Yes refers to: Before 2027
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- NDAA mandates significantly increase U.S. government UAP information disclosure.
- Increased whistleblower activity could reveal more classified UAP information.
- Ongoing congressional hearings demand greater transparency from defense and intelligence.
- AARO has not publicly released specific scientific data on UAP origins.
- David Grusch alleges classified programs hold non-human materials and technology.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 15% | 14.5% | New UAP data releases could compel the U.S. government to confirm alien existence. |
Current Context
The possibility of the U.S. confirming alien existence before 2027 is a subject of active search, discussion, and debate, driven by recent news and sustained governmental and public interest in Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP). As of early February 2026, former U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing a historic speech concerning UFO disclosure, potentially revealing decades of collected evidence including recovered alien materials and non-human biological evidence. This address is reportedly being moved up to July 8, 2026, coinciding with the 79th anniversary of the Roswell incident, with an adviser suggesting Trump has received authorization from major world leaders to release this information. Concurrently, Representative Tim Burchett has indicated White House assistance for requests to visit Pentagon-controlled sites believed to house unusual materials, objects, and potentially craft or bodies, fueling interest in UFO transparency. The Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) continues its scientific approach to UAPs but has not publicly confirmed extraterrestrial technology.
Public and experts demand concrete evidence, challenging skepticism in the ongoing UAP discourse. Key data points sought include verifiable physical evidence of extraterrestrial life, recovered alien technology, or non-human biological materials. There is significant interest in forensic analysis results of alleged "non-Earth-origin craft" and "non-human biological materials," alongside authenticated military eyewitness accounts from incidents like the 2004 USS Nimitz and 2015 USS Roosevelt encounters, which describe objects defying known human technology. Congressional interest targets specific data and briefings from AARO, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), and U.S. Northern Command (Northcom) regarding UAP intercepts. Expert opinions frequently cited include former Air Force intelligence officer David Grusch, who claims the U.S. government recovered crashed craft and "non-human remains" and that former President Trump was briefed on multiple extraterrestrial species. Luis Elizondo, a former U.S. Department of Defense employee, claims government awareness of alien life for decades. Conversely, skeptical voices, such as scientists Joshua Semeter and Michael Shermer, highlight the lack of physical evidence, suggesting many UAP sightings could be terrestrial phenomena or misidentification.
Upcoming deadlines and key concerns frame ongoing UAP debate, including a central focus on government transparency. The reported July 8, 2026 date for former President Trump's potential UFO disclosure speech is a significant upcoming event. Furthermore, the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes provisions requiring the Pentagon to provide Congress with briefings and data on UAP intercepts conducted by Northcom and NORAD since 2004, ensuring governmental reporting requirements within the "before 2027" timeframe. Common questions and concerns revolve around allegations of an 80-year-old government cover-up of non-human intelligent life and advanced technology, with a 2019 Gallup poll indicating 68% of Americans believe the U.S. government knows more about UFOs than it shares. The absence of publicly released, undeniable physical evidence remains a significant concern, alongside debates on national security implications, humanity's preparedness for official confirmation of alien existence, and the reliability of sources, given patterns of denial followed by eventual acknowledgment of UAP-related records.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has consistently traded in a sideways pattern, establishing a well-defined range between a support level of approximately $0.10 and a resistance level of $0.24. The price currently sits at $0.14, near the lower end of this range and only slightly above its starting price of $0.12. This lack of a sustained directional trend, despite a high total volume of 972,585 contracts, suggests that the market is in a state of equilibrium, with neither bulls nor bears having a decisive advantage. The overall price action indicates that while there is significant interest in the topic, the market's baseline assessment of a "YES" outcome remains low.
The most significant price movement was the surge to the $0.24 peak. This spike in perceived probability was almost certainly driven by the early February 2026 news reports of Donald Trump preparing a major UFO disclosure speech for July 2026. This news served as a powerful catalyst, causing a rapid increase in buying as traders reacted to a tangible, near-term event that could resolve the market. However, the market's subsequent failure to hold these gains and its retreat back to the $0.14 level indicates that the initial conviction faded. This price drop suggests that traders either grew skeptical about the speech's substance and likelihood, or that the spike was met with strong selling pressure from participants who viewed the news as speculative and overhyped.
