Fed decision in Jun 2026?

Strike Date: June 17, 2026 Expiration: June 17, 2026 Updated: March 9, 2026 Economics Fed

Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the Fed to maintain rates in June 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

Feb 2026 NFP miss and falling job openings signal labor cooling.
Core PCE below target, but energy volatility raises near-term inflation risk.
Warsh's dovish policy bias creates a shift toward future rate cuts.
Escalating geopolitical tensions increase domestic risk, hindering rate cuts.
Fed decisions hinge on consistent inflation alignment to 2% and labor health.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Cut >25bps	15.0%	11.6%	Model incorporates official data indicating significant economic deceleration and disinflation.
Cut 25bps	35.0%	28.0%	Model reflects official Fed communications and labor data favoring a moderate easing cycle.
Fed maintains rate	57.0%	56.5%	Model heavily weighs official Fed communications, inflation data, and labor market resilience.
Hike 25bps	6.0%	2.6%	Model considers persistent inflation pressures and robust economic indicators from official releases.
Hike >25bps	2.0%	1.3%	Model integrates strong evidence of significant inflation acceleration and an overheating economy.

Current Context

Markets anticipate March stability, eye June for potential changes. Discussions surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments are active, with a particular focus on the June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ^{[^]}. As of early March 2026, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates at the upcoming March 17-18, 2026, FOMC meeting, with a 99% probability of no change ^{[^]}. However, attention is already shifting to potential actions later in the year, with prediction markets showing a 56% chance of no change at the June meeting, but a 30% chance of a 25 basis point decrease ^{[^]}. A significant development impacting the long-term outlook is President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell's term expires on May 15, 2026; Warsh is perceived as being more open to interest rate cuts ^{[^]}. Discussions also highlight ongoing geopolitical developments, such as the Iran conflict, and their potential impact on energy prices and, consequently, inflation, which the FOMC is closely monitoring ^{[^]}.

Key data points and expert views drive Fed expectations. The Federal Reserve's decisions are heavily data-dependent, with key indicators under scrutiny including inflation data, particularly the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, for which the consensus for month-over-month is 0.4% ^{[^]}. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year is forecast to increase from 2.4% to 2.5% ^{[^]}. Employment reports, encompassing nonfarm payrolls, wage growth (average hourly earnings), and the unemployment rate (reported at 4.4% in December 2025), are also closely watched, alongside US GDP growth, which some experts project to expand around 2.5% in 2026 ^{[^]}. The effects of existing and potential new tariff regimes on inflation and economic growth are additionally being monitored ^{[^]}. Expert opinions show a notable divergence regarding the Fed's path in 2026: Goldman Sachs anticipates two 25-basis-point rate cuts in June and September, projecting the fed funds rate to end the year at 3-3.25% ^{[^]}. In contrast, J.P. Morgan revised its forecast in January 2026, now expecting the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% throughout 2026, with a potential rate hike in the third quarter of 2027 ^{[^]}. Market expectations, reflected by CME FedWatch and other prediction markets, generally lean towards one to two 25 basis point cuts in 2026, with the target rate falling to about 3.25%-3.4% by year-end ^{[^]}. The Fed's own December 2025 "dot plot" signaled only one rate cut for 2026, while Bankrate projects three rate cuts totaling 0.75 percentage point in 2026 ^{[^]}.

Upcoming events and key concerns influence future policy. Significant upcoming events include the FOMC meetings in 2026, with the June 16-17 meeting being highly anticipated as it will include an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and a press conference, providing crucial insights into the Fed's outlook ^{[^]}. Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair expires on May 15, 2026, making the Senate confirmation process for his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, a critical event to watch ^{[^]}. Key economic data releases, such as upcoming CPI and jobs reports between March and June, will also be instrumental in shaping expectations ^{[^]}. Common questions and concerns center on when the first rate cut will occur in 2026 and how many rate cuts can be expected, with estimates varying from one to three 25-basis-point cuts, or even no cuts at all ^{[^]}. Debates persist on whether inflation will remain "sticky" above the 2% target, the true health of the labor market, and how a new Fed Chair might impact monetary policy ^{[^]}. The risks of a recession and the impact of Fed policy on everyday consumers, including mortgage rates, car loans, and overall affordability, are also frequently discussed ^{[^]}.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

This prediction market has exhibited a sideways, range-bound trend for the majority of its existence, with the probability of a "YES" outcome oscillating between 1.0% and 23.0%. The current price of 10.0% is identical to its starting price, reinforcing the lack of a sustained directional bias. This suggests the market has not developed a firm consensus, instead reacting to intermittent news and data. Key technical levels have been established, with clear resistance near the $0.23 mark, which has capped previous rallies, and a support floor around $0.01, where buying interest emerged during periods of extreme pessimism. The price action is currently situated in the middle of this established range, indicating a state of equilibrium and uncertainty among traders.

