When will DHS be funded again?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: DHS being funded again before Jun 1, 2026 at 98.0% model vs 0.0% market.
1. Executive Verdict
- Senate repeatedly failed to advance DHS funding bill; 60 votes required.
- White House negotiations on ICE/CBP reforms have not yet yielded a deal.
- The House of Representatives passed the DHS Appropriations Act on March 5.
- No specific Senate legislative plan exists for DHS funding before recess.
- No reported lobbying by airline groups on Senate Republicans regarding shutdown.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 26, 2026 | 8.0% | 3.1% | The Logit-shift is negative, as strong evidence reinforces the market's low probability for DHS funding before March 26, 2026, with the bilateral conflict centered on the confirmed lack of any agreement or timeline for funding amidst persistent partisan stalemates that have repeatedly failed legislative action. |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 39.0% | 8.0% | The log-odds were significantly reduced (Grade A, 2.0 shift) from the market's 39% due to overwhelming evidence indicating continued Senate failures, a lack of confirmed funding by March 21, and an impending Senate recess, which collectively outweigh the potential for a last-minute deal from ongoing bipartisan talks. |
| Before Apr 15, 2026 | 81.0% | 36.6% | Despite ongoing bipartisan talks and a House-passed bill showing potential for a rapid resolution before the Senate recess, the posterior probability is significantly lower due to the Senate's repeated failures to advance legislation and its upcoming March 30-April 10 recess, making funding before April 15 highly improbable. |
| Before Apr 22, 2026 | 87.0% | 47.5% | The market's high probability for DHS funding before April 22nd is strongly contradicted by the ongoing legislative stalemate and explicit lack of evidence for a resolution, necessitating a significant downward logit shift, despite intensifying talks and public pressure providing a weak counter-argument for an eventual deal. |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 94.0% | 95.5% | The market's high probability was slightly increased by a weak (Grade D) logit shift, reflecting the ongoing negotiations and potential progress despite repeated funding failures and a looming Senate recess. |
Current Context
DHS faces a shutdown due to Democratic reform demands. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been operating without full fiscal year 2026 appropriations since February 14, 2026, leading to a partial government shutdown [^]. This situation stems from Democratic demands for reforms within Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), following fatal shootings in Minneapolis [^]. Efforts to advance funding bills in the Senate have repeatedly failed; for example, a vote on March 20 resulted in 47-37 against [^], [^]. Democrats have consistently blocked these bills, insisting on concessions regarding body cameras, warrants, and unmasking policies [^].
Negotiations continue amidst operational impacts and looming recess. Bipartisan talks are ongoing in Washington to resolve the shutdown [^]. Operational disruptions are evident, including airport delays caused by Transportation Security Administration (TSA) callouts [^], [^]. The White House has offered proposals and held meetings, such as one with Border Czar Tom Homan on March 20, suggesting potential for progress, though a deal has not yet been reached [^]. A Senate recess is scheduled from March 30 to April 10, adding urgency to the negotiations [^].
Market predicts a prolonged shutdown beyond March 31. Prediction markets indicate a strong consensus among traders for the shutdown to continue for an extended period [^]. Polymarket odds show a 78% chance that the shutdown will conclude after March 31, 2026, with only a 12% probability of it ending between March 24-27 [^]. The substantial trading volume of $1.2 million reflects trader belief in a continued stalemate [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data and context, the prediction market for DHS funding has exhibited a sideways trend within a defined range of 6.0% to 17.0%. The most significant price movement occurred on March 20th, when the probability dropped from its starting point of 10.0% to 8.0%. This decline directly corresponds to the news that the Senate failed to advance a DHS funding bill in a 47-37 vote on that same day. The market immediately priced in the legislative setback, signaling decreased confidence in a swift resolution to the funding gap.
This price drop was accompanied by a significant spike in trading volume, with 11,545 contracts traded as the price fell. This high volume suggests strong market conviction behind the downward move, indicating that traders decisively reacted to the failed Senate vote. Following this event, the volume has been minimal, and the price has consolidated around the 8.0% level. This price point now acts as a key area of consensus. The low current probability of 8.0% reflects a pessimistic market sentiment, suggesting that traders believe the political stalemate, driven by demands for ICE and CBP reforms, is likely to continue, delaying the passage of a funding bill.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026
📉 March 21, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 48.0% to 39.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop on March 21, 2026, was the continued legislative stalemate and lack of progress on Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding negotiations, which diminished the likelihood of a resolution before April 1. Specifically, the Senate had repeatedly failed to advance a funding bill, most recently on March 16 [^], indicating entrenched disagreement. This ongoing gridlock, coupled with increasing partisan rhetoric from DHS on March 17 [^] and the approaching April 1 deadline with no confirmed deal, led to decreased market confidence for a quick resolution. Based on the provided sources, social media activity was irrelevant.
