ID-01 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Kaylee Peterson to be the ID-01 Democratic nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Peterson holds significant financial advantage with $88K raised by Dec 2025.
- Peterson's prior election experience suggests greater campaign viability and recognition.
- Brungardt lags significantly in fundraising, with only $13K raised by Dec 2025.
- Brungardt shows no major organized get-out-the-vote efforts or external support.
- Final May 2026 campaign finance reports are not yet publicly available.
- Ada and Canyon County Democrats have not formally endorsed either candidate.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylee Peterson | 98.0% | 96.1% | Peterson maintains a significant financial advantage and benefits from prior election experience. |
| Ken Brungardt | 7.0% | 3.9% | Brungardt's campaign suffers from significantly lower fundraising and a lack of organized voter mobilization. |
Current Context
The Democratic primary features two candidates for the May 19 election. Kaylee Peterson and Ken Brungardt are competing for the Democratic nomination in Idaho's 1st Congressional District on May 19, 2026 [^][^][^]. As of December 31, 2025, Peterson had a significant fundraising advantage, reporting $88,000 in contributions compared to Brungardt's $13,000 [^][^]. The primary election has not yet been held as of May 3, 2026, and no official results or public polls for this specific primary have been identified [^].
Kaylee Peterson has prior experience running in this Republican-leaning district. She previously ran for this congressional seat in both the 2022 and 2024 general elections [^][^]. In the 2024 general election, Peterson received 26% of the vote [^][^]. The district itself holds a strong Republican partisan lean of R+22, which is based on the 2020 and 2024 presidential results showing Trump receiving 71% and Harris 26% [^].
No specific prediction market odds available for the Democratic nominee. Currently, there are no identified prediction market odds specifically pertaining to the outcome of the Democratic nominee race for Idaho's 1st Congressional District [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a complete lack of price movement, opening and remaining static at a 7.0% probability. The chart shows a flat, sideways trend with no volatility, spikes, or dips since its inception. This indicates a stable consensus among the few participants who have traded. The price of 7.0% has served as the market's only significant price point, acting as both a support and resistance level by default due to the absence of trading pressure to move it.
The trading volume provides further insight into market conviction. The vast majority of the 180 contracts traded occurred on the first day, establishing the initial 7.0% price. Since then, volume has dropped to virtually zero, suggesting a lack of new traders or new information to challenge the initial sentiment. This low liquidity and static price suggest the market's initial assessment remains unchanged.
Based on the provided context, the market's low valuation of this outcome appears to be driven by fundamental factors known at the market's opening. The candidate in question, Ken Brungardt, faces a significant fundraising deficit against his opponent, Kaylee Peterson. The market priced in this disadvantage from the start, and the lack of any subsequent price action or volume suggests no new developments have occurred to alter the perception that he is a longshot to win the Democratic nomination. The chart reflects a strong, albeit thinly traded, bearish sentiment on this candidate's chances.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if Kaylee Peterson wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 ID-01 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on March 29, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, and will close either after the nomination outcome or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes later. Trading is prohibited for employees of the Republican and Democratic Parties, which are the designated Source Agencies for outcome verification.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylee Peterson | $0.99 | $0.06 | 98% |
| Ken Brungardt | $0.05 | $1.00 | 7% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion reveals contrasting viewpoints among traders regarding Kaylee Peterson's nomination for the ID-01 Democratic House seat. Kaylee Peterson herself predicts a 98% chance of winning the nomination ("Yes"), while Ken Brungardt foresees a much lower 7% chance ("No"). Despite this individual divergence, the market reflects a strong consensus that Kaylee Peterson will secure the nomination, with the "Yes" contract currently trading at 98.9%.