The most notable activity occurred on February 21 and 22, 2026, when the price experienced extreme volatility, dropping from 12.0% to 1.0% before immediately spiking back to 11.0% the next day. This sharp whipsaw action does not appear to be driven by general market expectations, which have been stable regarding the March meeting. Instead, this type of volatility is characteristic of a market reacting to a sudden, impactful news event with unclear long-term implications. The provided context points to the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair as a significant development. This two-day price swing likely reflects the market's initial, perhaps over-reactive, pricing of this news, followed by a rapid reassessment as traders digested the potential policy shifts under new leadership.

Overall, the chart reflects a market sentiment of low but persistent probability for this outcome. The total traded volume of 51,213 contracts indicates moderate engagement, but the pattern suggests that activity is likely concentrated around specific events, like the volatility seen in late February, rather than consistent daily trading. This pattern of low-volume sideways movement punctuated by high-volume reactions to news suggests a market with low conviction, operating in a "wait-and-see" mode. Traders are acknowledging a small chance of a "YES" result but are waiting for clearer signals from incoming economic data or more clarity on the future leadership and policy direction of the Federal Reserve before committing to a firm trend.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Fed maintains rate

📉 March 09, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Price decreased from 74.0% to 56.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point drop in the "Fed maintains rate" outcome for the "Fed decision in Jun 2026?" prediction market on March 9, 2026, was the release of weaker-than-anticipated U.S ^{[^]}. labor market data ^{[^]}. On this date, reports indicated that the U.S ^{[^]}. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a significant and unexpected weakening of the labor market ^{[^]}. This data likely increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate cuts by June to stimulate the economy, thereby decreasing the probability of rates remaining unchanged ^{[^]}. While rising oil prices due to intensifying Middle East tensions also caused inflationary concerns on March 9, presenting the Fed with a policy dilemma, the immediate and direct impact of the poor jobs report pushed market sentiment away from a "no change" scenario ^{[^]}. Social media activity from influential figures such as Donald Trump or Elon Musk around this specific date primarily involved reiterations of past economic narratives or general calls for rate cuts, appearing to be mostly noise rather than the primary catalyst for this particular market movement ^{[^]}. In conclusion, traditional news and announcements, specifically the adverse labor market report, was the primary driver of this price movement ^{[^]}.

📈 March 08, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 74.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 17.0 percentage point spike in the "Fed maintains rate" outcome for June 2026 on March 8, 2026, was likely the significant increase in gas prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions ^{[^]}. Gas prices jumped 19% following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, intensifying inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to maintain current interest rates to combat rising costs ^{[^]}. This market movement also coincided with persistent inflation concerns and a hawkish shift from the January FOMC minutes, which indicated that rate increases could be appropriate if inflation persisted ^{[^]}. Social media activity was not identified as the primary driver of this price movement ^{[^]}.

📈 March 07, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 41.0% to 58.0%

What happened: The 17.0 percentage point spike in the "Fed maintains rate" outcome for the June 2026 decision on March 7, 2026, was primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and their inflationary implications, significantly amplified by social media activity ^{[^]}. On March 7, U.S ^{[^]}. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, threatening a "very hard" attack on Iran, following a prior U.S ^{[^]}. sinking of an Iranian warship ^{[^]}. This rapidly escalated concerns about the Middle East conflict, leading to a "super spike in oil prices" and warnings from Goldman Sachs that persistent higher oil prices could push inflation from 2.4% to 3% by year-end ^{[^]}. This social media post appeared to coincide with the price move, directly influencing expectations that the Federal Reserve would be forced to maintain current interest rates to combat rising inflation, despite a simultaneously weak jobs report ^{[^]}. Social media was the primary driver ^{[^]}.

📉 March 06, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 58.0% to 44.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point drop in the "Fed maintains rate" outcome for the "Fed decision in Jun 2026?" prediction market on March 6, 2026, was the release of a significantly weaker-than-expected US Employment Situation Report for February ^{[^]}. The report showed a loss of 92,000 non-farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4%, leading to "stagflationary winds" and a heightened expectation of future rate cuts to stimulate the deteriorating labor market ^{[^]}. This sharp deterioration in employment data likely increased the market's perceived probability of a rate cut by June, thereby reducing the likelihood of the Fed maintaining rates ^{[^]}. Social media activity from key figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump on March 6, 2026, did not directly address the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or the jobs report, making it irrelevant to this particular price movement ^{[^]}.

