Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Jasmine Clark is most likely to be the GA-13 Democratic nominee, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Jasmine Clark leads candidates in campaign funds and ad spending.
  • Heavenly Kimes holds a clear name recognition advantage from television.
  • Incumbent David Scott holds a historical advantage in past primaries.
  • No candidate secured majority county-level Democratic Party endorsements.
  • Everton Blair Jr. reports zero campaign funds, severely hindering viability.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Jasmine Clark 79.0% 75.6% Market higher by 3.4pp
Everton Blair Jr. 18.0% 7.6% Market higher by 10.4pp
Heavenly Kimes 6.0% 7.8% Model higher by 1.8pp
Jeffree Fauntleroy Sr. 4.0% 3.7% Market higher by 0.3pp
Pierre Whatley 4.0% 3.7% Market higher by 0.3pp

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This analysis covers the prediction market for the GA-13 Democratic nominee. The market's price action has been largely sideways, trading within a very narrow band between 1.0% and 5.0%. The most significant movement was an early jump from a starting price of 1.0% to 4.0%. Since that initial adjustment, the price has remained relatively stable. The provided context does not offer any specific news or events that would explain this initial price increase. The current price of 4.0% suggests the market assigns a very low probability to this particular outcome.
Trading volume in this market is exceptionally low, with only 46 contracts traded in total across all 15 data points. This light volume indicates a lack of broad market participation and suggests that the price changes are based on a small number of trades. This low liquidity can lead to higher volatility, but in this case, it reflects minimal conviction or interest from traders. Given the limited price history and thin volume, distinct support and resistance levels are not well-established, though the price has so far been contained between 1.0% and 5.0%. Overall, market sentiment is decidedly bearish on the prospect, viewing it as a long-shot outcome with less than a 5% chance of occurring.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 April 22, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 11.0% to 25.0%

Outcome: Everton Blair Jr.

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

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Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Jasmine Clark wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 GA-13 House seat, with the outcome verified by the Democratic Party; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on April 22, 2026, and will close either after the nomination occurs or by April 23, 2027, at 10:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Persons employed by any of the Source Agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Jasmine Clark $0.79 $0.22 79%
Everton Blair Jr. $0.18 $0.83 18%
Heavenly Kimes $0.06 $0.99 6%
Jeffree Fauntleroy Sr. $0.04 $1.00 4%
Pierre Whatley $0.04 $1.00 4%
Emanuel Jones $0.04 $1.00 1%
Joe Lester $0.03 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. How Do Campaign Funds and Ad Spending Compare Among Candidates?

Jasmine Clark Cash on Hand$146,051.02 (as of April 30, 2026) [^]
Emanuel Jones Cash on Hand$15,134.13 (as of April 30, 2026) [^]
Everton Blair Jr. Cash on Hand$0.00 (as of March 31, 2026) [^]
Jasmine Clark's campaign held significantly more cash on hand than her opponents. According to FEC Form 3 Pre-Primary Reports filed around May 9, 2026, Clark reported $146,051.02 in cash on hand as of April 30, 2026 [^]. In comparison, Emanuel Jones's campaign reported $15,134.13 in cash on hand at the close of the same period [^]. For Everton Blair Jr., direct FEC filings indicating cash on hand around this period were not among the provided sources. However, Quiver Quantitative reported his campaign with $0 in cash on hand as of March 31, 2026 [^]. This information indicates a substantial financial disparity among the candidates, with Clark possessing significantly more cash than Jones, and Blair having none at the end of the previous reporting cycle [^].
Clark's campaign also outspent opponents on broadcast and digital advertising. An analysis of itemized disbursements from FEC Form 3 reports shows Jasmine Clark's campaign spent approximately $50,578.11 on digital and broadcast advertising. These expenditures included payments to Google, Facebook, The New Georgia Project, The Collective PAC, and various media buys for TV and radio advertising [^]. Emanuel Jones's campaign had approximately $37,867.60 in broadcast and digital ad expenditures, with payments directed to entities such as Atlanta Broadcasting, WUPA-TV, WFXA-FM, WAOK-AM, Facebook, Google, YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat, and Blueprint Strategies LLC for digital/new media advertising [^]. Due to the absence of specific FEC Form 3 data for Everton Blair Jr. among the provided sources and his reported $0 cash on hand, his broadcast/digital ad buy expenditures are not ascertainable but are presumed to be minimal [^]. Therefore, Clark leads in advertising spending, followed by Jones.