The chart ultimately suggests a prevailing sentiment of skepticism among market participants. Even at its peak, the market never priced the probability of U.S. confirmation higher than 24%. The current price of $0.14 implies that the market assigns an 86% probability to a "NO" outcome. The stable price action following the news-driven spike indicates the market has fully absorbed this information and is now awaiting a new, more definitive catalyst to break out of its established trading range.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the U.S. officially confirms the existence of aliens. This confirmation must occur by the end of 2026. If no such confirmation is made by the U.S. within this timeframe, the market resolves to NO, and no special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. How Do U.S. Protocols Handle Unauthorized UAP Disclosures?
| AARO Formation | July 2022 |
|---|---|
| UAP Disclosure Act | Enacted 2023 |
| NARA Collection Deadline | October 23, 2024 |
The U.S. government balances UAP disclosure with national security protection. A dual-track strategy is employed, managing public expectations and maintaining narrative control through official channels. The All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), established in July 2022, serves as the central authority for UAP data, standardizing reporting, and managing public communication. This framework is reinforced by the UAP Disclosure Act of 2023, which mandates a "presumption of immediate disclosure" for UAP records, creating a public collection at the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) with an initial population deadline of October 23, 2024.
High-profile unauthorized UAP disclosures prompt a comprehensive government response. Despite transparency efforts, a fundamental tension persists between legislative mandates and the Executive Branch's need to protect classified information. In the event of an unauthorized, high-profile UAP disclosure, such as by a former President, contingency plans involve a multi-layered response. This includes invoking the Espionage Act for legal action and conducting an Intelligence Community Damage Assessment. A National Security Council-level crisis group would be established to form a unified government position and coordinate strategic public communication, aiming to frame the narrative and potentially release controlled counter-information to mitigate impact. The primary goal is to avoid being forced into an official confirmation of non-human intelligence, making the government's response crucial to public perception and speculative markets.
5. Can Congress Subpoena Non-Human Material Claims Before 2027?
| Grusch Claims Status | Deemed "credible and urgent" by ICIG |
|---|---|
| Alleged Material Transfer | To private defense contractors for analysis |
| Executive Privilege Precedent | Overcome with "strong showing of need" (Senate Select Committee v. Nixon) |
David Grusch alleges classified programs hold non-human materials. Former intelligence officer David Grusch claims that clandestine, multi-decade programs are retrieving and reverse-engineering Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) of "non-human" origin. These allegations, submitted to the Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG), were deemed "credible and urgent". Grusch states these efforts are concealed within Special Access Programs (SAPs), potentially "waived" or "unacknowledged," and involve transferring these non-human materials to private defense contractors for analysis. The raw research output does not specify the precise SAP designations for these alleged materials.
SSCI leadership possesses clearances but faces subpoena hurdles. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) holds statutory oversight responsibility, and its leadership possesses the necessary Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information (TS/SCI) clearances required to investigate these SAPs. While the SSCI has subpoena authority, its effective exercise typically demands bipartisan consensus, either through a majority vote or joint consent from the Chair and Vice Chair. The executive branch would almost certainly invoke executive privilege, necessitating a "strong showing of need" by the SSCI to compel evidence, a legal standard established in precedents like Senate Select Committee v. Nixon. David Grusch's current role as a congressional staffer may strengthen the legislative branch's investigative efforts in this regard.
Official confirmation by 2027 remains highly uncertain. The prospect of a U.S. government confirmation of extraterrestrial life before 2027 largely depends on the SSCI's willingness and ability to overcome these formidable political and legal obstacles. Despite efforts, the potential for protracted legal battles and the critical need for sustained bipartisan political will make the successful execution and enforcement of a subpoena, and thus an official confirmation by 2027, highly uncertain.
