GA-13 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Jasmine Clark leads candidates in campaign funds and ad spending.
- Heavenly Kimes holds a clear name recognition advantage from television.
- Incumbent David Scott holds a historical advantage in past primaries.
- No candidate secured majority county-level Democratic Party endorsements.
- Everton Blair Jr. reports zero campaign funds, severely hindering viability.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Clark | 79.0% | 75.6% | Market higher by 3.4pp |
| Everton Blair Jr. | 18.0% | 7.6% | Market higher by 10.4pp |
| Heavenly Kimes | 6.0% | 7.8% | Model higher by 1.8pp |
| Jeffree Fauntleroy Sr. | 4.0% | 3.7% | Market higher by 0.3pp |
| Pierre Whatley | 4.0% | 3.7% | Market higher by 0.3pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 22, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 25.0%
Outcome: Everton Blair Jr.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Jasmine Clark wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 GA-13 House seat, with the outcome verified by the Democratic Party; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on April 22, 2026, and will close either after the nomination occurs or by April 23, 2027, at 10:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Persons employed by any of the Source Agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Clark | $0.79 | $0.22 | 79% |
| Everton Blair Jr. | $0.18 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Heavenly Kimes | $0.06 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Jeffree Fauntleroy Sr. | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Pierre Whatley | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Emanuel Jones | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Joe Lester | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Do Campaign Funds and Ad Spending Compare Among Candidates?
| Jasmine Clark Cash on Hand | $146,051.02 (as of April 30, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Emanuel Jones Cash on Hand | $15,134.13 (as of April 30, 2026) [^] |
| Everton Blair Jr. Cash on Hand | $0.00 (as of March 31, 2026) [^] |
6. Which Candidates Have Key Endorsements in GA-13 Democratic Primary?
| GA AFL-CIO Endorsement Status | No formal endorsement for any candidate [^] |
|---|---|
| Congressional Black Caucus PAC Endorsement Status | No endorsement for any candidate [^] |
| Majority County-level Democratic Endorsements | No single candidate has secured majority endorsements (Based on current web research) [^] |
7. How Do GA-13 Primary Voters Consolidate in a Runoff?
| Runoff Consolidation Data | No specific polling or precinct-level data available to predict voter transfer [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 GA-13 Primary Candidates | Seven candidates, including Emanuel Jones and Jasmine Clark [^] |
| Last GA-13 Primary Runoff | 2020 Democratic primary required a runoff [^] |
8. Does Heavenly Kimes Hold a Name Recognition Advantage in GA-13 Primary?
| Name Recognition | Clear advantage in name recognition [^] |
|---|---|
| Early Polling Lead | Significant lead and polling ahead in hypothetical matchups [^] |
| Public Profile Influence | Leverages reality television presence and social media [^] |
9. Can GA-13 Candidates' Precinct-Level GOTV Spending Be Tracked?
| Geographic Expenditure Data | Not available at precinct level for direct voter contact and GOTV [^] |
|---|---|
| All Candidate Expenditure Data | Not comprehensive or comparable for all contenders [^] |
| Total GA-13 Challengers | 6 challengers total [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 23, 2027
- Closes: April 23, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 8 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-PWHA: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-JLES: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-JFAU: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-JCLA: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
- KXGAPRIMARY-13D26-HKIM: SCALAR (Apr 22, 2026)
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