How high will gas prices in Florida get this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect gas prices in Florida to reach above $3.00 in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Gulf Coast refineries face significant maintenance turnarounds through H1 2026.
- Florida's growing population and tourism recovery will increase demand.
- EIA forecasts stable U.S. crude oil production through Q1 2026.
- RBOB Managed Money positions indicate moderate bullish market sentiment.
- Department of Energy targets specific prices for Strategic Petroleum Reserve refills.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.30 | 65.0% | 65.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $4.50 | 47.0% | 48.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $4.70 | 37.0% | 39.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $5.90 | 9.0% | 10.9% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Above $5.70 | 11.0% | 13.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market displays a distinct long-term upward trend, having risen from a starting price of 18.0% to its current 65.0% probability. The price has traded within a wide range, from 18.0% to a peak of 79.0%, indicating significant shifts in sentiment over time. The period from April 17 to April 22 was marked by extreme volatility, with four separate price swings of 10 percentage points or more. These rapid, successive drops and spikes suggest a period of high uncertainty and disagreement among market participants before the price resumed its upward trajectory.
The provided context offers no specific news or events to explain what caused the significant price movements in mid-to-late April. The total traded volume of 1,465 contracts suggests moderate, rather than exceptionally high, market participation. From a technical perspective, the upper 70s have acted as a resistance level, as seen by the price drop from 77.0% on April 17. Conversely, the low-40% range served as a temporary support level during the recent period of volatility. Overall, the market sentiment appears bullish. The recovery from the recent volatility and the sustained position near the upper end of its historical range indicate that traders are increasingly confident the market will resolve to "YES".
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $5.10
📉 April 26, 2026: 65.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 20.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.90
📈 April 23, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 28.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 20, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 28.0% to 13.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.30
📈 April 22, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 44.0% to 54.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above $4.50
📈 April 19, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 26.0% to 49.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the average regular gas price for Florida is strictly greater than $4.50 by December 31, 2026, as reported by AAA. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on March 17, 2026, and will close either when the outcome occurs or by December 31, 2026, at 9:55 AM EST, with payouts projected one hour after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.30 | $0.66 | $0.35 | 65% |
| Above $4.50 | $0.57 | $0.49 | 47% |
| Above $4.70 | $0.37 | $0.67 | 37% |
| Above $4.90 | $0.40 | $0.70 | 26% |
| Above $5.10 | $0.31 | $0.79 | 20% |
| Above $5.30 | $0.17 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Above $5.50 | $0.24 | $0.86 | 13% |
| Above $5.70 | $0.20 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Above $5.90 | $0.11 | $0.92 | 9% |
Market Discussion
Traders are divided on the highest gas price Florida will see this year, with probabilities suggesting a majority expect prices to rise above $4.30, but opinions are split closer to 50/50 for exceeding $4.50. A key argument for prices staying lower ("No") cites an "imminent peace deal" that is expected to cause a crash in prices. While no explicit arguments for higher prices ("Yes") are detailed, the probability for prices going above $4.70 has recently seen an increase, indicating some bullish sentiment despite the sparse discussion.
5. What are the U.S. crude oil production forecasts for 2026?
| EIA U.S. Crude Production Outlook | Near 2025 record levels through Q1 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Wood Mackenzie U.S. Tight Oil Outlook | Shrinking output in 2026 [^] |
| Permian Basin Breakeven Costs | Not available in provided sources [^] |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts stable crude oil production through Q1 2026. This outlook, detailed in the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), projects that near-term U.S. crude oil production, primarily shale oil, will maintain levels close to its anticipated 2025 record highs [^]. The EIA's view suggests a sustained high volume of total crude oil production rather than significant growth, hovering around the peak reached in 2025 [^].
In contrast, Wood Mackenzie predicts a decline in U.S. tight oil output for 2026. The energy consultancy forecasts a contraction in production from U.S. shale plays, known as tight oil, in the coming year, which differs significantly from the EIA's forecast of near-record maintenance [^]. Wood Mackenzie identifies this expected decrease in U.S. Lower 48 tight oil production as a key trend to monitor in 2026 [^].
Assessing alignment with breakeven costs is challenging due to limited data. A comprehensive evaluation of how these production growth forecasts align with current breakeven costs for new drilling in the Permian Basin cannot be fully conducted, as specific data on these costs were not available in the provided sources. However, Wood Mackenzie's forecast of shrinking output could conceptually be influenced by factors such as rising breakeven costs or investor focus on returns [^]. Conversely, the EIA's projection of stable production might imply that existing cost structures and anticipated oil prices are sufficient to sustain high activity levels without driving substantial new growth [^].
6. How Will Gulf Coast Refinery Turnarounds Affect Florida Gasoline Supply?
| LyondellBasell Houston Turnaround | H2 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Valero Port Arthur Turnaround | 2026 [^] |
| Q1 2026 National Capacity Offline | Over 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) [^] |
Major Gulf Coast refineries face significant maintenance turnarounds through H1 2026. These critical suppliers to Florida's fuel terminals have several major maintenance activities scheduled. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. has a turnaround planned for its Houston, Texas, refinery in the second half of 2025 [^]. In 2026, both Valero Energy Corporation's Port Arthur, Texas refinery and Motiva Enterprises LLC's Port Arthur, Texas refinery are slated for maintenance [^]. PBF Energy also intends to conduct turnaround work at most of its refineries, including its Chalmette, Louisiana facility, during 2026 [^]. Additionally, ExxonMobil has two turnarounds scheduled for its Beaumont, Texas refinery in Spring and year-end 2026 [^].
