Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect DHS to be funded again before Jan 1, 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • House Freedom Caucus ties DHS funding to H.R. 2 riders.
  • Speaker Johnson prioritizes border security; rejects Senate-passed DHS funding.
  • House Republican leadership consistently favors a standalone DHS funding bill.
  • Major defense contractors actively lobby Congress on DHS appropriations and shutdowns.
  • Specific White House/Senate demands for CBP processing funds are unclear.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Apr 15, 2026 5.7% 1.6% The House Freedom Caucus's non-negotiable demands for specific, contentious border security riders from H.R. 2 present significant legislative hurdles, strongly reinforcing the market's low probability for DHS funding before April 15, 2026.
Before Apr 22, 2026 27.0% 13.4% The evidence details the House Freedom Caucus's non-negotiable demands for comprehensive border security riders from H.R. 2 as a prerequisite for DHS funding, which strongly supports the market's low 15.3% probability of funding occurring by April 2026 given the significant political hurdles these demands create and even suggests slightly lower odds due to their rigid stance.
Before May 1, 2026 43.0% 23.7% The House Freedom Caucus's "non-negotiable" demands for controversial border security riders from H.R. 2 present a significant legislative hurdle, making it less likely that DHS funding will pass before May 1, 2026, contrary to the market's 30% probability, while the market may anticipate eventual compromise.
Before Jun 1, 2026 81.0% 68.6% The House Freedom Caucus's insistence on non-negotiable border security policy riders from H.R. 2 presents significant legislative hurdles to DHS funding, suggesting the market's 75% probability for funding before June 1, 2026, may be overly optimistic given the difficulty of passing such contentious policy changes.
Before Jul 1, 2026 88.0% 84.2% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market shows a decisive and sustained downward trend, indicating a dramatic shift in trader sentiment. The market opened with a high probability of 79.0% but has since collapsed to its current price of 0.1%. The most significant price action occurred in late March and early April. A series of steep drops began on March 26, erasing over 60 percentage points in three days. This was followed by extreme volatility, with a massive 70.0 percentage point spike on April 1, which was immediately and completely reversed by a 71.0 percentage point drop on April 2. Without additional context on specific legislative news or developments, the precise catalysts for these drastic movements cannot be identified.
The trading volume provides insight into market conviction. The total traded volume of over 1.9 million contracts signifies substantial interest and liquidity in this market. Notably, a high volume of over 18,000 contracts was traded on April 8, as the price settled near its floor of 0.1%. This suggests strong conviction from traders selling "YES" shares and betting against the funding bill's timely passage. The initial price near 80% acted as an early resistance level that failed to hold, while the current price near zero has become the market's support floor. The brief spike to the 73-74% range on April 1 appears to have been a short-lived anomaly rather than a sustainable level of support.
Overall, the price chart reflects a complete reversal of market sentiment. What began as strong optimism has transitioned into an overwhelmingly pessimistic consensus. The initial belief that the Department of Homeland Security would be funded by the resolution date has all but disappeared. The current near-zero probability, backed by significant trading volume, indicates that the market is now pricing in the event as a near impossibility.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before Apr 22, 2026

📉 April 07, 2026: 23.0pp drop

Price decreased from 51.0% to 28.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 April 04, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 48.0% to 60.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Before Apr 8, 2026

📉 April 02, 2026: 71.0pp drop

Price decreased from 74.0% to 3.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 April 01, 2026: 70.0pp spike

Price increased from 3.0% to 73.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Before May 1, 2026

📉 March 31, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 68.0% to 57.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if legislation providing funding for the Department of Homeland Security (including partial funding for one or more components) becomes law before May 1, 2026, and is effective at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment. It resolves to No if such legislation does not become law by this deadline, or if a presidential pocket veto causes a bill to expire. "Becoming law" requires the bill to be signed by the President or pass through a veto override, and the outcome is verified using the Library of Congress.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Apr 15, 2026 $0.06 $0.97 6%
Before Apr 22, 2026 $0.26 $0.76 27%
Before May 1, 2026 $0.43 $0.58 43%
Before Jun 1, 2026 $0.81 $0.22 81%
Before Jul 1, 2026 $0.90 $0.12 88%
Before Jan 1, 2027 $0.99 $0.04 95%

Market Discussion

The market shows a strong likelihood (81%) of DHS being funded before June 1, 2026, though probabilities for earlier dates (April 22 and May 1) have decreased significantly. A primary argument for a "No" outcome, particularly for earlier dates or even into August, suggests funding will be delayed due to unpopular policies and potential Republican internal sabotage. Despite these vocal arguments for delay, the overall market consensus still leans heavily towards funding occurring by early June.

