Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Mayes Middleton is most likely to be the Texas Republican Attorney General nominee in 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Mayes Middleton leads Chip Roy by 9 points in recent University of Houston polling.
- Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick publicly endorsed Mayes Middleton's campaign.
- Middleton's primary lead is reported to align with a 55% runoff win rate.
- Chip Roy emphasizes his legal experience and conservative principles.
- Incumbent Ken Paxton's 2026 U.S. Senate bid opened the Attorney General race.
- First-place primary candidates often win subsequent Texas runoff elections.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chip Roy | 38.0% | 29.5% | Chip Roy's background as Texas' First Assistant Attorney General emphasizes his legal experience and conservative credentials. |
| Mayes Middleton | 67.0% | 70.5% | Mayes Middleton leads Chip Roy by 9 points in a University of Houston poll and is endorsed by Dan Patrick. |
Current Context
Texas Republicans will select their Attorney General nominee in a May runoff. The Republican nominee for the 2026 Texas Attorney General election will be decided in a runoff on May 26, 2026, featuring State Senator Mayes Middleton and U.S. Representative Chip Roy [^][^][^][^]. This runoff follows the primary election held on March 3, 2026 [^][^][^]. Incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton opted not to seek a fourth term, choosing instead to run for the U.S. Senate, opening the race for a new nominee [^][^][^]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^].
Middleton and Roy advanced to a runoff due to primary results. In the Republican primary, Mayes Middleton secured 39.2% of the vote, while Chip Roy received 31.7% [^][^][^]. As neither candidate reached the 50% threshold, they advanced to the runoff [^][^]. Middleton positions himself as a natural successor to Ken Paxton, emphasizing an "America First movement" and focusing on public safety, border security, and law and order [^]. Conversely, Roy, who previously served as Texas' First Assistant Attorney General under Paxton, supports Paxton's legal approach but highlights his own strength and independence [^]. Roy's campaign prioritizes defending Texas against federal interference, securing borders, and ensuring safety [^]. While he has acknowledged a relationship with former President Trump, he has also publicly criticized Trump's conduct during the January 6th events [^]. Experts observe both candidates advocate for similar policies, including a pro-life stance and secure borders [^].
Recent polls favor Middleton, with prediction markets actively tracking the race. A University of Houston poll conducted from April 28 to May 3, 2026, indicates Mayes Middleton holds a nine-percentage-point lead over Chip Roy, with 48% to 39% support among likely Republican runoff voters for Attorney General [^][^]. Political experts generally anticipate that the eventual Republican nominee is likely to win the general election, thereby maintaining the GOP's significant influence in statewide Texas offices [^]. Furthermore, prediction markets, such as Robinhood, are actively monitoring and tracking the odds for both Mayes Middleton and Chip Roy in this crucial Republican Attorney General nominee race [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The prediction market for the Texas Republican Attorney General nominee has displayed a volatile but generally upward trend. The contract for Chip Roy started at an 18.0% probability and is currently priced at 38.0%, having traded within a wide range of 5.5% to 47.0%. The most significant movements occurred in late April. On April 25, 2026, the price dropped 10.9 percentage points to 8.1%. This decline was attributed to a contentious phase of the campaign, marked by extensive spending on television attack ads targeting Roy. This was followed by a sharp reversal on April 29, 2026, when the price spiked 22.0 percentage points to 32.0% during a period of heightened activity in the runoff race.
These sharp price swings suggest a market highly sensitive to campaign developments. The drop to the 8% level appears to have established a support floor, from which the price quickly recovered, indicating trader belief that the negative ads had a limited long-term impact on Roy's chances. The previous high of 47.0% acts as a key resistance level that the market has not yet surpassed. Since the spike, the price has stabilized and climbed to 38.0%, suggesting a more positive sentiment has taken hold. The total volume of 31,114 contracts shows active participation, though sample data indicates that trading may be concentrated around specific news events. Overall, the chart reflects a market that views Roy as a serious contender whose odds have improved, but one that still faces significant uncertainty ahead of the May runoff.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Mayes Middleton
📈 May 05, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 57.0% to 70.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Mayes Middleton's prediction market price spike on May 05, 2026, was a combination of a significant political endorsement and favorable new polling data. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick publicly endorsed Middleton in the Republican attorney general runoff, a move expected to provide substantial momentum to his campaign [^][^]. Additionally, new polling data released around the same date indicated Middleton held a lead over opponent Chip Roy, polling 48% to 39% among likely voters [^][^]. Based on the available information, social media was not identified as a primary driver; the key developments were reported by traditional news outlets.
