Wyoming at Wichita St.
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Wichita State was heavily favored due to strong defense and recent form.
- No final score for the March 17 game is publicly available.
- The market appears based on an incorrect game date (March 31).
- No direct catalyst for Wichita State's recent price spike was identified.
- Pre-game injury reports and specific matchup data were unavailable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wichita St. | 76.0% | 70.4% | Experts favored Wichita State for a home win, citing their superior defense and recent form. |
| Wyoming | 26.0% | 29.6% | Wyoming was considered the underdog, facing a heavily favored Wichita State team. |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 March 16, 2026: 63.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 69.0%
Outcome: Wichita St.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content describes the market as "Wyoming vs Wichita St. College Basketball (M) Odds & Predictions" but does not include the contract rules. Therefore, the specific triggers for YES/NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or special settlement conditions cannot be extracted from the given text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wichita St. | $0.75 | $0.26 | 76% |
| Wyoming | $0.27 | $0.75 | 26% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets strongly favor the Wichita State Shockers to win their NIT game against Wyoming, with Polymarket traders assigning a 69% implied probability to Wichita State [^]. This sentiment is supported by $33.5K in trading volume and 538 comments debating the game on Polymarket, while Robinhood also hosts a prediction market for the matchup [^].
5. Were Wyoming vs. Wichita State injury reports released pre-game?
| Final Injury Reports | None found within two hours before tip-off (web research) [^] |
|---|---|
| Projected Starting Lineups | None identified within two hours before tip-off (web research) [^] |
| Search Timeframe | Critical two-hour window before March 17 tip-off (web research) [^] |
6. What Caused Wichita State's Prediction Market Price Spike?
| Date of Contract Spike | March 16, 2026 (Web Research Results) [^] |
|---|---|
| Magnitude of Price Spike | 63-point (Web Research Results) [^] |
| Identified Direct Catalyst | None (Web Research Results) [^] |
7. What is Wyoming's Postseason Road Underdog Betting Record?
| Specific Game Scenario Data | Not available for Wyoming's last five postseason tournament games as a road underdog of 6 points or more [^] |
|---|---|
| Straight-Up Outcomes | No records found under requested conditions [^] |
| Against-the-Spread Outcomes | Undocumented in available records for postseason road underdogs [^] |
8. Is Specific 2025-26 Wichita State vs. Wyoming Matchup Data Available?
| WSU Defensive Paint Efficiency | Specific matchup data against Wyoming not available (Web Research Results) [^] |
|---|---|
| Wyoming Offensive Rebounding % | Final month data against WSU's paint defense not found (Web Research Results) [^] |
| Wyoming Starting C PPG | Per-possession data against WSU's paint defense not found (Web Research Results) [^] |
9. Is there a head-to-head coaching record for Wyoming vs. Wichita State?
| Head-to-Head Coaching Record | Not publicly available for Sundance Wicks/Jeff Linder vs [^]. Paul Mills (Web Research Results) [^] |
|---|---|
| Common Opponent Data | Not readily available (Web Research Results) [^] |
| Scheduled Game Date | March 17, 2026 (Wyoming vs. Wichita State) [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2026
- Closes: March 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The market for a Wyoming at Wichita State basketball game on March 31, 2026, appears to be based on incorrect information, as the teams played an NIT first-round game on March 17, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Prior to this actual game, Polymarket indicated a 69% win probability for Wichita State [^] .
- Trigger: This favored position for Wichita State was largely attributed to their strong home defense and rebounding [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, Wyoming's poor road record, with an average margin of -4.8 points per game, weighed negatively on their probability [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR14MISSARK-MISS: NO (Mar 14, 2026)
- KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR14MISSARK-ARK: YES (Mar 14, 2026)
- KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR14PURUCLA-UCLA: NO (Mar 14, 2026)
- KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR14PURUCLA-PUR: YES (Mar 14, 2026)
- KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR14JOESVCU-VCU: YES (Mar 14, 2026)
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