4. What is Kaylee Peterson's Q1 2026 Campaign Spending Breakdown?
| Q1 2026 Expenditure Breakdown | Information not available [^] |
|---|---|
| Candidate FEC ID | H2ID01192 [^] |
| 2026 Primary Election Date | May 19 [^] |
Specific Q1 2026 expenditure details for Kaylee Peterson are unavailable. The provided research does not contain sufficient information to determine the percentage of Kaylee Peterson's Q1 2026 campaign expenditures allocated to direct voter contact, such as mailers and digital ads, versus administrative overhead and consulting fees [^]. While FEC filings for Kaylee Peterson (H2ID01192) and her committee 'Kaylee for Congress' (C00808022) are noted, they do not include the specific Q1 2026 quarterly details required to answer this question [^][^][^].
Limited 2026 campaign finance data lacks specific allocation details. Kaylee Peterson is a Democratic candidate for Idaho's 1st congressional district in the 2026 primary election, scheduled for May 19, where she is running against Ken Brungardt [^]. Although Ballotpedia reports incomplete data for the 2026 cycle, showing approximately $88,000 raised and $85,000 spent, these aggregate figures do not provide the detailed breakdown of Q1 2026 expenditure allocations needed to fulfill the request [^]. Furthermore, expenditure data reported for the 2024 cycle is not relevant to the specific inquiry regarding Q1 2026 spending [^].
5. Have Ada and Canyon County Democrats Endorsed Peterson or Brungardt?
| Ada County Democratic Endorsement Status | No formal endorsement for Peterson or Brungardt [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Canyon County Democratic Endorsement Status | No formal endorsement for Peterson or Brungardt [^][^] |
| Primary Election Date | May 19, 2026 [^][^] |
Ada and Canyon County Democrats have not issued formal primary endorsements. As of May 3, 2026, the official Democratic Party Central Committees in Ada County and Canyon County have not issued a formal primary endorsement for either Kaylee Peterson or Ken Brungardt [^][^]. This also includes a lack of exclusive campaign resources, such as funds or staff, provided to either candidate. Ballotpedia further supports these findings, indicating no listed endorsements for either Brungardt or Peterson from county parties [^].
Ada County's voter guide lists both candidates neutrally. The official voter guide available on adademocrats.org/voter-guide-2026 for Ada County lists both 'Kaylee Peterson US House CD1' and 'Ken Brungardt US House CD1,' specifically without providing an endorsement for either candidate [^].
6. What was Kaylee Peterson's Vote Total in Top Democratic Boise Precincts?
| Kaylee Peterson 2024 General Election Votes | 118,656 (25.4%) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Kaylee Peterson 2024 Democratic Primary Votes | 13,982 (unopposed) [^][^] |
| Ada County 2024 Primary Turnout | Approximately 22% [^] |
Kaylee Peterson's specific vote total in top Democratic precincts is unavailable. The research does not directly specify Kaylee Peterson's raw vote total in the top 10% most Democratic-performing precincts of Boise during the 2024 general election [^][^][^]. Therefore, a direct comparison of her performance in these specific precincts to the total turnout of a low-turnout Democratic primary cannot be made. Overall, in the ID-01 2024 general election, Peterson secured 118,656 votes, accounting for 25.4% of the total votes cast [^][^][^]. While a precinct-level PDF details Peterson's votes across Ada County's approximately 197 precincts, such as Precinct 1001 (352 votes, 15.2%) and Precinct 1002 (287 votes, 13.0%), no direct source sums her votes within the top 10% Boise Democratic precincts without further data analysis [^][^][^].
Kaylee Peterson's primary vote total offers a comparison baseline. In the ID-01 2024 Democratic primary, Kaylee Peterson ran unopposed, receiving a total of 13,982 votes [^][^]. During this primary, Ada County experienced an approximate 22% turnout, which is categorized as low-normal. Even stronger Democratic areas within Boise, such as the North End (District 19), saw a turnout of about 19% [^].
