Gold price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Significant COMEX Gold long liquidation levels exist below current prices.
- Breaching these support levels could trigger cascading sales and downward pressure.
- Specific COMEX Gold order flow and options data are unavailable.
- No new central bank gold reserve policy updates have been found.
- The market experienced recent significant upward implied probability spikes.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| above $4824 | 43.0% | 39.0% | Market higher by 4.0pp |
| above $4804 | 66.0% | 62.2% | Market higher by 3.8pp |
| above $4834 | 38.0% | 34.2% | Market higher by 3.8pp |
| above $4794 | 72.0% | 68.6% | Market higher by 3.4pp |
| above $4814 | 55.0% | 50.9% | Market higher by 4.1pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: above $4604
📈 April 16, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 89.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: above $4624
📈 April 15, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 88.0% to 99.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if the 1-minute gold candlestick's close price on April 16, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 4814 USD/t.oz; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 16, 2026, with a projected payout at 6:00 PM EDT. Settlement is verified from Pyth - Gold (Metal.XAU/USD) and rounded to two decimal places, with specific rules for interpreting the 1-minute candlestick close time and using the most recently available data if official data is missing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| above $4604 | $1.00 | $0.04 | 99% |
| above $4614 | $1.00 | $0.04 | 99% |
| above $4624 | $1.00 | $0.15 | 99% |
| above $4634 | $1.00 | $0.20 | 99% |
| above $4654 | $1.00 | $0.22 | 99% |
| above $4664 | $1.00 | $0.20 | 99% |
| above $4674 | $1.00 | $0.24 | 99% |
| above $4684 | $1.00 | $0.22 | 99% |
| above $4694 | $1.00 | $0.08 | 99% |
| above $4704 | $1.00 | $0.05 | 99% |
| above $4594 | $1.00 | $0.04 | 98% |
| above $4644 | $1.00 | $0.21 | 98% |
| above $4734 | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| above $4744 | $0.97 | $0.17 | 97% |
| above $4714 | $0.99 | $0.04 | 96% |
| above $4724 | $0.99 | $0.06 | 95% |
| above $4754 | $0.98 | $0.12 | 95% |
| above $4764 | $0.95 | $0.10 | 79% |
| above $4774 | $0.86 | $0.19 | 76% |
| above $4794 | $0.77 | $0.24 | 72% |
| above $4784 | $0.83 | $0.26 | 66% |
| above $4804 | $0.67 | $0.43 | 66% |
| above $4814 | $0.55 | $0.46 | 55% |
| above $4824 | $0.44 | $0.57 | 43% |
| above $4834 | $0.34 | $0.70 | 38% |
| above $4844 | $0.20 | $0.82 | 19% |
| above $4854 | $0.19 | $0.89 | 19% |
| above $4894 | $0.20 | $0.98 | 19% |
| above $4874 | $0.21 | $0.95 | 17% |
| above $4884 | $0.11 | $0.96 | 15% |
| above $4864 | $0.09 | $0.93 | 11% |
| above $4904 | $0.11 | $0.98 | 10% |
| above $4914 | $0.09 | $0.98 | 10% |
| above $4924 | $0.48 | $1.00 | 9% |
| above $4944 | $0.41 | $1.00 | 5% |
| above $4934 | $0.41 | $1.00 | 4% |
| above $4964 | $0.42 | $1.00 | 4% |
| above $4984 | $0.20 | $1.00 | 3% |
| above $4954 | $0.46 | $1.00 | 2% |
| above $4974 | $0.44 | $1.00 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Can Future COMEX Gold Institutional Order Flow Imbalance Be Predicted?
| Net Institutional Order Flow Imbalance | Not available for April 16, 2026 (future market activity) [^] |
|---|---|
| Block Trade Data Availability | Detailed directional flow for specific intraday periods is not publicly accessible [^] |
| Nature of Block Trades | Privately negotiated transactions reported to the exchange [^] |
6. Can Specific April 2026 COMEX Gold Options Data Be Directly Extracted?
| Dealer Gamma Exposure | Not directly extractable from general portals [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Open Interest Concentration | Requires interactive exploration on platforms like QuikStrike [^], [^] and OptionCharts [^] |
| Specific Data Availability | Granular April 2026 COMEX Gold OGO data not directly provided [^] |
7. Have Central Banks Issued Gold Reserve Policy Updates Post-April 2026?
| US Treasury Latest Report | March 27, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Federal Reserve Latest Statement | March 18, 2026 [^] |
| People's Bank of China Latest Info | November 2025 [^] |
8. Where are key COMEX Gold futures long liquidation levels?
| Crucial Support Liquidation | $2150-$2130 (Source: [^]) |
|---|---|
| Intense Selling Zone | $2100-$2090 (Source: [^]) |
| Major Cluster Liquidation | $2080-$2060 (Source: [^]) |
9. How is COMEX Gold Futures Price Settled on April 16, 2026?
| Settlement Source | Official daily settlement price for COMEX Gold Futures (GC) by CME Group (CME Group [^]) |
|---|---|
| Resolution Time | 5:00 PM EDT on April 16, 2026 (CME Group [^]) |
| Non-standard Procedures | None anticipated; standard trading day expected (Based on market schedules [^]) |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 23, 2026
- Closes: April 16, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5022: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5012: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5002: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T4992: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T4982: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
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