5. What Border Security Riders Are HFC Demanding for DHS Funding?

Key LegislationH.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act of 2023 [^]
Key MembersChip Roy, Scott Perry [^]
Non-negotiable RidersEnding "catch-and-release," restarting border wall, defunding NGOs [^]
House Freedom Caucus members tie DHS funding to H.R. 2 riders. Key House Freedom Caucus (HFC) members, including Chip Roy and Scott Perry, are conditioning their votes on any Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill on the inclusion of specific border security policy riders derived from H.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act of 2023 [^]. The HFC has publicly stated that H.R. 2 represents the "minimum legislative standard" for any such appropriations bill [^].
The HFC's demands center on comprehensive border security measures. The House Freedom Caucus insists that any DHS funding bill must incorporate the comprehensive border security framework outlined in H.R. 2. Core policy riders central to their demands include ending "catch and release" by mandating detention, restarting border wall construction, and prohibiting federal funding for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) deemed to facilitate illegal immigration [^]. Other significant demands encompass increasing Border Patrol agents, reinstating the "Remain in Mexico" policy, and raising asylum standards [^].
Certain H.R. 2 riders are non-negotiable conditions for HFC support. The Caucus has explicitly signaled these specific riders as firm conditions for their support, stating they "will vote against any measure" that does not meet their standards [^]. Their resolute stance is underlined by their rejection of Senate DHS bills that lack robust immigration funding and border security provisions, emphasizing that H.R. 2's provisions are essential for passing any DHS funding bill [^]. Representative Roy consistently advocates for H.R. 2 as providing the necessary "comprehensive framework" for border security [^].

6. What are Senate, White House border funding, policy demands?

Max CBP Funding LevelThe research does not specify the maximum level of funding for CBP processing and shelter services that Senate leadership and the White House would accept [^].
Border Wall Policy ConcessionsSpecific policy concessions demanded by Senate leadership and the White House for new border wall construction funding are not outlined in the research [^].
DHS Funding Status (March 2026)Senate moved to fund most of DHS, specifically excluding ICE and border patrol funding [^].
Information regarding maximum funding for CBP processing and shelter services is not specified. The research does not detail the highest level of funding that Senate leadership or the White House would accept for these services. While the Senate moved to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security in March 2026, it specifically excluded funding for ICE and border patrol [^]. Conversely, Republican leaders expressed an intent to fully fund Homeland Security in April 2026, with former President Trump involved in these efforts [^]. The existence of the Shelter and Services Program (SSP) for FY2024 indicates current funding for shelter services, yet precise thresholds acceptable to the White House and Senate leadership remain undisclosed [^].
Specific policy concessions for border wall funding are not detailed in the research. The provided information does not outline any particular policy demands from Senate leadership or the White House in exchange for new border wall construction appropriations. While sources describe broader Republican initiatives to ensure full funding for DHS and its various components, including immigration agents [^], they do not specify any policy changes or agreements sought as a direct quid pro quo for border wall funding within this context.

7. What Conditions Would Make Speaker Johnson Bypass Hastert Rule on DHS?

Speaker's Stance on DHSHardline on border security measures [^]
Key Party InfluencePressure from his party's conservative wing [^]
DHS Shutdown ImpactAffects critical functions like cybersecurity, terrorism prevention [^]
Speaker Johnson maintains a firm stance on DHS funding priorities. He consistently prioritizes border security and has rejected Senate-passed bills that lack these provisions [^]. This position is significantly influenced by the conservative wing of his party, which has strongly criticized any perceived concessions on funding bills and exerted pressure against measures without substantial Republican input [^]. Johnson's decision to even put a short-term DHS funding bill on the floor previously sparked anger among some conservatives [^].
No specific conditions compel Johnson to bypass the Hastert Rule. Despite the ongoing DHS shutdown impacting critical national security functions such as cybersecurity and terrorism prevention [^], the provided research does not explicitly identify specific conditions that would compel Speaker Johnson to bypass the Hastert Rule. Conditions such as a direct national security warning from the FBI/DHS or a threatened credit rating downgrade from Moody's are not detailed as triggers for him to use a discharge petition and pass a 'clean' DHS continuing resolution with Democratic support. His current strategy remains driven by Republican demands for border security and internal party dynamics [^].