📉 March 17, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 46.0% to 37.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Before Apr 1, 2026" outcome on March 17, 2026, was primarily driven by a highly partisan press release published on DHS.gov [^]. Released on the day of the market movement, the statement "SPRING BREAK UNDER SIEGE: Democrats’ Reckless DHS Shutdown..." blamed Democrats for the ongoing funding lapse and highlighted its negative impacts [^]. This strong political rhetoric likely signaled to market participants that a bipartisan compromise was not imminent, thereby reducing the perceived likelihood of a resolution before April 1, 2026 [^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no specific activity appeared to influence this movement.
Outcome: Before Apr 22, 2026
📈 March 20, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 76.0% to 94.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point price spike on March 20, 2026, appears to be an anticipation of an imminent, albeit short-term, funding resolution for DHS, despite the Senate's repeated failure to advance a full-year appropriations bill (e.g., 47-37 on March 20) [Prompt's summary, 7, 8]. This market movement likely reflected growing pressure for a temporary continuing resolution (CR) to alleviate operational concerns like "airport lines and travel anxieties" during Spring Break [^] before the congressional recess (March 30-April 10), making funding "Before Apr 22, 2026" seem more probable. No specific social media activity or posts from key figures directly linking to this price movement were found in the provided sources. Therefore, social media was irrelevant based on the available information.
Outcome: Before May 1, 2026
📈 March 19, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 75.0% to 84.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point price spike on March 19, 2026, was breaking news regarding high-level negotiations to resolve the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown. On that day, reports indicated White House officials were meeting with senators to tackle the funding dispute, generating optimism for a swift resolution [^]. This urgency was further underscored by warnings from political figures like Senator John Thune against a recess without a funding deal, suggesting an agreement could be imminent [web research]. Given the lack of specific social media posts from key figures in the provided sources, social media activity was mostly noise or a secondary reflection of these traditional news developments, not the primary driver.
📉 March 18, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 82.0% to 72.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10 percentage point price drop was the continued legislative deadlock in Congress over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding. Following the Senate's rejection of the House-passed H.R. 7744 on March 12, 2026, no significant progress toward a resolution was made by March 18, 2026, signaling increased difficulty in securing funding before May 1 [^]. This ongoing impasse, amid continued negotiations and an impending Senate recess, reduced market confidence in an agreement by the specified deadline [web research]. Social media was (d) irrelevant, as the provided sources do not indicate any specific influential posts or viral narratives driving the movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Before Apr 1, 2026" market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if legislation funding at least one Department of Homeland Security (DHS) component becomes law before April 1, 2026, resulting in DHS being funded at 12:01 AM ET on the later of February 14, 2026, or the day after enactment. A "No" resolution occurs if this funding legislation does not become law by the deadline, with expired presidential pocket vetoes also resulting in "No." Partial funding is sufficient, but previously enacted legislation does not count, and the outcome is verified by the Library of Congress.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 26, 2026 | $0.07 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | $0.40 | $0.61 | 39% |
| Before Apr 15, 2026 | $0.83 | $0.19 | 81% |
| Before Apr 22, 2026 | $0.90 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Before May 1, 2026 | $0.94 | $0.07 | 94% |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | $0.96 | $0.06 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders are highly confident DHS will be funded again by mid-April (81% by April 15, 87% by April 22), with a significant 39% chance of funding before April 1st. Arguments for earlier funding largely revolve around lawmakers wanting to secure their upcoming recess and avoiding a prolonged shutdown that leaves thousands working without pay. Conversely, those betting "No" on earlier dates provide limited specific reasoning, beyond simple disagreement.
