San Francisco vs Philadelphia: Total Bases
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber show recent power surges.
- Both players exhibit increased barrel rates and exit velocities.
- Their improved metrics suggest a higher likelihood of extra-base hits.
- This trend points to more total bases for Philadelphia.
- Giants reliever Erik Miller is likely unavailable for April 28.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers: 3+ | 13.0% | 32.0% | Model higher by 19.0pp |
| Trea Turner: 2+ | 46.0% | 48.8% | Model higher by 2.8pp |
| Rafael Devers: 2+ | 31.0% | 48.8% | Model higher by 17.8pp |
| Trea Turner: 3+ | 30.0% | 32.0% | Model higher by 2.0pp |
| Bryce Harper: 2+ | 0.0% | 48.8% | Bryce Harper shows a power surge over his last 50 PAs, with increased barrel rates and exit velocities. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 28, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 17.0%
Outcome: Bryce Harper: 4+
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Trea Turner: 2+ Total Bases" market, a YES resolution occurs if Trea Turner records 2 or more total bases in the San Francisco vs Philadelphia game on April 28, 2026, provided he is in the starting lineup and has at least one plate appearance; otherwise, it resolves to NO under these conditions. The market opened on April 27, 2026, for a game starting April 28, 2026, 6:40 PM EDT, and will close after the outcome or by May 1, 2026, 6:40 PM EDT. Special settlement conditions dictate that if Trea Turner is scratched, not in the starting lineup, or starts without recording a plate appearance, the market will resolve to the fair market price, and pinch-hit at-bats will not count.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner: 2+ | $0.46 | $0.57 | 46% |
| Rafael Devers: 2+ | $0.32 | $0.72 | 31% |
| Trea Turner: 3+ | $0.28 | $0.79 | 30% |
| Rafael Devers: 3+ | $0.16 | $0.85 | 13% |
| Bryce Harper: 2+ | $0.45 | $0.60 | 0% |
| Bryce Harper: 3+ | $0.29 | $0.75 | 0% |
| Bryce Harper: 4+ | $0.20 | $0.83 | 0% |
| Bryce Harper: 5+ | $0.11 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Bryce Harper: 6+ | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kyle Schwarber: 2+ | $0.46 | $0.60 | 0% |
| Kyle Schwarber: 3+ | $0.34 | $0.74 | 0% |
| Kyle Schwarber: 4+ | $0.29 | $0.83 | 0% |
| Kyle Schwarber: 5+ | $0.14 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Kyle Schwarber: 6+ | $0.09 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Kyle Schwarber: 7+ | $0.08 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Rafael Devers: 4+ | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Rafael Devers: 5+ | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Trea Turner: 4+ | $0.18 | $0.87 | 0% |
| Trea Turner: 5+ | $0.08 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Trea Turner: 6+ | $0.08 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Do Harper and Schwarber Perform Against Sinkers and Logan Webb?
| Bryce Harper Career wOBA vs Sinkers | .374 [^] |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber Career wOBA vs Sinkers | .361 [^] |
| Bryce Harper Plate Appearances vs Logan Webb | 9 (1 hit, 1 HR, 1 walk) [^] |
6. Which Giants Relievers Are Available for April 28 vs. Phillies?
| Erik Miller Status | Likely unavailable or restricted for April 28 [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Relievers Availability | Expected to be available for April 28 (Camilo Doval, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Walker) [^] |
| Harper/Schwarber BvP Stats | Not available in provided sources [^] |
7. Are Harper and Schwarber currently experiencing power surges?
| Harper Barrel Rate (Last 50 PA) | 16.0% [^] |
|---|---|
| Schwarber Barrel Rate (Last 50 PA) | 18.5% [^] |
| Harper Average Exit Velocity (Last 50 PA) | 93.2 mph [^] |
8. Who Is the Home Plate Umpire for Giants vs. Phillies 2026 Game?
| Home Plate Umpire Name | Not publicly announced (as of research date) [^] |
|---|---|
| Historical Called Strike Rate | Cannot be determined without umpire assignment [^] |
| Impact on Left-Handed Batters | Not assessable without specific umpire data [^] |
9. What is the Weather Forecast for Giants vs. Phillies on April 28, 2026?
| Game Date | April 28th, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Game Location | Oracle Park [^] |
| Detailed Weather Forecast | Not directly available from research materials [^]. |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 01, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMLBTB-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAJSANOJA8-4: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBTB-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAJSANOJA8-3: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBTB-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAJSANOJA8-2: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBTB-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAXEDWARDS9-4: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBTB-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAXEDWARDS9-3: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
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