8. How Do Defense Contractors Lobby on DHS Appropriations and Shutdowns?

Leidos Lobbying Focus Q3 2023DHS Appropriations Act, 2024 & Continuing Appropriations Act, 2024 [^]
Palantir Lobbying Focus Q4 2022FY22 & FY23 DHS and Defense Appropriations [^]
Palantir Total Lobbying Amount$1,610,000 [^]
Major defense and aerospace contractors actively lobby Congress regarding federal funding and potential shutdowns. Leidos, Inc. lobbied both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in the third quarter of 2023, specifically addressing the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2024, and the Continuing Appropriations Act, 2024, and Other Extensions Act [^]. Similarly, Palantir Technologies Inc. engaged in lobbying activities targeting the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in Q4 2022, with a focus on FY22 and FY23 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Defense Appropriations, alongside general appropriations issues [^]. More recently, Palantir Technologies Inc. disclosed $1,610,000 in lobbying [^]. These engagements demonstrate the contractors' efforts to influence the legislative process for appropriations that directly impact their DHS contracts.
Lobbying on continuing resolutions demonstrates interest in stable government funding. Although lobbying disclosure forms do not explicitly state 'support for a clean CR,' activities like Leidos's lobbying on continuing appropriations bills, such as H.R. 5860, clearly indicate an interest in the passage of legislation that ensures ongoing government funding and, by extension, contract continuity during potential appropriations impasses [^]. Palantir's lobbying on general appropriations issues also encompasses mechanisms for continued funding [^]. A clean CR provides stability for contractors by preventing funding lapses and ensuring existing contracts proceed without interruption, thereby mitigating financial and operational risks associated with government shutdowns [^]. No specific lobbying information regarding DHS appropriations or shutdowns by Elbit Systems was found in the provided sources.

9. When Will House Vote on Standalone DHS Funding Bill?

Funding ApproachStandalone appropriations bill, separate from larger 'minibus' package [^]
Leadership's Funding GoalTo pass legislation fully funding DHS by end of week of April 1, 2026 [^]
Scheduled House ActionHouse Consideration of Senate-passed DHS funding bill on April 6, 2026 [^]
House Republican leadership consistently favors a standalone DHS funding bill. House Republican leadership has steadfastly planned to appropriate funds for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) via a standalone bill, intentionally avoiding its inclusion in a larger "minibus" package [^]. This strategic approach, emphasized by Speaker Johnson and Majority Leader Scalise, aims to concentrate specifically on the department's requirements and navigate existing internal party differences [^].
DHS funding timeline evolved, culminating in an April 6 House schedule. Initial discussions had targeted an introduction in early March 2026, with a potential House vote by April 3, 2026, and a broader objective to pass funding legislation by the close of the week of April 1, 2026 [^]. Subsequently, a DHS funding agreement reached in the Senate was expected in the House, with leadership then aiming for passage by April 5, 2026 [^]. The most recent schedule confirmed that the House Calendars for April 6, 2026, explicitly listed "House Consideration of the Senate-passed H.R. 7820" for full-year appropriations for DHS, thereby confirming a standalone bill was formally slated for action [^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: February 10, 2026
  • Closes: January 01, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

13. Related News

-23.0pp
Last updated: April 8, 2026, 12:18 UTC

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-22.0pp
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DHS Funding Market Prices in Longer Shutdown After House Rejects Deal

The prediction market for the timing of new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding shifted sharply on Friday, March 27, 2026, as traders priced in a prolonged government shutdown. Probabilities...
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Prediction market contracts on the timing of a deal to end the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) surged dramatically on Friday, March 27, 2026, pricing in a near-certain re...

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 14 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXDHSFUND-26MAR30: NO (Mar 30, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-26MAR28: NO (Mar 28, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-26MAR26: NO (Mar 26, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-26APR01: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-26MAR20: NO (Mar 20, 2026)