5. What Were TSA Absence Rates and Political Responses to Airport Delays?
| ATL Unscheduled Absence Rate (Shutdown) | Approximately 21% [^] |
|---|---|
| National Average Absence Rate (Shutdown) | Approximately 6% [^] |
| Moderate Dem. Senator Link to Top 10 Airport Delays | None identified [Web Research Results] [^] |
Precise daily TSA absence data is not publicly available for top airports. While exact daily unscheduled absence rates for all top 10 US airports (including ATL, DFW, DEN, ORD, LAX, JFK, LAS, MCO, MIA, and CLT, as defined by FAA 2024 enplanements) are not publicly disclosed [^], specific figures emerged during the DHS shutdown. During this period, Atlanta (ATL) and JFK reported average absence rates of approximately 21% each [^]. Nationally, the average TSA unscheduled absence rate increased to about 6%, a rise from 2% prior to the shutdown, with countrywide peaks reaching 10% [^].
No specific senator statements linked airport delays to funding resolution. Research has not identified public statements from at least three moderate Democratic Senators (such as Tester, Warner, or Kelly) that specifically connect delays at the top 10 US airports to the necessity for a DHS funding resolution [Web Research Results]. Although lawmakers generally called for TSA funding and voiced frustration over the DHS shutdown as airport queues lengthened [^], these remarks do not meet the precise criteria of linking specific airport delays at the top 10 airports to the funding resolution by at least three moderate Democratic Senators. The DHS funding bill reportedly remained unresolved amidst an ongoing shutdown as of March 21, 2026 [Web Research Results].
6. What Were Key Details of White House ICE/CBP Reform Offer?
| Date of Counter-Offer | March 17, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Explicit Reform Provision | Codification and expansion of body cameras [^] |
| Current Funding Status | DHS unfunded as of March 21 [^] |
The White House presented a detailed counter-offer on March 17, 2026, for ICE/CBP reforms. This offer included five specific proposals to Democratic leadership: codifying body cameras and visible identification for immigration enforcement agents (with exemptions for undercover operations), limiting enforcement actions at sensitive locations such as schools and hospitals, establishing congressional oversight of detention facilities, and prohibiting the deportation or detention of U.S. citizens unless they have violated arrest laws [^]. The offer explicitly provides for an expansion of body cameras for codification, rather than merely pilot programs [^]. Notably, it did not include any changes to 'no-knock' warrant procedures or private property entry, as the White House maintained its opposition to Democratic demands for judicial warrants [^].
This detailed offer was rejected, maintaining the DHS funding impasse. The counter-offer, outlined in a letter from border czar Tom Homan and James Braid to Senators Collins and Britt, moved beyond earlier, vaguer proposals from early February by offering a specific and detailed list of reforms in legislative text [^]. Despite these concessions, Democrats deemed the offer inadequate and rejected it, with Senate votes blocking Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding as recently as March 20 [^]. As of March 21, DHS remains unfunded due to the ongoing shutdown stemming from disagreements over these reforms [^].
7. What is the Senate's plan for DHS funding before March 30 recess?
| Detailed March 28-30 Schedule | None available [^] |
|---|---|
| DHS Funding Bill (H.R. 7147) Cloture Vote | Failed 51-46 on March 12 [^] |
| Odds of DHS Funding After March 31 | 78% (Polymarket) [Web Research Results] [^] |
No specific Senate legislative plan exists for the recess's final 72 hours. As of mid-March 2026, official Senate floor schedules and statements from Majority Leader Thune's office do not detail a specific legislative agenda for the final 72 hours before the scheduled March 30 recess, spanning March 28-30, 2026 [^]. While Senate calendars indicate session days through March 30, they do not specify the business intended for those particular dates [^]. Recent Senate schedules, updated through March 19, primarily focused on nominations and a housing bill, which has already been passed [^].
The Senate calendar is not cleared for continuous DHS funding votes. Instead, it includes other business, signaling an expectation that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown will persist into the recess period [^]. The ongoing DHS shutdown is attributed to disputes over ICE reform, which has led to repeated failed Senate votes on funding [^]. A significant attempt to advance DHS funding, H.R. 7147, failed on March 12 when a cloture motion was defeated by a vote of 51-46 [^].
Majority Leader Thune attributes the funding block to Democrats, urging negotiations. Statements from his office have blamed Democrats for blocking DHS funding and have called for negotiations, but without outlining a specific legislative plan for the recess period [^]. This expectation of a continued shutdown is supported by prediction markets; for instance, Polymarket, based on mid-March data, indicates a 78% probability that DHS funding will be resolved after March 31, 2026 [Web Research Results].
