What will Starbucks say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect China to be mentioned during Starbucks' next earnings call, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- U.S. court vacated an unfair labor practice ruling against Starbucks in Q2 2026.
- New U.S. policies in Q2 2026 eased coffee import costs for businesses.
- Starbucks China's new high-protein latte line boosted market value on April 18.
- Market probability surged on April 18, coinciding with the China latte launch.
- Market probability experienced two significant drops in late April 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loyalty | 74.0% | 66.0% | Starbucks Rewards program is a consistent driver of customer engagement and sales. |
| Tariff | 87.0% | 82.9% | Global trade policies and potential tariffs could impact Starbucks' supply chain and costs. |
| Union | 23.0% | 12.2% | Ongoing labor unionization efforts and legal challenges persist for Starbucks' operations. |
| Comparable Sales | 25.0% | 18.0% | Comparable store sales growth is a primary indicator of Starbucks' retail performance. |
| Boyu | 90.0% | 86.8% | Discussions about Starbucks China joint venture may reference its private equity partner, Boyu Capital. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a strong upward trend since its inception. The contract price began at 62.0% and has since climbed to a current probability of 91.0%, trading within a range of 60.0% to 96.0%. The most significant price movement occurred on April 18, 2026, when the probability jumped 14.0 percentage points from 60.0% to 74.0%. The available context does not provide a specific news event or catalyst to explain this sharp increase in perceived probability.
The market has established a clear support level around the 60.0% to 62.0% mark, which was the floor before the significant spike. Resistance appears to be near the market's peak of 96.0%. Trading volume, which totals 4,457 contracts, appears to have increased significantly as the resolution date of April 28 approaches, as evidenced by the sample data. This pattern suggests that conviction and participation grew stronger closer to the event.
Overall, the price action indicates a consistently high and strengthening market sentiment that the event will resolve to "YES." The sustained price above 90.0%, combined with increasing volume near the end of the trading period, points to a strong consensus among market participants. The market is pricing this outcome as highly probable.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 28, 2026: 24.0pp drop
Price decreased from 44.0% to 20.0%
Outcome: Comparable Sales
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 24, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 28.0%
Outcome: Comparable Sales
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 18, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.0% to 36.0%
Outcome: Comparable Sales
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if "Canada," or its plural or possessive form, is spoken by any Starbucks Corporation representative during their next earnings call (including the Q&A); otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is primarily verified using video of the earnings call, or transcripts if video consensus cannot be reached, with the official Starbucks investor site as the source. The market opened April 17, 2026, for the earnings call on April 28, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs or by September 30, 2026, with projected payouts 30 minutes later.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| Protein | $0.97 | $0.04 | 96% |
| Boyu | $0.92 | $0.09 | 90% |
| Tariff | $0.87 | $0.19 | 87% |
| Loyalty | $0.77 | $0.24 | 74% |
| Smart Queue / SmartQ | $0.80 | $0.25 | 72% |
| Holiday | $0.70 | $0.38 | 62% |
| Canada | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| Promotion | $0.35 | $0.69 | 36% |
| Condiment Bar | $0.24 | $0.78 | 27% |
| Comparable Sales | $0.24 | $0.78 | 25% |
| Recycle / Recyclable | $0.27 | $0.77 | 23% |
| Union | $0.22 | $0.82 | 23% |
| Non Dairy | $0.22 | $0.81 | 22% |
| Oatmilk / Oat Milk | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Peppermint | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Have Starbucks' Q2 2026 Sales Growth Estimates Been Revised Down?
| Q2 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth Estimates | No final consensus analyst estimates found for North America and China [^] |
|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. Price Target Revision | Raised to $100.00 [^] |
| Overall Analyst Revisions Since April 1, 2026 | Generally upward adjustments; no significant downward revisions [^] |
Specific consensus estimates for Starbucks' Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth are unavailable. The reviewed web research does not detail final consensus analyst estimates from FactSet or Bloomberg for Starbucks' Q2 2026 comparable store sales growth in North America and China [^]. The provided sources primarily offer general outlooks and previews for the upcoming Q2 earnings report, emphasizing expectations for Starbucks' ongoing turnaround efforts to gain momentum [^].
Analysts have generally shown optimistic sentiment, with upward revisions since April 1, 2026. Major investment banks have not published significant downward adjustments for Starbucks. Instead, there is an indication of a more positive outlook, with analysts generally raising their targets ahead of the Q2 2026 earnings preview [^]. Notably, JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its price target for Starbucks to $100.00 [^]. The market appears to be showing signs of a warming reception to the company's performance and its turnaround initiatives [^].
