MD-05 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Harry Dunn holds a commanding financial lead over all opponents.
- Adrian Boafo demonstrates strong local support with key endorsements.
- Boafo's campaign significantly trails Dunn in cash-on-hand resources.
- Rushern Baker III has very limited campaign funds and few new endorsements.
- Most other candidates lack significant financial backing or notable support.
- An unsettled mood prevails among MD-05 Democratic primary voters.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | 61.0% | 38.4% | Market higher by 22.6pp |
| Rushern Baker III | 14.0% | 7.7% | Market higher by 6.3pp |
| Quincy Bareebe | 2.0% | 2.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp |
| Harry Dunn | 14.0% | 34.2% | Model higher by 20.2pp |
| Wala Blegay | 5.2% | 5.4% | Model higher by 0.2pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 28, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 57.0% to 65.0%
Outcome: Adrian Boafo
📉 April 24, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 57.0%
Outcome: Adrian Boafo
📉 April 23, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 84.0% to 69.0%
Outcome: Adrian Boafo
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Adrian Boafo wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 MD-05 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on March 10, 2026, and closes either upon the outcome or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT. Outcomes are verified using the Democratic and Republican Party websites, and persons employed by Source Agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | $0.61 | $0.42 | 61% |
| Harry Dunn | $0.18 | $0.89 | 14% |
| Rushern Baker III | $0.10 | $0.90 | 14% |
| Wala Blegay | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Arthur Ellis | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Terry Jackson | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Heather Luper | $0.04 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Nicole Williams | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Quincy Bareebe | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Alexis Solis | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Dave Sundberg | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Elldwnia English | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Ellis Colvin | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Harold Tolbert | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Harry Jarin | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| James Makle Jr. | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jerry Lightfoot | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Keith Salkowski | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kenneth Simons | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Leigha Messick | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Mark Kenneth Arness | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Reuben Collins II | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Tracy Starr | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Walter Kirkland | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Do MD-05 Democratic Primary Candidates' Finances Compare?
| Harry Dunn Cash-on-Hand | $1,870,213 [^] |
|---|---|
| Rushern Baker III Cash-on-Hand | $121,144 [^] |
| Adrian Boafo Cash-on-Hand | $162,307 [^] |
6. Which Influential Figures Endorsed Adrian Boafo for MD-05?
| Former U.S. House Leader Endorsement | Steny Hoyer [^] |
|---|---|
| State Legislative Endorsements | Multiple State Senators and Delegates [^] |
| Key Labor Endorsements | Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 89, IAFF Local 1619 [^] |
7. When is the MD-05 Democratic Primary, and are ad buys tracked?
| MD-05 Democratic Primary Date | June 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Ad Buy Data for May 14 Primary | Not available [^] |
| Overall Race Spending Projection | Could exceed $8 million (April 2026 report) [^] |
8. How is Donor Support Distributed in MD-05 Democratic Primary?
| Adrian Boafo Local Donors | 88% from within MD-05 Congressional District [^] |
|---|---|
| Harry Dunn Donor Base | Broader donor base, significant portion from outside district [^] |
| Rushern Baker III Donor Data | FEC donor geography not yet available [^] |
9. What is the Mood in Maryland's 5th District Democratic Primary?
| Primary Election Date | June 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Democratic Mood | Unsettled regarding current candidate field [^] |
| Frontrunner Scrutiny | Readiness and strategic approach questioned for Jackson, Braveboy [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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