6. Which Candidates Have Key Endorsements in GA-13 Democratic Primary?

GA AFL-CIO Endorsement StatusNo formal endorsement for any candidate [^]
Congressional Black Caucus PAC Endorsement StatusNo endorsement for any candidate [^]
Majority County-level Democratic EndorsementsNo single candidate has secured majority endorsements (Based on current web research) [^]
No candidate has secured majority county-level Democratic Party endorsements in GA-13. The 2026 Democratic primary for Georgia's 13th Congressional District includes incumbent David Scott, Emanuel Jones, Brian Johnson, Marcus Flowers, Pamela G. Stephenson, and Rashid Malik among the contenders [^], [^], [^]. As of the current research, no single candidate has yet secured formal endorsements from the majority of county-level Democratic Party committees within GA-13, which include Cobb, Clayton, Douglas, Fayette, and Henry counties.
Key institutional players and specific party committees lack endorsements for this race. While candidate Emanuel Jones has garnered support from various individual unions, such as IBEW Local 613 and Ironworkers Local 387, and other organizations like the Georgia Alliance for Retired Americans, these do not constitute endorsements from the specific county-level Democratic Party committees [^]. Furthermore, the Georgia AFL-CIO has not formally endorsed any candidate in the 2026 GA-13 Democratic primary [^]. Similarly, the available research does not indicate an endorsement from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC for any of the candidates competing [^]. This signifies that major party and influential political action committee endorsements are currently outstanding for all candidates in the GA-13 Democratic primary.

7. How Do GA-13 Primary Voters Consolidate in a Runoff?

Runoff Consolidation DataNo specific polling or precinct-level data available to predict voter transfer [^]
2026 GA-13 Primary CandidatesSeven candidates, including Emanuel Jones and Jasmine Clark [^]
Last GA-13 Primary Runoff2020 Democratic primary required a runoff [^]
Specific data for runoff voter consolidation is currently unavailable. The available research does not provide specific polling or precinct-level data to indicate how voter bases of lower-polling candidates might consolidate between Emanuel Jones and Jasmine Clark in a potential runoff for Georgia's 13th Congressional District Democratic primary [^]. The 2026 primary features a seven-candidate field, including both Jones and Clark, increasing the probability of a runoff [^].
Past runoff patterns do not offer predictive insights. While the district has a history of runoffs, such as the 2020 Democratic primary between David Scott and Michael Owens, the sources do not detail the patterns of voter transfer during such events [^]. Subsequent primaries in 2022 and 2024 did not require runoffs, as the incumbent won outright with significant majorities [^]. Therefore, the provided information is insufficient to predict how specific voter bases from eliminated candidates would consolidate between current contenders like Jones and Clark.

8. Does Heavenly Kimes Hold a Name Recognition Advantage in GA-13 Primary?

Name RecognitionClear advantage in name recognition [^]
Early Polling LeadSignificant lead and polling ahead in hypothetical matchups [^]
Public Profile InfluenceLeverages reality television presence and social media [^]
Specific quantifiable metrics on name recognition are unavailable from research. Despite the absence of specific quantifiable data regarding Google Search Trends volume within the Atlanta media market or social media engagement rates for Dr. Heavenly Kimes and her political rivals in the 30 days preceding the May 19, 2026 Democratic primary, her significant public profile is recognized. This profile, stemming from her reality television presence and social media activity, has reportedly contributed to a "clear advantage in name recognition" and an initial lead in general polling against potential contenders [^].
Kimes' celebrity status likely provides a high baseline awareness. Indeed, early polling data, collected prior to her official entry into the race, indicated that Kimes maintained a "significant lead" and was "polling ahead" in hypothetical matchups against potential rivals [^]. This suggests that her established celebrity status likely results in a higher baseline awareness among voters compared to other candidates for the GA-13 Democratic nomination [^]. State Representative Jasmine Clark is identified as a potential rival [^]; however, comparative data concerning her name recognition, search volume, or social media engagement relative to Kimes is not present in the available research.

9. Can GA-13 Candidates' Precinct-Level GOTV Spending Be Tracked?

Geographic Expenditure DataNot available at precinct level for direct voter contact and GOTV [^]
All Candidate Expenditure DataNot comprehensive or comparable for all contenders [^]
Total GA-13 Challengers6 challengers total [^]
Federal Election Commission (FEC) expenditure reports lack the granular detail needed for specific analysis. Available FEC expenditure reports do not allow for the determination of which candidate allocates the highest percentage of their budget to direct voter contact and Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) operations specifically within the high-turnout Democratic precincts of Clayton and Douglas counties, as opposed to media buys [^]. While these reports, such as detailed Schedule B forms and candidate overviews, itemize expenses by payee and purpose, they do not include the granular geographic information, like precinct-level allocations, necessary for such a precise analysis [^]. Consequently, although categories such as "field staff salaries" or "canvassing expenses" are related to direct voter contact, their specific geographic targeting at the precinct level cannot be discerned from the data provided [^].
A comprehensive budget allocation comparison across candidates is currently not feasible. A comparative analysis across all contenders to identify the candidate allocating the highest percentage of their budget to direct voter contact and GOTV is not feasible with the currently available information [^]. Georgia's 13th Congressional District has a total of six challengers for the vacant seat, including Jasmine Clark [^]. However, comparable detailed expenditure reports for all other candidates in the GA-13 Democratic primary are not available within the provided sources, making it impossible to calculate and compare percentage allocations across all contenders [^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: April 23, 2027
  • Closes: April 23, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 8 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-PWHA: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
  • KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-JLES: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
  • KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-JFAU: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
  • KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-JCLA: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
  • KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-HKIM: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)