6. What was Starbucks' labor and unionization status in Q2 2026?
| Court Decision | NLRB unfair labor practice ruling against Starbucks vacated (April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| New Unionization Wave | No new wave (more than 10 stores/week) reported for Q2 2026 [^] |
| Individual Store Unionization | Several stores announced intent to unionize (April 2026) [^] |
A key court decision impacted Starbucks' collective bargaining in Q2 2026. On April 20, 2026, a significant U.S. court decision vacated an unfair labor practice finding against Starbucks by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) [^]. This ruling requires the NLRB to reconsider its prior findings concerning Starbucks' subpoenas for internal documents [^]. This legal development was viewed as a win for Starbucks, influencing its broader collective bargaining disputes [^].
No new unionization wave occurred, but individual store efforts continued. Despite individual Starbucks stores announcing intentions to unionize in April 2026, such as a Springfield store setting a union vote [^] and baristas at the "original" Starbucks location declaring their intent [^], the research does not indicate a new wave of unionization votes occurring at more than 10 stores in a single week during Q2 2026. Nevertheless, ongoing labor tensions were present, evidenced by Starbucks Workers United proposing a new contract in March 2026 [^] and reports of strikes in April 2026 [^].
7. Did Starbucks Loyalty See Q2 2026 Growth from Promotions?
| Q2 2026 Average Ticket Size Increase | Not presented from alternative data sources [^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Transaction Frequency Increase | Not presented from alternative data sources [^] |
| Q2 2026 Loyalty Program Promotion Correlation | No explicit correlation reported [^] |
Specific quantitative data from alternative providers for Starbucks' loyalty program is unavailable. Research indicates that specific quantitative data from alternative data providers, such as Bloomberg Second Measure or Earnest Analytics, showing a statistically significant quarter-over-quarter increase in average ticket size or transaction frequency for Starbucks' loyalty program members in Q2 2026 is not available in the provided sources [^]. There is also no explicit correlation reported between these metrics and a major 'Promotion' by these alternative data sources within the materials [^]. While Earnest Analytics did note a slowdown in Starbucks card reloads in 2025, this data does not pertain to the requested Q2 2026 loyalty member performance metrics [^].
Starbucks implemented loyalty program changes despite absent specific performance metrics. During Q2 2026, loyalty changes were observed by April to attract value-conscious customers [^]. However, the provided sources do not offer detailed quantitative metrics like average ticket size or transaction frequency increases directly from alternative data providers for this period, nor do they detail a correlation with a specific major promotion [^]. Starbucks was anticipated to announce its Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 results via a conference call, with broader discussions on its turnaround strategy [^].
8. How Do New Tariff Policies Impact U.S. Coffee Import Costs?
| Federal tariff refund portal operational | April 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Coffee tariff exemption reported | March 9, 2026 [^] |
| Coffee tariff exemption effective since | November 13 (prior year) [^] |
U.S. policies during Q2 2026 eased coffee import costs for businesses. A federal portal for tariff refunds opened on April 23, 2026 [^], enabling importers to recover previously paid tariffs or benefit from ongoing adjustments. This initiative supplements an existing U.S. policy, reported on March 9, 2026, which exempts most newly imported coffee from tariffs, a policy that has been in effect since November 13 of the prior year [^].
These measures significantly reduce Starbucks' cost of goods sold for the upcoming two quarters. The combination of the ongoing tariff exemption for most imported coffee and the activation of the new refund portal in Q2 2026 is expected to materially impact companies like Starbucks. By lowering import costs through exemptions and potential refunds, these actions directly decrease the overall cost of sourcing coffee beans, thereby reducing COGS for imported raw materials.
China's Ministry of Commerce issued no new coffee trade policies in Q2 2026. No specific new international trade policy announcements or official import/export data regarding coffee beans or tariffs were detailed from China's Ministry of Commerce during Q2 2026 that would have a direct material impact on Starbucks' COGS during this period, based on the provided research.
9. Did Starbucks China's New Latte Line Boost Market Value?
| Product Launch Date | April 7, 2026 (China) [^] |
|---|---|
| China Strategy Focus | Health-conscious, high-protein offerings [^] |
| Analyst Outlook | Jefferies upgrade citing U.S. stabilization and positive China exposure [^] |
A significant event contributing to a market jump on or immediately before April 18, 2026, was Starbucks China's nationwide launch of a high-protein latte line. This major product introduction occurred on April 7, 2026, and is designed to capitalize on China's expanding health trend, marking a crucial strategic initiative for the company in a key international market [^]. This launch aligns with Starbucks China's broader focus on health-oriented, high-protein offerings, which was also reported in April 2026 [^].
Analyst upgrades reinforced positive market sentiment for Starbucks following this event. Such a major product launch in a vital market, coupled with evolving consumer preferences, likely generated positive market sentiment that contributed to an upward movement in stock value. This positive reaction is further supported by favorable shifts noted by investment analysts, including Jefferies upgrading Starbucks while citing a stabilizing U.S. market and positive shifts in China exposure [^]. The combination of a significant new product initiative directly pertaining to China's recovery and improved market conditions observed by analysts provides a strong rationale for the observed market jump.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 30, 2026
- Closes: September 30, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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