What will Trump say during his roundtable on No Tax on Tips?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Donald Trump to mention "Big Beautiful Bill" during his roundtable on No Tax on Tips, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump will lead a moderated, interactive roundtable discussion.
- The "no tax on tips" policy benefits hospitality workers.
- Trump's recent communication themes include border security and inflation.
- The "no tax on tips" policy is branded "Big Beautiful Bill."
- Market activity showed significant upward price movements recently.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz | 31.0% | 21.0% | Trump frequently pivots to broader geopolitical and economic topics, including global shipping lanes. |
| DoorDash | 37.0% | 33.4% | DoorDash is a prominent platform in the gig economy where tips are common. |
| McDonald / McDonalds | 34.0% | 29.5% | McDonald's is a significant employer in the service industry, which often includes tip-earning employees. |
| Tariff | 37.0% | 29.6% | Trump frequently discusses economic policy, often including trade and tariffs as a key talking point. |
| Event does not qualify | 4.0% | 2.1% | The event might not qualify if Trump's remarks are too brief or off-topic from tips. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The market has traded between 3.0% and 38.0% YES probability, with a current reading of 4.0%. Total volume: 534 contracts.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: McDonald / McDonalds
📈 April 14, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 14.0% to 32.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Biden
📈 April 13, 2026: 38.0pp spike
Price increased from 41.0% to 79.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Donald Trump explicitly uses "Afford," "Affordable," or "Affordability" (including plural or possessive forms) while speaking in an official capacity during the live, press-open "Roundtable on No Tax on Tips." Resolution relies primarily on video, with official transcripts as a backup, and uses sources such as ABC, Fox News, and The White House.
The market resolves to "No" if the phrase is not used, or if the event is cancelled, fails to meet the live/official capacity criteria, or if normal resolution is otherwise prevented. The market opens on April 13, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, closes upon outcome or by April 17, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, and may remain open if the event is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Beautiful Bill | $0.88 | $0.14 | 87% |
| Democrat | $0.85 | $0.18 | 86% |
| Biden | $0.80 | $0.21 | 79% |
| Nuclear | $0.73 | $0.54 | 67% |
| Fake News | $0.65 | $0.37 | 64% |
| Oil | $0.63 | $0.40 | 63% |
| Hottest | $0.65 | $0.38 | 62% |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | $0.60 | $0.41 | 60% |
| Gas / Gasoline | $0.60 | $0.56 | 58% |
| Stock Market | $0.60 | $0.42 | 56% |
| Save America Act | $0.40 | $0.63 | 40% |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | $0.40 | $0.63 | 38% |
| DoorDash | $0.35 | $0.66 | 37% |
| Tariff | $0.39 | $0.63 | 37% |
| Israel / Israeli | $0.32 | $0.69 | 34% |
| McDonald / McDonalds | $0.32 | $0.69 | 34% |
| Hormuz | $0.30 | $0.72 | 31% |
| Fraud | $0.25 | $0.84 | 25% |
| Eight War | $0.24 | $0.77 | 24% |
| Barack Hussein Obama | $0.18 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Event does not qualify | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Was the Format of Donald Trump's 'No Tax on Tips' Event?
| Event Type | Roundtable discussion [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Policy Advocated | No tax on tips policy [^] |
| Participant Interaction | Took questions from several hospitality workers [^] |
The event was officially a moderated and interactive 'roundtable discussion' [^] . During the session, Donald Trump advocated his "no tax on tips" policy [^] and engaged directly with attendees, taking questions from several hospitality workers [^]. This interaction indicated a moderated and interactive session, clearly distinct from an open-floor town hall.
The agenda combined a presentation with a controlled, interactive Q&A [^] . The detailed agenda involved Trump presenting his policy to service workers, who were also given opportunities to speak about the impact of taxes on their tips [^]. This structure, integrating a focused presentation with a Q&A session involving specific workers [^], suggested a format more akin to a moderated panel rather than a simple prepared speech or an unstructured public forum.
Controlled interaction minimized tangents, distinguishing it from open-microphone events [^] . The decision to take questions from "several" selected workers highlighted a clear degree of control and moderation in the event's proceedings [^]. This level of controlled interaction made it less likely for the discussion to deviate into broad, unstructured tangents.
6. Where Was 'No Tax On Tips' Discussed, And Who Benefits?
| Discussion Location | Las Vegas [^], [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Policy Beneficiaries | Hospitality workers, restaurant workers, and small business owners [^], [^], [^] |
| Geographic Focus | Nevada, specifically Las Vegas [^] |
Las Vegas hosted a roundtable on a proposed 'no tax on tips' policy. Donald Trump led this discussion in Las Vegas, a key center for the hospitality and service industries, making it an appropriate location for a policy affecting service workers [^], [^], [^], [^]. The event's geographic focus was specifically local to Nevada and Las Vegas, chosen due to the significant number of service employees in the region [^].