Outcome: Cut 25bps

📉 March 03, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 47.0% to 37.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop in the "Cut 25bps" outcome for the "Fed decision in Jun 2026?" market on March 03, 2026, was the increased expectation of persistent inflation, significantly influenced by President Trump's Truth Social post on February 21, 2026 ^{[^]}. In this post, President Trump announced an increase in worldwide tariffs to 15%, directly contributing to the "tariff related cost pass through to the consumer" noted in the Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on March 03, 2026, which indicated potential inflation acceleration and reduced the likelihood of a June rate cut ^{[^]}. This was further reinforced by New York Fed President John C ^{[^]}. Williams's cautious remarks on March 03, emphasizing solid economic footing and persistent above-target inflation, suggesting a patient approach to monetary policy ^{[^]}. Therefore, social media was a contributing accelerant, as President Trump's post provided an early and direct signal of policy changes that would impact inflation expectations and subsequently the Fed's rate-cut outlook ^{[^]}.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content, "Fed decision in June? Odds & Predictions 2026", is a title and does not contain the specific contract rules needed to summarize YES/NO triggers, key dates, or special settlement conditions. To provide a summary, the full contract rules section from the Kalshi market page would be required.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Implied probability
Fed maintains rate	$0.57	$0.44	57%
Cut 25bps	$0.35	$0.70	35%
Cut >25bps	$0.15	$0.88	15%
Hike 25bps	$0.06	$1.00	6%
Hike >25bps	$0.02	$0.99	2%

Market Discussion

Debates surrounding the Federal Reserve's decision in June 2026 primarily revolve around balancing inflation control with employment goals amidst an uncertain economic outlook ^{[^]}. Many experts and some Fed officials anticipate further rate reductions, arguing that inflation is moving closer to the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of fragility, warranting less restrictive policy to support employment ^{[^]}. Conversely, others are more cautious, highlighting that inflation remains "somewhat elevated" and wage growth is strong, suggesting the Fed might hold rates steady for longer or even consider hikes if inflationary pressures persist ^{[^]}. Prediction markets, as of early 2026, indicate a significant probability of "No change" in June 2026, but also a notable chance of a 25-basis-point decrease, reflecting the prevailing uncertainty ^{[^]}.

5. What Do 2026 Economic Forecasts Signal for Fed Policy?

Core PCE Inflation Q4 2026	2.2% ^{[^]}
June 2026 Fed Rate Change	59% probability of no change ^{[^]}
CBO Core PCE Inflation 2026	2.7% ^{[^]}

Kevin Warsh aligns with traditional Fed targets, emphasizing data dependence. While not providing specific numerical thresholds for a monetary policy pivot, his views generally align with the Federal Reserve's 2% Core PCE inflation target and the 4.0-4.2% natural unemployment rate. Warsh advocates for disciplined balance sheet management and pragmatic data dependence, favoring qualitative judgment over rigid rules to proactively prevent economic overheating.

Core PCE inflation is expected to gradually decline into 2026. Consensus forecasts indicate a slow decrease in Core PCE inflation, with Goldman Sachs projecting 2.2% for Q4 2026 ^{[^]} and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO">goldmansachs.com anticipating 2.7% for the full year ^{[^]}. The unemployment rate is projected to remain near current levels, potentially rising to 4.2% after mid-2026. Globally, GDP growth is forecast at 2.9% for 2026, with the U.S. specifically at 2.8% ^{cbo.gov" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]}.

Market predictions for 2026 reflect uncertainty about future Fed policy. Prediction markets for June 2026 assign a 59% probability to no Fed rate change, highlighting prevailing uncertainty regarding how economic data will influence policy decisions ^{goldmansachs.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]}. The Federal Reserve's 'dot plot' suggests a 3.4% terminal rate by the end of 2026, implying one rate cut. This contrasts with JPMorgan's view, which anticipates no cuts due to sustained labor market resiliency ^{vanguard.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[^]}. Furthermore, market forecasts may not fully account for structural risks such as persistent supply chain bottlenecks ^{jpmorgan.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="citation-link" title="[goldmansachs.com](">[^]}.

