UT-03 Republican nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Celeste Maloy to be the UT-03 Republican nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Incumbent Maloy shows strong in-state fundraising and Governor Cox's endorsement.
- Maloy lacks endorsements from Senator Lee and the House Freedom Fund.
- Colby Jenkins secured key endorsements from Senator Lee and House Freedom Fund.
- Jenkins' financial contributions data is not available in the research.
- Phil Lyman shows no reported fundraising data or major endorsements.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celeste Maloy | 70.0% | 75.5% | Celeste Maloy holds a strong position as the perceived frontrunner in the Republican primary. |
| Phil Lyman | 29.0% | 24.5% | Phil Lyman remains a contender, but faces significant challenges against the frontrunner in the primary. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, this market has demonstrated a clear upward trend, with the implied probability of a "YES" outcome rising from a starting point of 63.0% to a current high of 70.0%. The contract experienced an early dip to a low of 61.0%, which established a significant support level. Following this dip, the price reversed sharply and climbed to its current peak. As no specific news or external context was provided, this price appreciation appears to be driven by organic market sentiment and trading dynamics rather than a reaction to a specific event. The movement from the low 60s to 70.0% indicates a strengthening consensus among traders in favor of the "YES" outcome.
The trading volume provides additional insight into market conviction. The total volume of 8,864 contracts suggests moderate but meaningful activity. Notably, trading volume appears to have been concentrated around the price dip to 61.0%, indicating that traders viewed this lower price as a buying opportunity, which subsequently fueled the upward trend. The price floor around 61.0% acted as a strong support level, while the current price of 70.0% represents the recent peak and may function as a new resistance level. Overall, the combination of a rising price trend and focused buying at lower levels suggests a growing and confident market sentiment that the "YES" side will resolve correctly.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Celeste Maloy wins the Republican Party's nomination for the 2026 UT-03 House seat, and No if she does not. The outcome will be verified by the Democratic and Republican Parties. The market opened on March 9, 2026, and will close either upon her nomination win or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT, with trading prohibited for employees of the verification Source Agencies.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celeste Maloy | $0.70 | $0.31 | 70% |
| Phil Lyman | $0.30 | $0.71 | 29% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What is the Utah GOP Convention Candidate Win Rate?
| Convention-endorsed win rate | 26.1% (6 out of 23 contests) [^] |
|---|---|
| Total dual-track GOP primaries (2014-present) | 23 [^] |
| Signature-gathering wins in 2022 primaries | 5 out of 6 matchups [^] |
Since Utah's dual-track system was established in 2014, convention-endorsed candidates show low primary win rates. Republican candidates endorsed by the state convention who faced an opponent qualifying via signature gathering have won approximately 26.1% of their primary elections. This figure represents 6 wins out of 23 such contests since the system's establishment [^].
Signature-gathering candidates consistently outperform convention-endorsed opponents in Utah GOP primaries. This trend indicates a substantial challenge for convention-endorsed candidates when competing against opponents who gained ballot access through signature gathering. Candidates utilizing the signature-gathering path have demonstrated strong performance against convention-only opponents in Republican primaries [^]. Notably, in the 2022 Republican primaries, candidates who qualified by signature gathering secured victories in five out of six matchups against their convention-only counterparts [^].
5. What is the In-State vs. PAC Contribution Ratio for UT-03 Candidates?
| Celeste Maloy Q1 2024 Contribution Ratio | Approximately 1.74:1 (in-state individual to total PAC) [^] |
|---|---|
| Phil Lyman Contribution Data Availability | Not available in provided sources [^] |
| Celeste Maloy 2023 Special Election Contribution Ratio | Approximately 1.86:1 (in-state individual to total PAC) [^] |
Celeste Maloy's current campaign fundraising exhibits a 1.74:1 in-state individual to total PAC contributions ratio. For the first quarter of 2024, her campaign reported $209,300 in individual contributions from within Utah and $120,000 in total PAC contributions [^]. It is important to note that the available sources do not provide a specific breakdown of these PAC contributions into in-state versus out-of-state figures [^].
