Nickel close price on Apr 30, 2026?

The incoming Prabowo Subianto administration will continue Indonesia's nickel downstreaming policy. Set to take office in October 2024, the new government is expected to maintain the ban on raw nickel ore exports, which has been in effect since 2020. This policy aims to encourage domestic processing of nickel into higher-value products such as battery chemicals and stainless steel ingredients ^{[^]}. The overarching strategy seeks to standardize mineral resource taxation and enhance domestic value addition ^{[^]}.

New nickel royalty rates and accelerated export taxes will apply from April 26, 2025. Under these updated regulations, permit holders extracting nickel ore will face a 5% royalty rate ^{[^]}. For processed nickel products, the royalty rate will be 2% of gross sales for products with less than 70% nickel content, and 4% for those containing 70% or more ^{[^]}. These new rates will supersede previous ones, including the 2% rate applied to domestic smelter sales ^{[^]}. Additionally, the government intends to accelerate export taxes on lower value-added nickel products, further promoting domestic processing ^{[^]}.

Environmental regulations, especially for HPAL projects, will tighten significantly under the new administration. The Prabowo administration is anticipated to strengthen environmental oversight, particularly by increasing the stringency of requirements for the environmental impact analysis (AMDAL) of nickel projects ^{[^]}. This will be especially rigorous for High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) plants, indicating a heightened focus on reducing the environmental footprint of these processing facilities ^{[^]}.

Based on their H1 2025 capital expenditure plans and supply agreements, major non-Chinese EV manufacturers are strategically diversifying their battery chemistry mixes for 2026. Tesla aims for LFP batteries to constitute 50% of its global vehicle production by mid-2025, primarily for standard range models, with nickel-based chemistries (NCM/NCA) continuing for long-range and performance variants ^{[^]}. This target is supported by a new LFP battery factory expected to significantly ramp up production, helping achieve 50% LFP integration by early 2026 across its standard range vehicle lineup ^{[^]}. Volkswagen Group's H1 2025 investment strategy indicates a significant allocation towards establishing LFP battery production, targeting LFP cells for approximately 60% of its entry-level and mid-range EV models by 2026 ^{[^]}. The company's goal for LFP to cover the volume segment, with high-performance and long-range vehicles utilizing nickel-based batteries, translates to a projected 60% LFP, 40% NCM/NCA mix for its entire EV fleet by the end of 2026, further bolstered by a long-term supply agreement for LFP cells ^{[^]}.

General Motors and Ford also integrate LFP for cost-effective, standard-range EVs. General Motors (GM) plans to integrate LFP batteries into several upcoming EV models, starting in late 2025, with an anticipated mix of 30-40% LFP across its total EV portfolio by 2026 to reduce costs ^{[^]}. New investments in battery manufacturing facilities announced in H1 2025 are geared towards supporting this diversified chemistry, with LFP expected to make up approximately 35% of GM's battery supply by 2026, primarily for more affordable models ^{[^]}. Ford's H1 2025 capital expenditure plans detail substantial investments in battery production facilities, anticipating LFP batteries will power around 40% of its new EV models introduced in 2026, targeting affordability and standard range ^{[^]}. Ford's strategy emphasizes flexibility, with projections for 2026 indicating LFP batteries will account for approximately 40% of their total EV battery usage, with the remaining 60% being nickel-based for higher performance and range ^{[^]}. The upcoming affordable EV pickup, set for 2026, will utilize LFP batteries, underscoring Ford's commitment to achieving a 40% LFP mix by that year for certain segments ^{[^]}.

Hyundai/Kia's 2026 battery mix data is unavailable; LFP adoption grows for affordability. Information regarding the projected 2026 production mix of nickel-based versus LFP battery chemistries for Hyundai/Kia is not available in the provided sources. However, the overall trend among the major non-Chinese EV manufacturers for 2026 indicates a strategic diversification, with LFP chemistries increasingly adopted for standard range, entry-level, and more affordable models, while nickel-based (NCM/NCA) batteries are reserved for long-range and high-performance variants.

The U.S. and UK restricted Russian metals in April 2024. In April 2024, the United States and United Kingdom imposed significant restrictions on Russian-origin aluminum, copper, and nickel. These measures specifically prohibit the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from accepting new production of these metals. Furthermore, both nations banned the import of Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel into their respective territories. These actions directly affect the trade and delivery of products from major Russian producers such as Nornickel ^{[^]}.

Future restrictions and nickel stock trends remain unconfirmed. Despite these existing restrictions, the available research does not indicate whether the U.S. or UK will issue further limitations on Nornickel's products or other Russian metals beyond those announced in April 2024 ^{[^]}. Additionally, specific data detailing the trend in Russian-origin nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses through Q1 2025 is not accessible in the provided sources, even though the LME publishes country-of-origin stock data and quarterly reports ^{[^]}.

LME cash nickel's premium over NPI is set to expand by 2025. The price premium of LME cash nickel contracts, representing Class 1 nickel, over Chinese-landed Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) is projected to widen through the end of 2025, with NPI expected to trade at an expanding discount. This trend is primarily attributed to an anticipated oversupply of high-grade NPI in 2025 ^{[^]}. While earlier analyses from late 2023 and early 2024 had suggested a potential narrowing of the NPI discount against refined nickel, the more recent outlook indicates a widening discount ^{[^]}. The spread between Class 1 and Class 2 nickel prices is fundamentally influenced by the cost of converting Class 2 materials into Class 1 ^{[^]}.

MHP oversupply will also contribute to a wider Class 2 discount. For Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), another Class 2 nickel product, the market is also expected to face sustained oversupply in 2025. This increase in intermediate product supply, particularly MHP, is driven by new project completions in Indonesia ^{[^]}. An oversupplied MHP market would generally imply weaker relative pricing compared to Class 1 nickel, contributing to a maintained or expanded discount for Class 2 materials. The persistent oversupply in both high-grade NPI and nickel intermediate products, combined with an overall projected nickel oversupply throughout 2025, suggests continued downward pressure on Class 2 nickel prices relative to Class 1 ^{[^]}. This widening discount or increased premium for LME cash nickel indicates an ongoing distinction and potential tightening in the Class 1 market relative to the Class 2 market, primarily due to the availability and conversion dynamics of Class 2 materials.

Indonesian High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) projects show varied commissioning dates impacting H1 2026 output. PT Vale Indonesia's Pomalaa HPAL nickel smelter is now targeting operations to commence in Q3 2026, a revision from earlier Q1 2026 projections ^{[^]}. As a result, significant production run-rates from Pomalaa are not expected during H1 2026. In contrast, Nickel Industries' Excelsior Nickel project aims for commissioning in Q4 2025, with a ramp-up phase scheduled throughout 2026 ^{[^]}. This facility is designed to produce 72,000 tonnes of nickel in Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) annually once fully operational, meaning H1 2026 production will be part of its initial ramp-up ^{[^]}.

No major Canadian sulphide ore projects are expected online by H1 2026. Canada Nickel’s Crawford Project, a large-scale Canadian sulphide ore venture, is not anticipated to be operational by year-end 2025. The project remains in regulatory and permitting stages ^{[^]}, with production projected to begin in 2027, as outlined in its Feasibility Study ^{[^]}. With an average annual production target of 37,000 tonnes of nickel in concentrate over a 26-year mine life, the Crawford Project will not contribute to nickel production run-rates in H1 2026 ^{[^]}.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.