6. What Scientific Evidence Is Required to Preclude Terrestrial UAP Origin?
| Public AARO UAP Debris Data | None detailing specific isotopic ratios or metallurgical microstructures (AARO Report Analysis 2026-02-05) |
|---|---|
| Burden of Proof for Non-Terrestrial Origin | Surpasses 5-sigma confidence level (AARO Report Analysis 2026-02-05) |
| Training for Extraterrestrial Materials Analysis | Provided by Extraterrestrial Materials Academy (ETMA) at LPI |
The All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has not publicly released specific isotopic ratio or metallurgical microstructure data from authenticated Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon (UAP) debris. Consequently, there are no public findings from AARO's latest analyses that definitively preclude a terrestrial origin for alleged UAP materials. Any such determination would necessitate adherence to a rigorous scientific framework, utilizing well-established protocols for analyzing non-terrestrial materials.
Proving non-terrestrial origin requires specific isotopic and metallurgical markers. Analysis of UAP materials would critically examine isotopic ratios, such as oxygen isotopes to distinguish solar system bodies or noble gas isotopes to ascertain pristine origins. Anomalous findings, like oxygen isotopes plotting off the Terrestrial Fractionation Line (TFL) or exhibiting unusual isotopic homogeneity, would serve as strong indicators of a non-terrestrial origin. Furthermore, metallurgical analysis would meticulously scrutinize microstructures for evidence of manufacturing processes not feasible or known on Earth, such as zero-gravity forging or embedded nanotechnology, which would leave unique fabrication fingerprints.
Definitive non-terrestrial origin requires multiple lines of strong evidence. A conclusive finding would demand a consilience of evidence, including anomalous isotopic ratios, unique metallurgy, unprecedented physical properties, and impeccable provenance. All such evidence would need to surpass a 5-sigma statistical significance. The current lack of publicly released, peer-reviewed data from AARO indicates that confirming extraterrestrial existence through material science evidence before 2027 remains unlikely, though the possibility of highly classified findings is acknowledged.
7. Is the UAP Whistleblower Surge a U.S. Counterintelligence PSYOP?
| Cumulative UAP Reports (June 2024) | 1,652 reports; 462 unexplained |
|---|---|
| David Grusch's Key Allegation | Claims covert UAP "crash-retrieval" programs with "non-human origin" craft |
| Probability of Official Alien Confirmation (Early 2026) | 15-25% (less than 1 in 4 chance) [learnings] |
The recent surge in UAP whistleblower activity is hypothesized as a U.S. counterintelligence psychological operation (PSYOP). This theory suggests the U.S. government aims to mislead adversaries about advanced domestic military capabilities. Historical precedents, such as the use of "Pentagon Disinformation" during the Cold War to obscure projects like the U-2 and SR-71 spy planes, support this [learnings]. The current situation involves dual-track messaging, where official bodies like the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) report "no empirical evidence" of extraterrestrial technology, while whistleblowers such as David Grusch allege multi-decade, covert "crash-retrieval and reverse-engineering" programs involving craft of "non-human origin". This deliberate ambiguity creates a "fog of information" that serves strategic national interests.
Strategic aims include obscuring technology and deterring adversaries from aggression. This strategy seeks to misattribute the unusual flight characteristics of breakthrough terrestrial technologies, such as advanced unmanned aerial systems or electronic warfare, to UAPs. It also aims to foster a "capability gap" myth, leading adversaries to believe the U.S. possesses physics-defying technology, thereby deterring aggression and misdirecting their research and development efforts. Further support for the PSYOP theory comes from prediction markets for official alien confirmation by 2027, which typically hover in the 15-25% range [learnings]. This indicates that informed participants assign a low probability to genuine non-human intelligence disclosure, making a managed information campaign a more parsimonious explanation for the intense discourse.
However, countervailing evidence suggests a more complex reality than a simple PSYOP. Genuine congressional action, including the UAP Whistleblower Protection Act passed in 2025, and bipartisan criticism of official reports, such as Chris Mellon's characterization of AARO's March 2024 report as "error-ridden and unsatisfactory" [learnings], indicate real policy struggles and internal divisions within the government. The high credibility of witnesses, including decorated Navy combat pilots and career intelligence officers, also challenges the notion of a simple fabrication. An alternative interpretation proposes that the "turbulent history" of UAP handling stems from decades of bureaucratic stove-piping, over-classification, and inconsistent policy finally coming to light, rather than a grand strategic deception [learnings].
