Gold price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Significant COMEX Gold long liquidation levels exist below current prices.
- Breaching these support levels could trigger cascading sales and downward pressure.
- Specific COMEX Gold order flow and options data are unavailable.
- No new central bank gold reserve policy updates have been found.
- The market experienced recent significant upward implied probability spikes.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: above $4604
📈 April 16, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 89.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: above $4624
📈 April 15, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 88.0% to 99.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if the 1-minute gold candlestick's close price on April 16, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 4814 USD/t.oz; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 16, 2026, with a projected payout at 6:00 PM EDT. Settlement is verified from Pyth - Gold (Metal.XAU/USD) and rounded to two decimal places, with specific rules for interpreting the 1-minute candlestick close time and using the most recently available data if official data is missing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Can Future COMEX Gold Institutional Order Flow Imbalance Be Predicted?
| Net Institutional Order Flow Imbalance | Not available for April 16, 2026 (future market activity) [^] |
|---|---|
| Block Trade Data Availability | Detailed directional flow for specific intraday periods is not publicly accessible [^] |
| Nature of Block Trades | Privately negotiated transactions reported to the exchange [^] |
6. Can Specific April 2026 COMEX Gold Options Data Be Directly Extracted?
| Dealer Gamma Exposure | Not directly extractable from general portals [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Open Interest Concentration | Requires interactive exploration on platforms like QuikStrike [^], [^] and OptionCharts [^] |
| Specific Data Availability | Granular April 2026 COMEX Gold OGO data not directly provided [^] |
7. Have Central Banks Issued Gold Reserve Policy Updates Post-April 2026?
| US Treasury Latest Report | March 27, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Federal Reserve Latest Statement | March 18, 2026 [^] |
| People's Bank of China Latest Info | November 2025 [^] |
8. Where are key COMEX Gold futures long liquidation levels?
| Crucial Support Liquidation | $2150-$2130 (Source: [^]) |
|---|---|
| Intense Selling Zone | $2100-$2090 (Source: [^]) |
| Major Cluster Liquidation | $2080-$2060 (Source: [^]) |
9. How is COMEX Gold Futures Price Settled on April 16, 2026?
| Settlement Source | Official daily settlement price for COMEX Gold Futures (GC) by CME Group (CME Group [^]) |
|---|---|
| Resolution Time | 5:00 PM EDT on April 16, 2026 (CME Group [^]) |
| Non-standard Procedures | None anticipated; standard trading day expected (Based on market schedules [^]) |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 23, 2026
- Closes: April 16, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5022: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5012: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5002: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T4992: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T4982: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.