How long will the Pro Women's Basketball season be delayed?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Union's initial revenue demands significantly exceed owners' offer.
- The WNBPA is committed to "whatever it takes" in negotiations.
- WNBA anticipates substantial revenue growth, reaching $200 million by 2024.
- Players prioritize increased revenue sharing and improved housing.
- A new Collective Bargaining Agreement is targeted for mid-February 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day or more | 5.0% | 16.5% | Model higher by 11.5pp |
| 3 days or more | 8.0% | 16.0% | Model higher by 8.0pp |
| 10 days or more | 6.0% | 15.0% | Model higher by 9.0pp |
| 5 days or more | 6.0% | 15.5% | Model higher by 9.5pp |
| 25 days or more | 14.0% | 14.0% | Model and market aligned |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the 2026 WNBA regular season is delayed by at least one calendar day from its officially scheduled start date; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The resolution will be based on information from sources such as ESPN, Fox Sports, and WNBA.com. The market opened on February 18, 2026, and will close either after the outcome occurs or by January 15, 2027, at 10:00 AM EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 days or more | $0.05 | $1.00 | 14% |
| 60 days or more | $0.06 | $1.00 | 14% |
| 3 days or more | $0.08 | $0.99 | 8% |
| 45 days or more | $0.05 | $1.00 | 7% |
| 10 days or more | $0.05 | $1.00 | 6% |
| 5 days or more | $0.06 | $0.99 | 6% |
| 1 day or more | $0.04 | $0.99 | 5% |
| 90 days or more | $0.05 | $1.00 | 4% |
| 120 days or more | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| 180 days or more | $0.05 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Are the WNBPA's Revenue Share Demands vs. Owners' Offer?
| WNBPA Initial Demand | 50% of Basketball Related Income (BRI) [^] |
|---|---|
| WNBPA Current Demand | Scaled back from 50%, precise percentage not disclosed [^] |
| WNBA Owners' Offer | Approximately 15% revenue share [^] |
5. How Would a WNBA Lockout Impact Revenue and Player Salaries?
| 2024 WNBA Revenue Projection | $200 million [^] |
|---|---|
| 2025 WNBA Revenue Projection | $250 million or more [^] |
| Estimated Per-Game Revenue Loss (2024) | ~$416,666 (during lockout) [^] |
6. What Are Key Player Demands in WNBA CBA Negotiations?
| Top Player Demands | Revenue sharing and housing [^] |
|---|---|
| Major Player Gain | Guaranteed chartered flights for all teams [^] |
| Commissioner's Goal | Swift agreement by deadline [^] |
7. How Does the Pro Women's Basketball CBA Benefit Players?
| CBA Duration | 7 years (through 2027 season) [^] |
|---|---|
| Marketing Revenue Split | 50/50 starting 2021 (if revenue targets met) [^] |
| Retired Player Healthcare | Eligible after 3+ seasons (retroactive) [^] |
8. What is the WNBA CBA Deadline for the 2026 Season?
| WNBA CBA De Facto Deadline | Mid-February 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| 2011 NBA Lockout Duration | 161 days [^] |
| 2011 NBA Season Length Impact | Reduced from 82 to 66 games [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 15, 2027
- Closes: January 15, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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