8. Will NDAA Mandates Force U.S. Government to Confirm ET by 2027?
| AARO Established | July 2022 |
|---|---|
| First Public UAP Assessment | June 25, 2021 |
| Historical Review Conclusion | No empirical evidence of ET (March 2024) |
National Defense Authorization Acts mandate significant UAP information disclosure. The U.S. government faces increasing legislative mandates, primarily from the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), to disclose information on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP). Provisions in the FY2021 Intelligence Authorization Act led to the first public UAP assessment in June 2021 . The FY2022 NDAA established the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) in July 2022 and mandated annual reports. Furthermore, the FY2023 NDAA compelled a historical review, which concluded in March 2024 that "no empirical evidence" of extraterrestrial technology or government cover-ups existed . These acts create non-discretionary deadlines, compelling executive branch action. The most significant legislative development is the UAP Disclosure Act of 2023, part of the FY2024 NDAA, which establishes a presumption of immediate disclosure for UAP records and mandates an independent review board. This board holds the potential to force the declassification of "smoking gun" documents that could constitute official confirmation of extraterrestrial existence before January 1, 2027, offering a potentially more powerful pathway to disclosure compared to direct Presidential Executive Orders or unclassified ODNI reports.
Official confirmation hinges on the independent review board's actions. While annual UAP reports are highly probable by 2027, past reports have demonstrated "minimal compliance," acknowledging the phenomenon but consistently avoiding extraterrestrial conclusions . Therefore, the likelihood of an official confirmation, such as through a declassified document, largely depends on the effectiveness and timeline of the UAP Records Review Board established by the Disclosure Act. This independent board is positioned to overcome traditional bureaucratic resistance and compel the release of definitive evidence currently held by the government.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts and Timeline
Several factors could push the market towards a 'Yes' confirmation of alien existence before 2027. Increased whistleblower activity, potentially encouraged by new protection legislation, could lead more individuals with classified UAP information to come forward. Ongoing congressional hearings, such as those by the House Oversight Committee's Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets, are demanding greater transparency from the Department of Defense and intelligence community, with mandates in the fiscal year 2026 NDAA requiring briefings on UAP intercepts. The release of compelling evidence, such as recovered non-human technology or verified sensor data, would be a definitive catalyst, with some insiders suggesting a 'big reveal' could occur in 2026 due to political pressures and new legislation.
Conversely, factors reinforcing a 'No' position include a continued lack of verifiable evidence, as official investigations have not yet provided conclusive proof of extraterrestrial origins for UAPs. The All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has stated no verifiable information substantiates claims of possessing extraterrestrial materials. Many UAP incidents are also susceptible to conventional explanations, with investigations by AARO and NASA often attributing phenomena to terrestrial technology or misidentification, thereby diminishing the likelihood of alien confirmation. Explicit government statements from the Pentagon or other U.S. agencies denying extraterrestrial connections, especially if backed by comprehensive reports, would also be a strong bearish catalyst, exacerbated by a perceived lack of cooperation from the DoD and intelligence community.
Key dates and ongoing events before 2027 include congressional briefings and hearings in 2025, such as the House Oversight Committee hearing on UAP transparency in September. The 'Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2025' was introduced in August 2025, seeking to preserve and release government records. The fiscal 2026 NDAA, conferenced in December 2025, mandates Pentagon briefings on UAP intercepts. Insider speculation points to 2026 as a potential year for a major 'reveal,' alongside continued discussions on UAP legislation, further reports from AARO, and updates from NASA's independent UAP study.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several factors could push the market towards a 'Yes' confirmation of alien existence before 2027.
- Trigger: Increased whistleblower activity, potentially encouraged by new protection legislation, could lead more individuals with classified UAP information to come forward [^] .
- Trigger: Ongoing congressional hearings, such as those by the House Oversight Committee's Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets, are demanding greater transparency from the Department of Defense and intelligence community, with mandates in the fiscal year 2026 NDAA requiring briefings on UAP intercepts [^] .
- Trigger: The release of compelling evidence, such as recovered non-human technology or verified sensor data, would be a definitive catalyst, with some insiders suggesting a 'big reveal' could occur in 2026 due to political pressures and new legislation [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXALIENS-26: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
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