The invited audience's specific professional and geographic composition was not explicitly detailed. However, the 'no tax on tips' policy is consistently described as directly benefiting hospitality workers, restaurant workers, and small business owners [^], [^], [^]. Therefore, the discussions likely concentrated on topics relevant to these professional groups, indicating their probable role as primary stakeholders for the event.
7. What Were Trump's Top Non-Tax Topics Before Roundtable?
| Top Topic 1 | Criticism of President Biden and his administration (April 13-14, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Top Topic 2 | Legal challenges and the justice system (April 13-14, 2026) [^] |
| Top Topic 3 | Immigration and border security (April 13-14, 2026) [^] |
Donald Trump's primary non-tax-related themes were consistent across his communications. In the 48 hours immediately preceding the "No Tax on Tips" roundtable (April 13-14, 2026), Donald Trump's Truth Social posts and rally speeches heavily focused on three main non-tax-related topics: his strong criticism of President Biden and his administration, ongoing legal challenges and the justice system, and issues concerning immigration and border security [^]. These subjects were consistently emphasized during this period.
Biden's competence, legal battles were major areas of attack. Trump frequently attacked President Biden, questioning his competence and linking current economic and border conditions directly to Biden's leadership [^]. He also dedicated significant attention to his various legal challenges, calling for a judge's recusal and labeling judicial processes as a "weaponized witch hunt," while referring to his charges as "fake" [^].
Immigration, border security remained a prominent, urgent concern. Additionally, immigration and border security remained a key topic, with Trump characterizing the border situation as an "invasion" and the "worst ever" [^]. Although other subjects such as foreign policy and election integrity were mentioned, these three areas emerged as the most frequent and emphasized non-tax-related points in his public statements and social media activity.
8. What Branding Is Used For Trump's 'No Tax on Tips' Policy?
| Primary Policy Branding | 'Big Beautiful Bill' or 'The One Big Beautiful Bill' [^] |
|---|---|
| Official Documentation | The White House website, House Ways and Means Committee documents [^] |
| Affiliated Advocacy | American Liberty Pac advocates 'No Tax on Tips' [^] |
The 'no tax on tips' policy is branded 'Big Beautiful Bill'. Donald Trump and associated political communications frequently link the 'no tax on tips' policy with the brand 'The One Big Beautiful Bill' or 'Big Beautiful Bill' [^]. This branding has appeared in official documents from the House Ways and Means Committee and on The White House website, explicitly associating it with policies benefiting American workers [^]. News outlets have also consistently reported on the 'no tax on tips' policy as being passed within or as part of Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' [^].
No evidence exists for 'Save America Act' or specific testing channels. While the 'Big Beautiful Bill' branding is clearly associated with the 'no tax on tips' policy, the provided research does not indicate that the 'Save America Act' has been used as a branded name for this specific policy. Additionally, though affiliated groups such as American Liberty Pac advocate for 'No Tax on Tips' as 'Real Relief for the Working Class' [^], the provided sources do not contain specific information about the Trump campaign or affiliated groups having workshopped or tested these branded names in recent fundraising emails or digital ads, nor do they detail the channels through which these names were specifically promoted beyond general public statements and official documents.
9. What Logistics Are Planned for Trump's "No Tax on Tips" Event?
| Teleprompter Use for Main Remarks | Not explicitly detailed for this event [^] |
|---|---|
| Q&A Moderator | No specific individual designated for this event [^] |
| Past Q&A Format (Trump Events) | Direct exchange with reporters, no formal moderator [^] |
Information on teleprompter use for Trump's Las Vegas remarks is unavailable. Research does not explicitly detail whether a teleprompter will be used for Donald Trump's main remarks at the Las Vegas "No Tax on Tips" event [^]. News reports primarily focus on the event's topic and location, not the specific mechanics of his speech. While formal addresses often involve prepared text, Trump's typical speaking style frequently combines scripted elements with extemporaneous commentary.
No specific Q&A moderator is designated for the Las Vegas event. The provided research for the Las Vegas event does not name a particular individual to moderate any potential Q&A session [^]. However, previous public engagements offer insights into typical formats. For instance, a 2017 roundtable discussion with business leaders included an "Exchange With Reporters" [^]. Transcripts from other business roundtables also indicate that Trump directly engages with questions without a formally designated moderator [^]. Should a similar format be adopted, he would likely field questions directly from attendees or the press.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 17, 2026
- Closes: April 17, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12-EPST: NO (Apr 12, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12-CHIN: YES (Apr 12, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12-NASA: NO (Apr 12, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12-HOTT: NO (Apr 12, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR12-STOC: YES (Apr 12, 2026)
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