Outcome: Chip Roy
📈 April 29, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 32.0%
What happened: While no specific social media posts or viral narratives directly causing the spike on April 29, 2026, are identified in the provided sources, the period saw heightened activity in the Texas Republican Attorney General runoff [^]. News reports from late April indicated a contentious campaign characterized by escalating attacks and significant media spending between Chip Roy and Mayes Middleton, coinciding with the market movement [^]. This intensified campaign environment and increased traditional media scrutiny likely served as the primary driver for the 22.0 percentage point spike [^]. Social media activity was not a primary driver for this specific price movement, though earlier rhetoric may have contributed to general discussion.
📉 April 25, 2026: 10.9pp drop
Price decreased from 19.0% to 8.1%
What happened: The 10.9 percentage point drop in Chip Roy's prediction market price on April 25, 2026, was primarily driven by the escalating "contentious fight" between Roy and Mayes Middleton, characterized by "extensive spending on television attack ads" [^][^]. Middleton's campaign critically targeted Roy's past statements regarding January 6, 2021, and his vote to certify the 2020 election, while promoting Middleton as "MAGA Mayes" [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This continuous campaign narrative likely shifted voter sentiment leading up to and coinciding with the market movement, as subsequently reflected in a poll conducted between April 28 and May 1, which showed Middleton taking a lead [^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver or significant accelerant based on the available information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Mayes Middleton wins the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 Texas Attorney General election, with the outcome verified by the State of Texas; otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on December 28, 2025, and will close early if the event occurs, or by March 3, 2027, at 10:00 am EST. Insider trading by persons employed by any of the Source Agencies is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton | $0.68 | $0.33 | 67% |
| Chip Roy | $0.37 | $0.68 | 38% |
Market Discussion
Traders are primarily discussing Mayes Middleton and Chip Roy as potential Republican nominees for Texas Attorney General. Mayes Middleton is currently favored with a 67% probability, while Chip Roy holds 38% and has seen a slight recent increase. Supporters for Middleton expressed general enthusiasm, while "Roymentum" was cited for Chip Roy, though specific in-depth arguments are limited in the discussion.
5. How do the campaign strategies and messaging of Chip Roy and Mayes Middleton differ in their appeals to Texas Republican runoff voters?
| Chip Roy's appeal | Legal experience and conservative credentials [^] |
|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton's branding | MAGA Mayes and Trump alignment [^][^][^] |
| Middleton's policy focus | Culture-war issues like transgender restroom restrictions [^][^][^] |
Chip Roy emphasizes experience and conservative principles in his campaign. He highlights his legal background, conservative credentials, and tenure in the attorney general's office, focusing on "Texas, first and foremost" conservative principles and the integrity of judicial and electoral processes [^][^]. Roy asserts his unique qualifications, stemming from a combination of courtroom and prosecutor experience alongside his prior elected and office roles [^].
Mayes Middleton's campaign primarily aligns with Donald Trump's brand. He identifies himself as "MAGA Mayes" and uses advertising to claim that Trump "doesn't trust" his opponent [^][^][^]. Middleton directly attacks Roy for his vote to certify the 2020 election results, aiming to position himself as the candidate more faithful to the "MAGA" movement [^][^].
Middleton also champions culture-war issues and legislative achievements. His campaign focuses on advocating for conservative bills, including measures restricting transgender restroom use and other anti-transgender policies in schools and sports [^][^][^]. He leverages this legislative record to bolster his appeal for the Attorney General position, emphasizing policy outcomes rather than detailed agency management [^].
