Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Chip Roy secured key endorsements from Ted Cruz and Ken Paxton.
- Roy demonstrates superior ground-game organization in Tarrant County precincts.
- Mayes Middleton boasts a strong conservative legislative record, scoring 95%.
- Middleton plans to leverage the 2025 legislative session for campaign momentum.
- Attorney General Ken Paxton aims for a U.S. Senate seat.
- Research indicates a runoff between Roy and Middleton is likely.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chip Roy | 22.0% | 24.9% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Mayes Middleton | 82.0% | 75.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
š April 25, 2026: 10.9pp drop
Price decreased from 19.0% to 8.1%
Outcome: Chip Roy
š April 19, 2026: 15.5pp drop
Price decreased from 23.0% to 7.5%
Outcome: Chip Roy
š April 17, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 24.0%
Outcome: Chip Roy
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Mayes Middleton wins the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 Texas Attorney General election, and to No otherwise, with the outcome verified by the State of Texas. The market opened on December 28, 2025, and will close upon the event occurring (or by March 3, 2027, if it does not), with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Persons employed by any Source Agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton | $0.83 | $0.18 | 82% |
| Chip Roy | $0.26 | $0.78 | 22% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Are Ken Paxton's 2026 Political Intentions?
| 2026 Campaign Focus | U.S. Senate campaign preparation [^] |
|---|---|
| Campaign Consultants | Axiom Strategies hired for Senate bid [^] |
| Texas AG Endorsement | Aaron Reitz for Republican primary [^] |
6. Which Texas AG Candidate Secures Plurality of Abbott's Top Donor Backing?
| Abbott 2022 Total Contributions | Over $105 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Abbott 2022 Top Individual Donor | S. Javaid Anwar [^] |
| 2026 Texas AG Primary Funding | Millions pouring into GOP primary [^] |
7. Have Endorsements Impacted Roy and Middleton in Texas AG Race?
| Chip Roy Endorsements | U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, AG Ken Paxton [^] |
|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton Endorsements | Aaron Reitz [^], [^] |
| Current Race Status | Both proceeding to runoff election [^], [^], [^] |
8. Who Leads Texas AG Primary Precinct Chair Endorsements in Tarrant County?
| Chip Roy Tarrant County Endorsements | 28 precinct chair endorsements (January 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton Tarrant County Endorsements | 17 precinct chair endorsements (January 2026) [^] |
| Reitz Tarrant County Endorsements | 5 precinct chair endorsements (January 2026) [^] |
9. How Will Mayes Middleton Leverage 2025 Session for AG Bid?
| Candidate Role | Conservative Republican candidate for Texas Attorney General [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Platform Issues | Border security, election integrity, 'safest in America' [^] |
| Conservative Score | 95% on Texas Taxpayers and Research Association Index (2023 session) [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 03, 2027
- Closes: March 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAGNOMTXR-26-JHUF: NO (Mar 06, 2026)
- KXAGNOMTXR-26-AREI: NO (Mar 06, 2026)
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