports Rubio's Secretary of State nomination, has highlighted a strategy titled "Winning the New Cold War: A Plan for Countering China," further emphasizing a significant focus on China within his proposed foreign policy approach [^].
6. Who Will Host the NATO and APEC Summits in 2026?
| 2026 NATO Summit Host | Türkiye (Turkey) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting Host City | Shenzhen, China [^] |
| Donald Trump's NATO Stance | Considers U.S. withdrawal from alliance [^] |
Türkiye and China will host the major 2026 multilateral summits. The 2026 NATO Summit is confirmed to take place in Türkiye's capital city, Ankara [^]. This decision was announced by NATO and verified by Turkish President Erdoğan. Concurrently, China has been designated as the host for the 2026 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting, with Shenzhen specifically chosen for the Economic Leaders' Meeting [^].
Donald Trump's NATO engagement was contentious, often questioning its value. During his presidency, Donald Trump attended NATO summits, where his interactions were characterized by tension over defense spending. However, there were also periods where the alliance largely accommodated his demands [^]. Trump has openly questioned NATO's strategic importance, referring to the alliance as a "paper tiger," and has stated his consideration of withdrawing the U.S. from the alliance [^].
Research does not detail Trump's stance on the APEC forum. The provided information does not include data regarding Donald Trump's historical engagement or public stance concerning the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
7. Were Major Trade Deals Signed Requiring Presidential Visits in 2026?
| Abraham Accords Expansion | Former President Trump urged Saudi Arabia to join in March 2026 [^]. |
|---|---|
| US-UK Trade Deal Status | Not done yet as of 2026, with significant unresolved issues [^]. |
| China 'Phase Two' Trade Deal | No information available on negotiation status or 2026 timeline [^]. |
Expansion of Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia saw active diplomatic efforts. Former President Trump actively urged Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords in March 2026, stating "It’s Time Now" [^]. This appeal occurred amidst "all eyes on Trump at Saudis' FII Miami," signaling high-level engagement and ongoing diplomatic efforts [^]. Developments related to the Abraham Accords were also noted in late 2025, indicating a continuous focus on expanding the agreements, building on Trump's historical engagement with Saudi leadership and his Mideast vision [^]. However, the available research does not confirm a projected signing ceremony requiring a presidential visit to Saudi Arabia in 2026, suggesting that negotiations and persuasion were still underway rather than a deal being finalized for signature.
A US-UK trade agreement faced significant hurdles in 2026. As of 2026, a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal was explicitly stated as "isn’t done yet," with several key areas still "on the table" [^]. Significant obstacles included demands from a potential Trump administration for Britain to adopt US standards, alongside ongoing discussions concerning sectors such as steel, cars, and pharmaceuticals [^]. While progress on UK free trade agreement negotiations was reported, the provided information does not project a specific 2026 timeline for the completion of the deal or for a signing ceremony that would necessitate a presidential visit [^]. The complexity and number of unresolved issues indicated that a final agreement requiring such a visit was not imminent in 2026.
No information indicates a 2026 signing for a China trade deal. Regarding a 'Phase Two' trade deal with China, the provided research results contain no information concerning its negotiation status or any projected 2026 timeline for such an agreement. Therefore, based on the available research, none of the specific major international agreements examined—the expansion of the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, a post-Brexit US-UK trade agreement, or a 'Phase Two' trade deal with China—were finalized or poised for a signing ceremony requiring a presidential visit in 2026.
8. How Does Presidential Foreign Travel Shift Before US Midterm Elections?
| Reduced Travel Period | Late summer through early November [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Focus During Midterms | Domestic campaigning and political engagement [^] |
| Lowest Travel Frequency Months | August, September, October, and early November [^] |
US presidents historically reduce foreign travel before midterms, prioritizing domestic engagement. US presidents significantly decrease their foreign travel frequency from late summer through early November in the period leading up to midterm elections [^]. This strategic shift enables the president to dedicate time to supporting their party's candidates and addressing domestic concerns, which are crucial for influencing midterm outcomes [^]. Consequently, the months of August, September, October, and early November typically exhibit the lowest frequency of discretionary presidential foreign travel.
Past midterms show presidents prioritizing domestic travel over foreign trips. For instance, President Donald Trump focused on weekly domestic travel from September onwards during the 2018 midterm year, with most significant foreign travel having occurred earlier in the year [^]. Similarly, President Barack Obama's schedules in August and October 2014 demonstrated a notable absence of foreign travel as he campaigned domestically [^]. While any foreign travel during an election season is carefully examined for its political utility, the research does not detail how specific visits to countries like Israel, Hungary, or Italy would offer particular pre-election domestic political benefits for key voter demographics in a midterm year [^]. The historical pattern consistently shows a strong preference for domestic presence over extensive foreign tours in the months directly preceding a midterm election [^].
9. What is the Lead Time for Presidential Visit Announcements?
| Shortest Lead Time Observed | 1 day (Calculated from [^] and [^]) |
|---|---|
| Initial Media Report Date (Poland Visit) | June 1, 2017 [^] |
| Official White House Announcement (Poland Visit) | June 2, 2017 [^] |
One-day lead time was observed for a 2017 presidential visit. During President Trump's first term, the shortest lead time between initial media reports of advance preparations for a presidential visit and the official White House announcement was one day. This specific instance occurred in connection with his July 2017 visit to Poland. Media outlets reported on June 1, 2017, about arrangements being made, indicating advance team activities [^]. The official White House confirmation followed on June 2, 2017, highlighting this tight turnaround [^].
Limited data points exist for precise lead time calculations. Other potential data points for calculating lead time are limited by a lack of dual dates. For instance, while Secret Service arrangements for a potential visit to Ireland in April 2019 [^] and general procedures for presidential overseas travel [^] are mentioned, these sources do not provide both the initial media report and the subsequent official White House announcement. Therefore, the July 2017 Poland visit remains the clearest and most complete data point for this specific lead time analysis.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-SWI: YES (Jan 22, 2026)
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