NJ-12 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Bonnie Watson Coleman benefits from incumbency and progressive party backing.
- Verlina Reynolds-Jackson secured crucial Mercer County 'county line' endorsement.
- Sue Altman demonstrates strong grassroots and in-district financial support.
- Jamel Mapp gained the Union County Democratic 'county line' endorsement.
- Candidate endorsements are fragmented, lacking a unified progressive-union choice.
- Local "favorite son/daughter" dynamics significantly influence candidate viability.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamawy | 52.0% | 26.4% | Market higher by 25.6pp |
| Sue Altman | 15.0% | 9.1% | Market higher by 5.9pp |
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | 15.0% | 9.1% | Market higher by 5.9pp |
| Brad Cohen | 5.0% | 3.3% | Market higher by 1.7pp |
| Jay Vaingankar | 81.0% | 42.5% | Market higher by 38.5pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Adam Hamawy
📈 April 24, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 36.0% to 46.0%
📈 April 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 19.0%
Outcome: Sue Altman
📉 April 20, 2026: 73.0pp drop
Price decreased from 98.0% to 25.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Adam Hamawy wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 NJ-12 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on April 18, 2026, and will close when the outcome occurs or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Outcomes will be verified using the Republican and Democratic Party websites, and employees of these source agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Vaingankar | $0.12 | $0.95 | 81% |
| Adam Hamawy | $0.52 | $0.55 | 52% |
| Sue Altman | $0.17 | $0.85 | 15% |
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | $0.15 | $0.92 | 15% |
| Sam Wang | $0.07 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Adrian Mapp | $0.05 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Brad Cohen | $0.11 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Elijah Dixon | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kyle Little | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Matt Adams | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Shanel Robinson | $0.08 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Squire Servance | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Sujit Sign | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Who Received NJ-12 Democratic Endorsements in Mercer and Union Counties?
| Mercer County Endorsement | Verlina Reynolds-Jackson [^] |
|---|---|
| Union County Endorsement | Jamel Mapp [^] |
| Dual County Endorsement | No single candidate secured both [^] |
6. How Do Sue Altman and Verlina Reynolds-Jackson's Campaign Funds Compare?
| Sue Altman - Individual Contributions Under $200 | 29.0% [^] |
|---|---|
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson - Individual Contributions Under $200 | 22.7% [^] |
| Sue Altman - Contributions From NJ-12 Zip Codes | 59.5% [^] |
7. Which NJ-12 Democratic Primary Candidates Have Major Endorsements?
| NJ Working Families Party Endorsement | Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman [^] |
|---|---|
| CWA District 1 Endorsement | Daniel Reynolds-Jackson [^] |
| NJEA Endorsement | No candidate listed for NJ-12 [^] |
8. Do local endorsements impact NJ-12 primary in a fractured field?
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | Four-term Trenton lawmaker; endorsed by Mercer County Executive [^] |
|---|---|
| Adrian Mapp | Plainfield Mayor; backed by Union County Democrats [^] |
| NJ-12 Democratic Primary | Thirteen candidates are running [^] |
9. When Will NJ-12 Primary Campaign Spending Data Be Public?
| Primary Election Date | June 2, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Specific Spending Data Unavailable | Final 45 days (April 19 - June 2, 2026) [^], [^] |
| Future Data Source | Federal Election Commission (FEC) [^], [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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