Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Charles Booker leads the Emerson College poll with 38% support.
- Amy McGrath ranks second, securing 29% of initial primary preferences.
- Pamela Stevenson shows strong second-choice appeal among rivals' supporters.
- No other declared candidates have significant polling support for 2026.
- Jacqueline Coleman is running for Governor, not the 2026 Senate seat.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amy McGrath | 12.0% | 11.5% | Amy McGrath ranks second in the Emerson College poll, positioning her as a major contender for the primary. |
| Charles Booker | 87.0% | 83.2% | Charles Booker leads the Emerson College poll among likely Democratic primary voters, establishing him as the frontrunner. |
| Pamela Stevenson | 2.5% | 2.4% | Pamela Stevenson is a notable candidate, appearing as a strong second choice for leading contenders. |
| Jared Randall | 2.0% | 1.9% | Jared Randall is a declared candidate, but lacks specific polling data to indicate significant support. |
| Rocky Adkins | 1.0% | 1.0% | Rocky Adkins is a declared candidate with minimal reported support in available polling data. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Charles Booker wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 Kentucky Senate seat, with the outcome verified by state governments. It resolves to NO if he does not win the nomination, and the market closes by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST. The market opened on November 11, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, and payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Booker | $0.89 | $0.12 | 87% |
| Amy McGrath | $0.12 | $0.90 | 12% |
| Pamela Stevenson | $0.01 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Jared Randall | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Rocky Adkins | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market strongly anticipates Charles Booker will be the Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee, currently showing an 87% probability. Amy McGrath is a distant second at 12%, while Pamela Stevenson is a long shot at 2.5%. Discussion among traders notes a perceived missed opportunity for Andy Beshear to run for the seat and suggests Joel Willett as another potential candidate for consideration.
4. Which Kentucky Senate Candidate Hired Beshear Staffers by Q3 2025?
| Democratic Primary Date | May 19 [^] |
|---|---|
| Anticipated Election Year | 2026 [^] |
| Potential Candidate Mentioned | Charles Booker [^] |
5. Can Small vs. Large, In-State vs. Out-of-State Contributions Be Quantified?
| Detailed Contribution Breakdown | Not directly available by both dollar amount and donor location from FEC overviews [^] |
|---|---|
| Overall Fundraising Totals | Available on FEC overview pages for 2026 election cycle for both candidates [^] |
| PAC Contributions | Available as distinct figures on FEC overview pages for both candidates [^] |
6. Which U.S. Senate Candidate Secured Endorsements by 2025?
| Pamela Stevenson Campaign Launch | March 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Rocky Adkins Candidacy Status | Not listed as official candidate [^] |
| Endorsements by End of 2025 | No information available for either candidate [1-10] [^] |
7. How Does Pamela Stevenson Rank in Kentucky's Democratic Primary Second-Choice Preferences?
| Stevenson's 2nd choice among Booker voters | 28% (Emerson College poll, Jan 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Stevenson's 2nd choice among McGrath voters | 35% (Emerson College poll, Jan 2026) [^] |
| Stevenson's initial support | 15% (Emerson College poll, Jan 2026) [^] |
8. Is DSCC Recruiting Jacqueline Coleman for 2026 Kentucky Senate?
| DSCC Recruitment Signal | No active effort for Jacqueline Coleman in 2026 Kentucky Senate before January 2026 [^]. |
|---|---|
| Coleman's Announced Candidacy | Running for Kentucky Governor in 2027 (Announced April 2026) [^]. |
| DSCC Public Statements | Vice chairs announced March 2024 [^]; "Path to Majority Memo" November 2023 [^]. |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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