6. How Do Senate Debates Influence June 2026 Fed Rate Cut Probabilities?

J.P. Morgan Rate Forecast	3.5–3.75% stable rates ^{[^]}
Goldman Sachs Rate Cut Expectation	50 basis points of cuts ^{[^]}
Core Inflation (May 2026)	2.8% ^{[^]}

Senate Banking Committee members held opposing views on Federal Reserve regulatory policy. Between March and May 2026, Republican members emphasized regulatory recalibration aimed at prioritizing economic stability and inflation control, referencing the Federal Reserve Insurance Reform and Modernization (FIRM) Act ^{[^]}. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supported this perspective, stating that 2023 bank failures resulted from regulators pursuing transient risks rather than focusing on core safety and soundness ^{[^]}. Conversely, Democratic members, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren, cautioned against easing safeguards like the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR), arguing such moves could destabilize banks and disproportionately impact small businesses and low-income households ^{[^]}.

Diverse economic forecasts and market uncertainty complicated the June 2026 Fed decision. The partisan debate influenced the outlook for this decision. While the Fed's December 2025 dot plot projected a median 2026 terminal rate of 3.4% after one quarter-point cut, external forecasts varied widely. J.P. Morgan expected rates to remain stable at 3.5–3.75% ^{[^]}, Goldman Sachs anticipated 50 basis points of cuts ^{[^]}, and iShares posited a gradual descent to 3% later in 2026 ^{[^]}. The prediction market showed significant uncertainty, with a 48% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, influenced by mixed economic signals such as falling core inflation (2.8% in May) contrasted with rising wage growth (4.5% annualized in Q2) ^{[^]}. The impending appointment of a new Fed Chair in May 2026 also added to policy uncertainty, with investors potentially pushing for cuts before the new leader's influence fully materialized ^{[^]}.

7. How Do Q1/Q2 2026 Labor Trends Influence Fed Policy?

Continuing Jobless Claims	1.868 million by mid-February 2026
JOLTS Ratio	0.87 in early 2026
Core PCE Inflation	2.6%

The U.S. labor market shows mixed cooling signals in early 2026. Continuing jobless claims reached 1.868 million by mid-February and are projected to increase to 1.95 million by the end of Q1. Concurrently, the Job Openings-to-Unemployed ratio (JOLTS) has dropped to 0.87, signifying more unemployed workers than available jobs, a level not observed since 2017. Despite these indicators, the Sahm Rule, which signals recessions with a significant rise in unemployment, has not yet been triggered, and the Federal Reserve noted "signs of stabilization" in the unemployment rate in January.

The Federal Reserve faces a challenging policy dilemma. While deteriorating labor market data, including increased layoff pressures and reduced job openings, would typically advocate for easing monetary policy, persistent Core PCE inflation at 2.6% compels the Fed to maintain restrictive rates of 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed's current "wait-and-see" approach is largely dictated by its dual mandate, balancing labor market conditions against price stability.

Future policy hinges on specific labor market deterioration thresholds. Forward guidance indicates that if the JOLTS ratio falls below 0.8 AND the Sahm Rule triggers, specifically an unemployment climb of 0.5%, rate cuts may become unavoidable, even if inflation remains elevated. Markets are currently pricing in a 35% chance of a rate cut by June 2026, an increase from 20% in late 2025, reflecting growing uncertainty and the potential for a shift in Fed priorities, especially with a new Fed chair set to take office in May 2026.

8. Will Stagflation Risks Force the Fed to Abandon 2026 Rate Cuts?

Projected Brent Price Q2/Q3 2026	$53–$67/bbl ^{[^]}
Geopolitical Risk Crude Premium	$4–$10/barrel [learnings 8] ^{[^]}
Baseline Fed Rate Cut Probability	80% (via Fed members' dot plots) ^{[^]}

Geopolitical tensions currently inflate Brent crude prices and signal stagflationary risks. The ongoing Iran conflict and potential new trade tariffs are currently adding a premium of $4–$10 per barrel to crude valuations [learnings 8]. While some economists suggest that stagflation may be temporary due to demand destruction, an immediate cost-push squeeze is already evident through observed supply chain bottlenecks. Brent crude forward curves for Q2 and Q3 2026 are presently in contango, reflecting a structural oversupply in the market. Major institutions project average prices for Brent crude at $53–$67 per barrel for this period, with specific forecasts from the EIA at $58 per barrel and JPMorgan at $60 per barrel for 2026 ^{[^]}.

The FBIX serves as a critical indicator for escalating stagflationary threats. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBIX) is a key measure for monitoring supply chain stress, demonstrating a significant correlation where a 10% surge in the FBIX corresponds to an 8% increase in Brent crude price volatility. A sustained FBIX reading above 140 points, coupled with concurrent spikes in energy prices, would strongly signal amplified stagflationary pressures.