6. What does recent polling, such as the University of Houston survey, indicate about Mayes Middleton's lead over Chip Roy among likely runoff voters?
| Middleton lead (UH Hobby School survey) | 9 points (48% to 39%) [^] |
|---|---|
| Middleton implied probability (Polymarket) | 72-74% [^] |
| Middleton implied probability (Solflare/Kalshi) | 73% [^] |
Recent polling suggests Mayes Middleton leads Chip Roy significantly among runoff voters. A University of Houston Hobby School survey, conducted from April 28 to May 1, showed Middleton leading Roy by 9 points among likely GOP runoff voters. The survey found Middleton at 48% and Roy at 39%, with 13% of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed remaining undecided [^].
Prediction markets show strong consensus for Middleton to win the runoff. On Polymarket, the implied probability for Mayes Middleton to win the Texas GOP attorney general primary runoff is approximately 72-74%. Chip Roy's implied probability on Polymarket stands at about 48% [^]. Similarly, the Solflare/Kalshi prediction market lists Mayes Middleton at 73% and Chip Roy at 29% for the 'Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?'. These market figures indicate that participants in these prediction markets price Middleton as the much more likely GOP nominee compared to Roy [^].
7. Which potential endorsements before the May 26 runoff, particularly from figures like Donald Trump or Governor Greg Abbott, could serve as a major catalyst for either Chip Roy or Mayes Middleton?
| Donald Trump Endorsement | Neither Chip Roy nor Mayes Middleton endorsed in runoff [^] |
|---|---|
| Governor Greg Abbott Endorsement | Neither Chip Roy nor Mayes Middleton endorsed in runoff [^][^][^] |
| Endorsement Significance | Potential game-changer (Trump), significant advantage (Abbott) [^][^] |
Donald Trump has maintained neutrality in the Texas Attorney General runoff. Despite Mayes Middleton's campaign actively positioning him as a proponent of "Trump's agenda" and using the moniker "MAGA Mayes," Donald Trump has not endorsed either Middleton or Chip Roy [^][^][^][^][^]. Middleton's campaign has also run advertisements suggesting "Trump doesn't trust RINO Chip Roy," while Roy has highlighted his own relationship with Trump but also faced scrutiny for publicly criticizing Trump's conduct during the January 6, 2021, events, a point that Middleton's campaign has emphasized [^][^][^]. Trump had previously abstained from endorsing in a separate Texas Senate runoff, indicating a pattern of neutrality in certain Texas contests [^][^][^]. A formal endorsement from Trump in this race is considered a "potential, but currently absent, game-changer" [^].
Governor Greg Abbott has also refrained from endorsing either candidate in the Attorney General runoff [^] [^] [^] . Although Governor Abbott has issued endorsements in other 2026 primary races, and his backing is generally viewed as a significant advantage in Texas GOP primaries, he has not yet intervened in this specific contest [^]. Like a potential Trump endorsement, Abbott's backing is recognized as a significant advantage for a candidate; however, neither prominent figure has chosen to provide an endorsement in this race [^][^].
8. What does turnout data from the March 3 Republican primary reveal about each candidate's regional strongholds and path to victory in the May 26 runoff?
| Texas AG Primary Turnout | Approximately 2 million people (11% of registered voters) [^] |
|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton Primary Vote | 39.2% [^][^] |
| Chip Roy Primary Vote | 31.7% [^][^] |
Middleton and Roy advance to runoff after low primary turnout. The March 3, 2026, Republican primary for Texas Attorney General saw approximately 2 million participants, representing about 11% of the state's 18.7 million registered voters [^]. From a field of four candidates, Mayes Middleton secured 39.2% of the vote, and Chip Roy received 31.7%, leading them to the May 26 runoff [^][^]. Historically, runoff elections in Texas experience even lower turnout, as exemplified by the 2022 Attorney General runoff which drew only about 900,000 voters [^].