8. Did Airline Groups Lobby Senate Republicans on DHS Shutdown (March 14-21, 2026)?
| Reported Direct Lobbying Meetings | None publicly reported between March 14-21, 2026 [Web Research Results] [^] |
|---|---|
| Airlines for America (A4A) Public Statements | Issued between March 15-17, 2026, urging Congress to end shutdown and fund DHS [^] |
| U.S. Chamber Public Stance | Called for an end to DHS shutdown on March 11 [^] |
No specific lobbying meetings were publicly reported between airline industry groups or the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Senate Republican leadership during the week of March 14-21, 2026. This includes groups such as Airlines for America (A4A), and leaders like John Thune or Susan Collins. While bipartisan Senate meetings with White House officials did occur on March 19-20 to discuss the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown, public information did not specifically mention the involvement of these industry organizations in those discussions [^].
Industry groups publicly advocated for ending the government shutdown and funding DHS. Despite the absence of reported direct lobbying meetings with Senate Republican leadership during this period, both Airlines for America and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce exerted public pressure to resolve the shutdown. Airlines for America, representing major U.S. carriers, issued public statements and an open letter between March 15-17, 2026, urging Congress to end the government shutdown, fund the DHS, and highlighted the impact on airport security [^]. Similarly, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce publicly called for an end to the partial DHS shutdown on March 11 [^]. These public statements generally advocated for bipartisan solutions and funding for DHS, without explicitly pressuring Republicans to accept Democratic immigration reform demands [Web Research Results].
9. What is the Current Outlook for the DHS Partial Shutdown Resolution?
| Legislative off-ramp discussions | Not active (Web Research Results) [^] |
|---|---|
| DHS partial shutdown started | February 14, 2026 (Web Research Results, 5) [^] |
| Shutdown continuation probability | >70% past late March 2026 [^] |
There is no evidence that key appropriators or leadership staff from both parties are actively discussing a legislative 'off-ramp' to attach the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill to a separate, must-pass vehicle, such as an emergency supplemental aid package or an upcoming FAA reauthorization [Web Research Results]. The DHS has been in a partial shutdown since February 14, 2026, primarily due to partisan disputes over Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reforms [Web Research Results, 5]. It is also important to note that the FAA reauthorization bill passed in 2024 and is not an upcoming must-pass vehicle in 2026 [Web Research Results].
Current bipartisan efforts are direct, standalone DHS funding negotiations. Instead of exploring alternative legislative vehicles, current discussions focus on direct negotiations regarding standalone DHS funding. The Senate has repeatedly failed to advance standalone DHS funding bills [^], and Republican lawmakers have rejected Democratic proposals for partial funding of specific DHS agencies [^]. Prediction markets currently indicate a high probability—over 70%—that DHS will remain unfunded beyond late March 2026 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains unfunded for FY2026, stemming from a partial government shutdown that began on February 14, 2026, after a continuing resolution expired. While the House of Representatives passed H.R. 7744 (DHS Appropriations Act, 2026) on March 5, 2026, the Senate has repeatedly failed to advance the bill, requiring 60 votes amid Democratic demands for reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [^]. Ongoing negotiations with the White House have yet to yield a deal as of March 21, 2026, with increasing pressure mounting due to airport delays caused by unpaid Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, are currently pricing a 77-78% chance that the shutdown will extend beyond March 31, 2026, indicating a strong likelihood of the unfunded status continuing into April or even later [^] . Key factors contributing to this pessimistic outlook include the ongoing legislative gridlock, the upcoming spring recess scheduled from March 30 to April 10, concerns related to the debt ceiling, and other significant events like the 2026 World Cup. The immediate catalyst to watch will be urgent bipartisan talks in Congress before the recess commences, as a full-year funding date remains unset.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 10, 2026
- Closes: June 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains unfunded for FY2026, stemming from a partial government shutdown that began on February 14, 2026, after a continuing resolution expired.
- Trigger: While the House of Representatives passed H.R.
- Trigger: 7744 (DHS Appropriations Act, 2026) on March 5, 2026, the Senate has repeatedly failed to advance the bill, requiring 60 votes amid Democratic demands for reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [^] .
- Trigger: Ongoing negotiations with the White House have yet to yield a deal as of March 21, 2026, with increasing pressure mounting due to airport delays caused by unpaid Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 10 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXDHSFUND-26MAR20: NO (Mar 20, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-26MAR10: NO (Mar 10, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-26MAR01: NO (Mar 01, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-26FEB23: NO (Feb 23, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-26FEB17: NO (Feb 17, 2026)
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