A June 2026 rate cut by the Federal Reserve faces specific dependencies. The Federal Reserve's anticipated June 2026 rate cut is considered highly probable, with an 80% likelihood indicated by Fed members’ dot plots, provided that Brent futures prices remain below $60 per barrel and the contango market structure is maintained. However, this policy would be jeopardized if supply shocks, stemming from geopolitical conflicts, lead to an inversion of forward curves (backwardation) or if Brent implied volatility spikes above 25%, potentially forcing the Fed to abandon its rate cut plans.

9. What Factors Influence the June 2026 FOMC Rate Cut?

June 2026 Rate Cut Probability (FedWatch)	48-52% (25bps cut) ^{[^]}
June Rate Cut Probability (General Market)	52.6% ^{[^]}
Dec 2025 Dot Plot (2026 Forecast)	One rate cut, targeting ~3.4% ^{[^]}

A June 2026 rate cut is highly probable, supported by forecasts. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is highly likely to implement a rate cut by June 2026. Prediction markets assign a 48-52% probability ^{[^]} and 52.6% ^{[^]} for a 25-basis-point reduction by June 17, with another assessment indicating a 55-60% probability ^{[^]}. This expectation aligns with the December 2025 "dot plot," which forecasted a median of one rate cut in 2026, aiming for approximately 3.4% by year-end ^{[^]}. The federal funds rate started 2026 between 3.50% and 3.75%, following 175 basis points of easing since the 2024 peak ^{[^]}.

FOMC's composition favors a dovish majority, but Chair Warsh adds complexity. The FOMC's 2026 voting bloc is expected to lean centrist to dovish, influenced by rotating regional Fed presidents including Anna Paulson (Philadelphia), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), Beth Hammack (Cleveland), and Lorie Logan (Dallas) ^{[^]}. Beth Hammack maintains a consistent dovish stance, and Lorie Logan or Hammack are identified as the likely median voters, with priorities like manufacturing contraction data supporting dovish narratives ^{[^]}. These members, along with Paulson, form the anchor of an anticipated dovish/centrist majority of at least seven votes ^{[^]}. While Kashkari has shifted towards centrism, there is a risk he could revert to a more hawkish stance on inflation ^{[^]}. A leadership transition in May 2026 potentially installs Jerome Warsh as Chair, who publicly prefers neutral policy over aggressive easing ^{[^]}. Chair Warsh would inherit this pre-existing dovish/centrist majority, but he faces challenges in maintaining its cohesion, especially given data-dependence ^{[^]}. A cut is anticipated unless significant shifts in May labor data (e.g., unemployment exceeding 4.2%) or a Q2 inflation rebound activate centrist hawkishness, potentially delaying action ^{[^]}.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts for Fed Policy in Jun 2026

The prediction market for the Federal Reserve's decision in June 2026 is primarily driven by incoming economic data and the Fed's reaction to these trends. After three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, the Fed's benchmark interest rate was held steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026. The market's outcome will depend on whether inflation trends align with the Fed's 2% target and the overall health of the labor market.

A "YES" outcome, indicating the Fed maintains or potentially raises rates, would be supported by persistent inflation, particularly if Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) consistently exceed expectations or fail to show a clear path to the 2% target [^] . A robust labor market, characterized by strong job growth and declining unemployment rates, would also signal a healthy economy that does not require rate cuts ^{[^]}. Strong economic growth, reflected in higher-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials could further bolster this scenario ^{[^]}.

Conversely, a "NO" outcome, implying the Fed cuts rates, would be favored by cooling inflation data that shows a faster-than-expected decline towards the 2% target [^] . A weakening labor market, evidenced by significant increases in the unemployment rate or weaker non-farm payroll reports, would prompt the Fed to stimulate employment ^{[^]}. Economic slowdowns or heightened recession concerns, indicated by weaker GDP reports, along with dovish statements from Fed officials or unexpected financial instability, would also increase the likelihood of rate cuts ^{[^]}.

Key Dates & Catalysts

Strike Date: June 17, 2026
Expiration: September 16, 2026
Closes: June 17, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

Trigger: The prediction market for the Federal Reserve's decision in June 2026 is primarily driven by incoming economic data and the Fed's reaction to these trends.
Trigger: After three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, the Fed's benchmark interest rate was held steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026.
Trigger: The market's outcome will depend on whether inflation trends align with the Fed's 2% target and the overall health of the labor market.
Trigger: A "YES" outcome, indicating the Fed maintains or potentially raises rates, would be supported by persistent inflation, particularly if Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) consistently exceed expectations or fail to show a clear path to the 2% target [^] .

13. Related News

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Last updated: March 9, 2026, 12:32 UTC

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