Detailed financial contribution data for Phil Lyman's campaign is not available, preventing a ratio determination. The provided research lacks specific figures for individual or PAC contributions and their geographic origin, making it impossible to calculate the requested ratio for him [^]. In comparison, Celeste Maloy's 2023 special election campaign showed an approximate ratio of 1.86:1 for in-state individual contributions to total PAC contributions [^]. This prior campaign therefore exhibited a slightly higher proportion of in-state individual funding relative to total PAC contributions compared to her current campaign's first quarter 2024 performance.
6. Which Candidates Received Key Endorsements in Utah's Primary?
| Governor Spencer Cox Endorsement | Celeste Maloy [^] |
|---|---|
| Senator Mike Lee Endorsement | Colby Jenkins [^] |
| House Freedom Fund Endorsement | Colby Jenkins [^] |
Governor Spencer Cox endorsed Celeste Maloy; Senators Lee and Romney did not support her. Celeste Maloy secured an endorsement from Governor Spencer Cox, who officially backed the incumbent Representative in June 2024 [^]. In contrast, Senator Mike Lee did not endorse either Celeste Maloy or Phil Lyman; instead, he publicly supported Colby Jenkins, a challenger in the Republican primary [^]. Senator Mitt Romney has not publicly endorsed Celeste Maloy or Phil Lyman based on the available information.
The House Freedom Fund endorsed Colby Jenkins, not Maloy or Lyman. The national House Freedom Fund publicly endorsed Colby Jenkins [^]. Neither Celeste Maloy nor Phil Lyman received an endorsement from the national House Freedom Fund.
7. Are UT-03 Republican Primary Ad-Buy Details Available?
| UT-03 Primary Ad-Buy Spending | Not available for final three weeks to June 25, 2026 primary (Sources: No specific data found [^], [^], [^], [^]) |
|---|---|
| UT-03 Primary GRPs | Not available for final three weeks to June 25, 2026 primary (Sources: No specific data found [^], [^], [^], [^]) |
| Specific FCC record date found | "2024" (predates 2026 primary) [^] |
Specific ad-buy spending and GRPs were unavailable for the 2026 primary. The specific ad-buy spending and Gross Rating Points (GRPs) secured by candidates and Super PACs for the final three weeks leading up to the June 25, 2026 primary election in the Salt Lake City and St. George media markets could not be found within the available sources. While general election context and broader campaign finance data for the 2026 election were accessible, these resources did not provide detailed information on specific television ad purchases, their associated costs, or the GRPs achieved for the designated primary period [^], [^], [^], [^].
FCC public inspection files also lacked specific 2026 primary data. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) public inspection files for TV stations KUTV, KSTU, KMYU, and KUEW were reviewed, but these presented general station profiles rather than specific political advertising contracts relevant to the 2026 UT-03 primary within the specified three-week window [^], [^], [^], [^]. Additionally, one particular FCC file entry referenced KSTU for "non-candidate-issue-ads" concerning "conservative-values-for-utah," but this record was explicitly dated "2024," rendering it irrelevant to the June 25, 2026 primary election [^].
8. Are Specific Maloy-Lyman Debate Dates or Recent Polls Available?
| Scheduled One-on-One Debate Dates (Maloy vs. Lyman) | No specific scheduled dates found in research [^] |
|---|---|
| Scheduled One-on-One Debate Broadcast Information | No broadcast details for scheduled one-on-one debates found [^] |
| Non-partisan UT-03 Primary Polls (Last 30 days) | No information on polls released in the last 30 days found in research [^] |
No scheduled one-on-one debates found for Maloy and Lyman. No specific details, including dates, hosts, or broadcast information, are available for dedicated one-on-one debates between Celeste Maloy and Phil Lyman in the UT-03 congressional race. While both candidates have participated in public forums and addressed key issues such as immigration, economic policy, and federal spending [^], and articles discuss their differing stances and campaign issues, suggesting ongoing engagement [^], concrete scheduling for single-candidate debates is absent.
No non-partisan UT-03 primary polls released recently. For the UT-03 primary within the last 30 days, no non-partisan polling information was found. Although the research noted campaign aspects like Celeste Maloy's fundraising lead [^] and her advancement to the primary through the Utah Republican Party convention [^], no non-partisan polling data for this specific race within the requested timeframe was discovered or referenced in the available sources.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
