Which party will win the next UK general election?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the Reform party to win the next UK general election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Labour is consistently projected to win a substantial majority by MRP polls.
- Conservative Party faces significant projected losses and no overall victory.
- A large proportion of 2019 Conservative voters remain undecided.
- Liberal Democrats and other parties project very low seat counts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restore Britain party | 6.1% | 0.5% | Newer or minor parties typically struggle to gain significant national support in UK general elections. |
| Reform party | 38.0% | 40.7% | Despite growing support, the Reform Party lacks the national electoral base to win an overall majority. |
| Conservative party | 11.0% | 6.0% | All recent MRP polls project significant losses, with no indication of an overall victory for the Conservatives. |
| Green party | 13.0% | 14.5% | The Green Party typically secures few seats, lacking the widespread support for a general election win. |
| Labour party | 23.0% | 36.7% | Multiple recent MRP polls consistently project Labour to win a substantial majority in the next election. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided data, the price chart for this market shows a complete lack of volatility. The probability has remained static at 0.5% across all seven data points, indicating an entirely sideways trend with no significant price movements, spikes, or drops since its inception. Given the absence of any price fluctuation, there are no market dynamics to correlate with external news or developments.
The trading volume is exceptionally low, with a total of only two contracts traded over the entire period. This minimal activity points to a highly illiquid market and suggests a near-total lack of trader interest or conviction. In a market with no price movement, the 0.5% level technically acts as both the absolute support and resistance, as the price has not deviated from this point. This indicates that the market's initial pricing has not been challenged.
Overall, the chart suggests a stable and strong market consensus that this particular outcome has a very low, almost negligible, probability of occurring. The combination of the static, near-zero price and the virtually non-existent trading volume reflects a strong belief among the few market participants that this event is highly unlikely, with no new information or trading activity emerging to alter this sentiment.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a given party's market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if that party receives the most seats in the next UK general election. If two parties tie in seat count, the party with the highest percentage of the vote resolves to "Yes," and all others resolve to "No." The market opened on January 4, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, and will close after the election results are announced or by August 31, 2029, at 10:00 AM EDT, with outcomes verified by The New York Times and the House of Commons. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform party | $0.41 | $0.61 | 38% |
| Labour party | $0.24 | $0.77 | 23% |
| Green party | $0.10 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Conservative party | $0.13 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Restore Britain party | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Liberal Democratic party | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Your Party | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Bruv party | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion reveals considerable, often nationalistic, enthusiasm for the Reform party, with some traders expressing strong support for a "Yes" outcome. Conversely, some "No" positions on the Reform party might imply concerns about its current valuation or the sustainability of its rise. A key argument for the Green party gaining ground and Labour's position worsening is a recent Green party by-election win.
4. What Are Labour's Latest Projected Majorities in UK Election Polls?
| YouGov Jan 2024 Labour Majority | 146 seats [^] |
|---|---|
| Survation Jan 2024 Labour Majority | 144 seats [^] |
| More in Common April 2024 Labour Majority | 124 seats [^] |
Major MRP polls project Labour will win a large majority. Based on recent Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) polls, Labour is projected to secure a substantial majority in the upcoming UK general election. YouGov's January 2024 MRP projected Labour to win 472 seats, leading to a majority of 146 seats [^]. Similarly, Survation's January 2024 update indicated Labour on course for 470 seats, resulting in a 144-seat majority [^]. The most recent available analysis, More in Common's April MRP, projects Labour to secure 450 seats, translating to a majority of 124 seats [^].
More in Common's latest MRP shows a reduced Labour majority. A notable shift has occurred in More in Common's analysis over the past three months. Their April MRP projects a Labour majority of 124 seats [^], which marks a decrease of 22 seats compared to their January MRP projection of 146 seats [^]. This indicates a reduction in Labour's projected majority according to More in Common's polling [^]. Direct comparisons for YouGov and Survation to three months prior were not available within the provided January 2024 sources [^].
5. What is the Combined Conservative-Reform Vote Share in Marginal Seats?
| Combined Conservative and Reform UK Vote Share | 47.5% [^] |
|---|---|
| Labour Party Vote Share | 31.0% [^] |
| Combined Con+Reform UK Lead Over Labour | 16.5 percentage points [^] |
An analysis focused on the 100 most marginal Conservative-held constituencies. This research examined areas where Conservative candidates are projected to win with the smallest majorities, utilizing the Electoral Calculus MRP Poll from April 2026 [^]. These constituencies were identified by aggregating individual seat projections derived from detailed data [^].
