Who will win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election?

Direct comparison of Prime Minister Siliņa's approval with coalition partners is not possible. Specific quarterly personal net approval ratings for Prime Minister Evika Siliņa, as measured by the SKDS Baltija Barometer, are not provided in the available research. This absence of data means a direct trend analysis of her personal approval rating relative to her coalition partners' combined polling average cannot be performed with the given information.

Coalition partners show recent polling averages from SKDS surveys. Recent SKDS polls do offer insights into the support for her coalition partners. A survey by SKDS on March 31, 2026, indicated the Union of Greens and Farmers had 12.1% support, and The Progressives had 11.5%, resulting in a combined average of 23.6% for these two parties ^{[^]}. Earlier, an SKDS poll from November 4, 2025, showed the Union of Greens and Farmers with 10.7% support and The Progressives with 11.9%, leading to a combined average of 22.6% ^{[^]}.

Government performance evaluations differ from personal approval ratings. While the Latvian Employers' Confederation (LDDK) has evaluated Siliņa's government, giving it a 'Three' out of five for its performance ^{[^]}, these are evaluations of the government's overall work rather than her personal net approval rating from SKDS. Therefore, without specific quarterly data on Prime Minister Siliņa's personal net approval from the SKDS Baltija Barometer, it is not possible to project how her rating would trend compared to the combined polling average of her coalition partners.

For Stability. gained the dominant Russian-speaking vote share. Based on municipal-level election outcomes and analysis in Daugavpils and Rēzekne during the 2025 municipal elections, 'For Stability!' (Stabilitātei!) is evidenced to be securing the dominant share of the Russian-speaking vote. The party achieved victories in the Latgale electoral district, which encompasses both Daugavpils and Rēzekne ^{[^]}. This rise occurred concurrently with a significant decline in the popularity of 'Harmony' (Saskaņa) ^{[^]}.

'Harmony' experienced a substantial decline in public support. Analysis of the 2025 municipal elections indicates that 'Harmony' experienced a sharp drop in its public support, failing to achieve victories in Latgale cities previously led by its members, including Daugavpils and Rēzekne ^{[^]}. This decline suggests a substantial portion of the Russian-speaking electorate previously aligned with 'Harmony' has shifted its allegiance. The available evidence therefore points to 'For Stability!' as the political party consolidating a dominant share of the Russian-speaking vote, largely at the expense of 'Harmony' ^{[^]}.

Latvian voters prioritize economic issues over national security concerns. According to Latvia-specific Eurobarometer surveys conducted in late 2025, "inflation/rising prices/cost of living" was identified as the single most important issue by 42% of Latvians. This significantly outweighs concerns about the "international situation," which encompasses national security and Russia, cited by 23% of respondents ^{[^]}. This indicates that economic stability and personal financial well-being are more pressing issues for voters than broader geopolitical concerns, with 57% of Latvians perceiving their country's economic situation as "bad" ^{[^]}. This data originates from the Standard Eurobarometer 104, fielded in Autumn 2025 ^{[^]}.

No specific party is deemed most competent by Latvian voters. The 2025 Eurobarometer data for Latvia does not identify any particular party as most competent on these critical issues. Instead, the findings highlight a general low level of trust in national political institutions ^{[^]}. The survey revealed that only 31% of Latvians trust their government, and 28% trust the Saeima (parliament) ^{[^]}. This stands in stark contrast to the 64% of Latvians who expressed trust in the European Union ^{[^]}.

A strong pre-electoral alliance is probable between two opposition parties. Based on public statements and actions observed before 2026, there is a high likelihood of a formal pre-electoral alliance forming between the National Alliance and the United List. For instance, as of February 20, 2025, the National Alliance was actively "wooing United List for future government partnership" ^{[^]}. This overture demonstrates significant movement towards formal cooperation between these two parties well in advance of the 2026 parliamentary election.

No evidence supports Latvia First's inclusion in a broader alliance. Despite potential collaboration between the National Alliance and the United List, available sources lack specific public statements from leaders or details of joint legislative actions indicating a formal pre-electoral alliance involving Latvia First (Latvija Pirmajā Vietā, LPV) with either of the other two parties before 2026 ^{[^]}. The research, which specifically covers events before 2026, does not contain information regarding a broader alliance that would encompass Latvia First within this defined timeframe.

Latvia's ruling coalition faced significant disagreement on EU Green Deal legislation. The Saeima (Latvian parliament) encountered substantial internal disagreement concerning environmental bills essential for implementing the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the broader EU Green Deal. These crucial bills faced repeated postponements, and the Latvian parliament struggled to ensure a quorum for votes, which risked sanctions from the European Commission ^{[^]}. This legislative deadlock posed a threat of significant fines, potentially reaching at least 300 million euros, for Latvia ^{[^]}. A key "pollution law," vital for ETS implementation and to prevent these financial penalties, ultimately passed only after two previous attempts failed, clearly demonstrating considerable internal parliamentary challenges and a lack of immediate consensus among the governing parties ^{[^]}.

Defense spending legislation experienced much less internal disagreement within the coalition. In contrast to the environmental legislation, bills related to increased defense spending did not provoke comparable public disagreement or legislative difficulties among the ruling coalition members. The Saeima approved a measure to establish Latvia's defense spending at a minimum of 5% of GDP starting from 2027 ^{[^]}. There is no available information indicating any failed attempts, postponements, or quorum issues for this specific defense spending vote, which suggests significantly less internal resistance compared to the challenges encountered with the environmental legislation.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.