No Gulf Coast gasoline production capacity expansions are identified for this period. The widespread maintenance activities are expected to temporarily reduce total regional gasoline production capacity. The first half of 2026 is projected to be a particularly busy period for U.S. refiners as they complete previously deferred maintenance [^]. Nationally, turnaround and maintenance work could take an average of more than 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude distillation capacity offline across the U.S. in the first quarter of 2026 [^]. Given PADD 3's substantial contribution to overall U.S. refining output, these scheduled turnarounds will likely lead to a temporary reduction in Gulf Coast gasoline production capacity, potentially impacting supply to markets such as Florida.
7. How Does Florida's FDOT Forecast Vehicle Miles Traveled?
| Total Florida Visitors | 143.3 million in 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| VMT Forecasting Responsibility | FDOT's Systems Forecasting & Trends Office [^] |
| Specific 2025/2026 VMT Data | Not directly available as simple numerical totals [^] |
The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) meticulously forecasts VMT, considering population growth and tourism recovery. FDOT integrates population growth and the pace of tourism recovery into its comprehensive transportation planning and forecasting, specifically for Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) projections. The development of these projections falls under the purview of key entities such as FDOT's Systems Forecasting & Trends Office and the FL Transportation Forecasting Resource Hub, which account for factors like economic activity and future transportation demands [^].
Florida's tourism rebound significantly impacts VMT, but explicit projections are integrated. The state has experienced a robust tourism recovery, welcoming 143.3 million visitors in 2025, which is a substantial contributor to the overall VMT on Florida's roadways [^]. While FDOT regularly publishes historical data on Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (DVMT) [^], explicit numerical projections for total annual VMT specifically for 2025 and 2026, which fully factor in these growth trends, are typically embedded within detailed, long-range transportation plans rather than being released as isolated figures [^].
8. What Do Managed Money RBOB Gasoline Positions Indicate for Prices?
| Current Net Long Position | 40,119 contracts (as of May 14, 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| Historical Peak Net Long | ~75,000 contracts (mid-2022) [^] |
| Historical Trough Net Short | ~-15,000 to -20,000 contracts (early 2023) [^] |
Current RBOB Managed Money position indicates moderate bullish sentiment. As of the week ending May 14, 2024, the 'Managed Money' category in RBOB Gasoline futures reported a net long position of approximately 40,119 contracts [^]. This positioning indicates a moderate bullish sentiment among speculative participants, which typically includes hedge funds and other institutional money managers, as reflected in the CFTC's Commitments of Traders (COT) reports [^].
Extreme 'Managed Money' positioning often correlates with significant price shifts. Over the past 24 months, historical peaks and troughs in this positioning have frequently preceded major RBOB gasoline price moves. For instance, a historical peak in net long positioning around mid-2022, reaching approximately 75,000 contracts [^], preceded a substantial decline in futures prices from highs near $4.30-$4.50 per gallon [^]. Conversely, a trough in 'Managed Money' sentiment around early 2023, where the category held a net short position of about -15,000 to -20,000 contracts [^], was followed by a rally in futures prices from lows around $2.20-$2.40 per gallon [^].
Current speculative bias is bullish, but not extremely overextended. The present net long position of 40,119 contracts suggests a bullish bias among 'Managed Money' traders, but the market is not as speculatively overextended as it was during the peak long periods of mid-2022. This mid-range positioning indicates that speculative fervor is less pronounced than at the historical highs that preceded significant downturns, yet it also reflects an absence of the extreme bearishness seen prior to major price rallies [^].
9. What is the DOE's SPR Refill Strategy and Price Target?
| Refill Price Target | At or below $79 per barrel (1, 2, 3) [^] |
|---|---|
| Refill Timeline | Multi-year strategy (1, 2, 3) [^] |
| SPR Release Triggers | Geopolitical shocks, supply disruptions, high prices (4, 5, 8) [^] |
The Department of Energy targets specific prices for Strategic Petroleum Reserve refills. The Department of Energy (DOE) has set a price target for refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), aiming to acquire crude oil when prices are at or below $79 per barrel [^]. This objective aligns with a broader strategy to purchase oil at or below the average 2022 sale price of $95 per barrel [^]. The refill process is envisioned as a multi-year effort, with initial contracts already securing millions of barrels at favorable prices, such as $72.60 per barrel [^].
However, this refill strategy potentially conflicts with emergency SPR releases. Such releases are typically necessitated by geopolitical shocks, significant supply disruptions, or national emergencies that drive oil prices higher [^]. These scenarios, such as responding to an Iran war oil shock or stabilizing global energy markets, would involve selling crude oil at market prices likely exceeding the DOE's $79 per barrel refill target [^]. This inherent contradiction means that the market conditions triggering SPR releases (high prices) directly oppose the favorable conditions for refilling (low prices), potentially pausing refill efforts during periods of market volatility.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: December 31, 2026
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-4.10: YES (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-3.90: YES (Mar 22, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-3.70: YES (Mar 11, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-3.50: YES (Mar 11, 2026)
- KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-3.20: YES (Mar 06, 2026)
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