Denver at San Antonio
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Sharp money showed strong confidence in Denver to win.
- Denver was highly motivated to secure top playoff seeding.
- Seven key Denver players were officially ruled out for the game.
- Market confidence in Denver persisted despite extensive player injuries.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 21.0% | 32.8% | Denver is an underdog facing a strong opponent, especially playing on the road. |
| San Antonio | 80.0% | 67.2% | San Antonio is favored to win due to their strong overall team performance and home court. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 11, 2026: 56.0pp drop
Price decreased from 77.0% to 21.0%
Outcome: Denver
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the San Antonio Spurs win their professional basketball game against the Denver Nuggets, originally scheduled for April 12, 2026; a NO resolution occurs if San Antonio does not win, with the NBA verifying the outcome. The market opened on April 11, 2026, and closes after the game's outcome is determined, or by April 26, 2026, at 8:30 PM EDT at the latest, with projected payouts one minute after closing. Trading is prohibited for current/former league/team players, coaches, staff, league employees, owners, and their immediate family members.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | $0.80 | $0.21 | 80% |
| Denver | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Was the Denver Nuggets' Injury Report for Spurs Game?
| Nikola Jokic Status | Questionable (right hip inflammation) [^] |
|---|---|
| Jamal Murray Status | Out (right knee inflammation) [^] |
| Total Players Ruled Out | Seven players [^] |
6. What Are the Denver Nuggets Playoff Seeding Scenarios?
| Current Seeding Status | Three-way tie for 1st seed in Western Conference [^] |
|---|---|
| Best Possible Seed | 1st seed (if Denver wins and Oklahoma City loses) [^] |
| Worst Possible Seed | 3rd seed (if Denver loses and Minnesota and Oklahoma City win) [^] |
7. How Did Point Spread and Sharp Money Shift for Denver Nuggets Game?
| Opening Point Spread | Denver -7.5 (April 12, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Closing Point Spread | Denver -8.5 (April 12, 2026) [^] |
| Money on Denver | Approximately 70% [^] |
8. What is Wembanyama's Net Rating Against Nuggets?
| Wembanyama Career Points vs Nuggets | 25.2 points (in 6 games) [^] |
|---|---|
| Wembanyama Career Rebounds vs Nuggets | 14.7 rebounds (in 6 games) [^] |
| Wembanyama Career Assists vs Nuggets | 4.0 assists (in 6 games) [^] |
9. Were Denver Nuggets Key Players on Minutes Restriction April 12?
| Minutes Restriction Status | No reports of minutes restrictions for active key players [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Players Ruled Out | Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope [^] |
| Active Players' Role | Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Reggie Jackson expected significant minutes [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 27, 2026
- Closes: April 27, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNBAGAME-26APR10LACPOR-POR: YES (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR10LACPOR-LAC: NO (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR10GSWSAC-SAC: YES (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR10GSWSAC-GSW: NO (Apr 11, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR10PHXLAL-PHX: NO (Apr 11, 2026)
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