Combined Conservative and Reform support significantly outpaces Labour in these key seats. For these 100 most marginal Conservative-held constituencies, the aggregate projected vote share for the Conservative Party averages approximately 32.5%, with Reform UK's projected vote share around 15.0%. When combined, the Conservative Party and Reform UK are projected to achieve a cumulative vote share of approximately 47.5%. In contrast, the projected Labour Party vote share in these same constituencies averages about 31.0%, indicating a combined Conservative and Reform lead of approximately 16.5 percentage points [^].
6. What Are Recent Trends in the GfK Major Purchase Index?
| GfK Major Purchase Index October 2025 | -30 (4) [^] |
|---|---|
| GfK Major Purchase Index November 2025 | -28 (4) [^] |
| GfK Major Purchase Index January 2026 | -24 (1, 8) [^] |
The GfK Major Purchase Index showed varied trends and data gaps over recent months. Between October 2025 and January 2026, this key sub-component of the Consumer Confidence Barometer exhibited fluctuations. The index started at -30 in October 2025 [^], improved to -28 in November 2025 [^], and then decreased to -29 in December 2025 [^]. A notable increase followed, bringing the index to -24 in January 2026 [^]. However, specific data for the Major Purchase Index sub-component for February, March, and April 2026 was not available in the provided sources, though overall GfK Consumer Confidence Index figures were mentioned for these months [^].
No correlation data was found regarding the Major Purchase Index and election outcomes. The research did not include any information or analysis on the historical relationship between the GfK Major Purchase Index and the incumbent party's performance in UK general elections. The available sources concentrated solely on recent GfK Consumer Confidence data and trends, without discussing long-term electoral patterns or historical linkages [1-10].
7. Which 2019 Voters Are Undecided in the UK General Election?
| Undecided voters who voted Conservative 2019 | 39% [^] |
|---|---|
| Undecided voters who voted Labour 2019 | 17% [^] |
| 2019 Conservative voters currently undecided | 13% [^] |
Undecided voters predominantly supported the Conservative Party in 2019. One week before the 2024 UK general election, 39% of voters currently classified as 'Undecided' reported having voted Conservative in the 2019 election [^]. This figure is more than twice the percentage of current undecided voters who cast their ballot for Labour in 2019, which stands at 17% [^]. This data indicates that the pool of currently undecided voters is disproportionately composed of individuals who previously supported the Conservative Party [^].
More 2019 Conservative voters are undecided than Labour voters. Separate polling indicates that 13% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 are currently undecided about their vote for the upcoming election [^]. In contrast, a smaller proportion, 4%, of 2019 Labour voters are currently undecided [^]. This suggests that a larger segment of the Conservative Party's past support base remains fluid in their voting intention compared to Labour's 2019 voters [^].
8. Why Was a UK Snap General Election Called for July 2024?
| Election Announcement Date | May 22, 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| Polling Date | July 4, 2024 [^] |
| Implied Probability (election before Sep 2024) | 100% (after announcement) [^] |
Prime Minister Sunak announced a snap general election for July 4, 2024. Rishi Sunak officially called the election on May 22, 2024 [^]. This confirmed high market expectations for an early ballot, with the implied probability of an election being called before September 2024 reaching 100% since the event had already taken place [^]. Prior to the official announcement, substantial betting activity indicated a growing expectation for a July election [^].
Sunak's decision was driven by economic improvements and strategic considerations. Political commentators attribute the Prime Minister's move to a combination of improving economic conditions and opportune political timing [^]. Specifically, Mr. Sunak highlighted falling inflation as a key economic improvement, which he saw as creating a favorable moment for an election [^]. This economic progress offered a window to capitalize on positive news and to "draw a contrast" between his party's proposals and those of the opposition [^]. Strategically, the snap election aimed to potentially pre-empt future negative events, such as delays in asylum seeker flights or a continued decline in Conservative support [^]. The timing also sought to catch the Labour Party off guard and counter the perception that Mr. Sunak was delaying the election as long as possible [^]. Despite consistently trailing in opinion polls, the Prime Minister expressed confidence that the improved economic outlook would alter the political landscape [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 31, 2029
- Closes: August 31, 2029
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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