7. Are There Major GOTV Efforts Supporting Ken Brungardt's Campaign?
| Major Non-Party GOTV | No public evidence of significant organized effort [^] |
|---|---|
| Campaign Funds Raised | $13,240 as of December 2025 [^] |
| Union/Progressive Endorsements | None listed for Brungardt or primary opponent [^] |
No major non-party groups are publicly supporting Brungardt's GOTV. There is no public evidence indicating a significant, organized get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort for Ken Brungardt from any major non-party group capable of mobilizing a voter bloc independently of his campaign's finances. Although Brungardt claims an endorsement from the NFFE, there is no corresponding public evidence of any GOTV or mobilization activities associated with this claim [^].
Prominent Idaho labor unions and progressive groups have not endorsed Brungardt. Major Idaho labor unions, including the Idaho AFL-CIO, IEA, and IBEW, and progressive organizations such as Reclaim Idaho or United Vision, have not been mentioned in connection with GOTV, voter mobilization, or organized efforts for Brungardt in the 2026 ID-01 Democratic primary [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While these unions are active in 2026 legislative primaries, with the IEA endorsing 50 candidates, they have remained silent regarding the federal ID-01 race [^][^]. Furthermore, no union or progressive endorsements are listed for either Brungardt or his primary opponent, Kaylee Peterson [^].
8. What were the Peterson vs Brungardt May 2026 campaign finance figures?
| Early-May-2026 Cash-on-Hand Differential | Not found (specific figures needed) [^] |
|---|---|
| Last-Minute Independent Expenditures | Not identified for either candidate [^] |
| Dec. 31, 2025 Cash-on-Hand Differential | $1,733 (Peterson $7,812, Brungardt $6,079) [^] |
Final cash-on-hand figures for May 2026 remain unavailable. The specific early-May-2026 filing figures from the FEC's 12-day pre-primary report, necessary to determine the final cash-on-hand differential between Peterson and Brungardt, were not located in the available sources [^]. While these pre-primary reports are a standard requirement, the specific financial values for these candidates were not found [^]. As a point of reference, Peterson reported $7,812 cash-on-hand and Brungardt reported $6,079 as of December 31, 2025, which indicated a $1,733 differential at that time [^]. However, these December 2025 figures do not represent the requested early-May-2026 pre-primary report data [^].
No last-minute independent expenditures were identified for candidates. The retrieved research did not reveal any last-minute independent expenditures for or against either Peterson or Brungardt [^]. To definitively confirm this absence, a targeted review of FEC filings specifically around the 12-day pre-primary window would be necessary [^]. Furthermore, the specific prediction market titled "ID-01 Democratic nominee?" which would provide insight into the ID-01 (D) race, was not found in the available sources, preventing the provision of a current market-implied probability or price with confidence [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is already seeing key candidates emerge, with California Governor Gavin Newsom currently leading Polymarket odds at 26% as of May 2026 [^] . Vice President Kamala Harris also shows strong support, topping an April 2026 YouGov poll as the ideal choice for 24% of respondents, with 52% considering her [^]. These figures highlight a dynamic field, which currently includes over 44 potential candidates on Polymarket and more than 30 listed on Ballotpedia, indicating a wide and competitive pool of hopefuls [^][^].
Critical catalysts for the 2028 cycle will unfold over the next two years. The Democratic National Committee is actively shaping the primary calendar, having received applications from 12 states by January 2026 to host early primaries, a process that will continue into 2027 [^]. Furthermore, the 2026 midterm elections, with primaries starting as early as May 2026 in states like Idaho and the general election on November 3, 2026, will serve as a significant precursor, offering insights into candidate viability, campaign strategies, and voter sentiment [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination is already seeing key candidates emerge, with California Governor Gavin Newsom currently leading Polymarket odds at 26% as of May 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Vice President Kamala Harris also shows strong support, topping an April 2026 YouGov poll as the ideal choice for 24% of respondents, with 52% considering her [^] .
- Trigger: These figures highlight a dynamic field, which currently includes over 44 potential candidates on Polymarket and more than 30 listed on Ballotpedia, indicating a wide and competitive pool of hopefuls [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Critical catalysts for the 2028 cycle will unfold over the next two years.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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