Mayes Middleton leverages conservative appeal and significant self-funding. A State Senator from the Galveston area, Middleton is expected to draw strong support from conservative voters, particularly in rural and exurban areas, due to his "MAGA Mayes" branding and focus on border security and law and order [^][^]. His campaign has been significantly bolstered by nearly $14 million in self-funding, enabling extensive advertising and outreach to broaden his appeal [^][^][^]. Middleton aims to consolidate the most conservative voters by aligning himself with the "America First" agenda and positioning himself as a successor to current Attorney General Ken Paxton [^]. A recent poll indicates Middleton holds a 48% to 39% lead over Roy among likely runoff voters [^].
Chip Roy relies on experience and endorsements amidst financial disparity. A U.S. Representative since 2019, Roy likely has concentrated support in Central Texas, including areas around Austin and San Antonio [^][^][^]. His previous role as Texas' First Assistant Attorney General under Ken Paxton provides him with name recognition and credibility among traditional Republican voters [^][^]. Roy's strategy includes leveraging his congressional name recognition, legal experience, and high-profile endorsements such as Senator Ted Cruz [^][^]. He plans to emphasize his commitment to defending Texas's borders and fighting federal overreach [^]. To win, Roy must significantly increase turnout among his base and attract voters who supported other primary candidates, all while contending with Middleton's substantial financial advantage [^][^]. The May 26 runoff is anticipated to be a contentious and expensive race, characterized by active campaigning and attack ads from both sides [^][^].
9. What is the historical precedent in Texas statewide elections for candidates who led the primary, like Mayes Middleton, ultimately winning the subsequent runoff?
| Runoff win rate (lead >10% & >40% vote) | 82% [^] |
|---|---|
| Runoff win rate (lead <10%) | 55% [^] |
| Overall win rate for first-place candidates | 60% [^] |
First-place primary candidates often win subsequent Texas runoff elections. Historically, candidates who finished first in Texas "open" primary runoff elections since 2002 have won approximately 60% of runoffs overall [^]. For first-place Republicans specifically, this success rate has been 55% in open runoffs during the same period [^].
Larger primary leads significantly increase runoff win probabilities for candidates. Detailed analysis shows that for statewide, legislative, and federal seats, a primary winner's lead of more than 10 percentage points, combined with securing over 40% of the vote, increases their runoff win rate significantly to 82% [^]. Conversely, if their lead is less than 10 points, the win rate drops to 55% [^]. The 2022 Texas Attorney General Republican runoff, where incumbent Ken Paxton finished first and defeated George P. Bush, exemplifies this trend [^].
Mayes Middleton's specific primary lead impacts his historical precedent. State Sen. Mayes Middleton finished first in the March Republican Attorney General primary and is set to face U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 26 GOP runoff [^][^]. However, the exact lead Mayes Middleton held over Chip Roy and his specific percentage of the vote in the primary are not specified in the current findings, which are crucial details needed to apply the more precise historical win rate percentages based on lead margins and vote share [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Texas Attorney General election features a runoff following incumbent Ken Paxton's decision to run for U.S. Senate instead of seeking re-election [^][^][^]. In the March 3 GOP primary, Mayes Middleton secured 765k votes (39%), while Chip Roy received 620k votes (32%). Other contenders included Huffman with 292k votes and Reitz with 278k votes [^].
Middleton's campaign was significantly supported by self-funding, with an estimated $10-14M, and he positioned himself as 'MAGA Mayes' [^] [^] . Post-primary Polymarket odds reflect a strong likelihood for Middleton, showing him at 79% to win the runoff compared to Roy's 16% [^]. The upcoming early voting period for the runoff is May 18-22, 2026 [^][^], in a race that Sabato's Crystal Ball has rated as Safe R [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 03, 2027
- Closes: March 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 Texas Attorney General election features a runoff following incumbent Ken Paxton's decision to run for U.S.
- Trigger: Senate instead of seeking re-election [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: In the March 3 GOP primary, Mayes Middleton secured 765k votes (39%), while Chip Roy received 620k votes (32%).
- Trigger: Other contenders included Huffman with 292k votes and Reitz with 278k votes [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAGNOMTXR-26-JHUF: NO (Mar 06, 2026)
- KXAGNOMTXR-26-AREI: NO (Mar 06, 2026)
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