Measles cases in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that there will be above 500 measles cases in 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server errors prevented retrieval of any grounded research information.
- Research targeted CDC immunization funding and state public health grants.
- Key catalyst analysis for measles cases remains unavailable at this time.
- Market observed a 9.0 percentage point drop on February 21, 2026.
- Octagon model probability currently aligns precisely with the market's expectation.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10000 | 27.0% | 30.5% | Global vaccination gaps and ongoing outbreaks in conflict zones could sustain very high case counts. |
| Above 4000 | 69.0% | 75.5% | Measles cases globally increased 32% in 2023, with elevated levels continuing into 2024. |
| Above 2000 | 95.0% | 94.0% | Decreased global vaccination rates continue to drive a significant resurgence of measles cases. |
| Above 750 | 1.0% | 99.5% | The global measles resurgence is evident with consistently high case numbers reported since 2022. |
| Above 8000 | 36.0% | 39.5% | Elevated case numbers are sustained by persistent vaccination gaps and regional outbreaks. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This analysis covers the price action for the prediction market "Measles cases in 2026?" (KXMEASLES-26-2000). The market has demonstrated a long-term sideways trend, trading within a wide range between $0.10 and $0.50. Despite this broad range, the price has shown little net movement, starting at $0.29 and currently trading at $0.31. A notable price movement occurred around the Sample 153 point, where the probability climbed to a high of 41.0%, indicating a temporary increase in bullish sentiment. However, this peak was not sustained, and the price subsequently returned to the lower end of its range. As no external context or news has been provided, the specific catalysts for these price fluctuations, including the temporary spike to 41.0%, cannot be determined from the chart data alone.
The market has established clear technical levels, with a strong support floor at the $0.10 mark and a significant resistance ceiling at the $0.50 level. Total volume of 57,029 contracts suggests moderate but not exceptional market participation. Volume appears to have been inconsistent, with periods of higher activity, such as the 573 contracts traded during the move to 41.0%, suggesting greater conviction during that price rally. Other periods show zero volume, indicating lulls in trading. Overall, the market sentiment appears indecisive. The current price of $0.31 implies that traders collectively assign a less than one-in-three chance of the event resolving to YES. The persistent sideways movement suggests the market is in a state of equilibrium, lacking a strong directional conviction and likely awaiting new information that could fundamentally alter the perceived probabilities for 2026.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 21, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 82.0% to 73.0%
Outcome: Above 4000
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content ("Measles cases this year? Odds & Predictions 2026"), the specific resolution triggers, key dates/deadlines, or special settlement conditions for this contract are not available. The provided text only states the market's title and year.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1000 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Above 1250 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Above 500 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Above 750 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Above 1500 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 1750 | $0.97 | $0.04 | 97% |
| Above 2000 | $0.95 | $0.07 | 95% |
| Above 4000 | $0.69 | $0.32 | 69% |
| Above 6000 | $0.51 | $0.50 | 51% |
| Above 8000 | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| Above 10000 | $0.27 | $0.75 | 27% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Were the Outcomes of the Latest Research Attempt?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Encountered | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
The research system encountered an error, preventing data retrieval. The query, which sought information on active legislative proposals for the 2025-2026 sessions in states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona that might weaken school-entry MMR vaccination mandates through expanded personal belief or religious exemptions, resulted in an 'Internal Server Error.' This technical issue prevented the system from retrieving any relevant findings.
No specific findings could be processed or extracted. As a direct consequence of this internal server error, no specific data, insights, or information related to the initial question could be processed or extracted at this time. The server error indicates a problem on the research system's end, which prohibited the successful completion of the data gathering process and, therefore, makes it impossible to provide a summary of key findings or detailed information as requested.
6. What Were the Findings of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Key Findings | Unavailable |
The research query encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue unfortunately prevented the successful retrieval of any information or data points pertinent to the requested analysis. The query aimed to examine the year-over-year trend in counties falling below the 95% herd immunity threshold for kindergarten MMR vaccination, and to identify any new geographic clusters of vulnerability outside traditional hotspots.
No vaccination data or insights were successfully extracted. Due to the encountered error, no specific findings, metrics, or detailed insights could be obtained or formatted as requested in the prompt. Therefore, information regarding county-level trends, changes in vulnerability, or the emergence of new clusters could not be provided.
7. Why Was Research Unsuccessful for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data retrieved |
| Information Gap | Unable to process due to error |
An internal server error prevented the retrieval of research data. The research query encountered an internal server error, which unfortunately prevented the successful retrieval of any findings or relevant data necessary to address the prompt regarding measles outbreak trends, vaccination campaign efficacies, and correlations with US international travel forecasts.
No specific metrics or insights could be extracted. Consequently, no specific metrics, key insights, or supporting details were available to form a comprehensive summary for this section. Due to the encountered error, the requested information cannot be provided at this time, resulting in a complete absence of research-based conclusions.
8. Why Did the Research Query Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Cause | System-level issue (unknown specific cause) |
| Data Availability | None (due to error) |
Research into federal appropriations for the CDC’s Immunization Services Division and state-level public health preparedness grants for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 encountered a system error. The specific focus of the query was to assess changes impacting funding for contact tracing and rapid outbreak response teams compared to pre-COVID levels. However, the research query was unable to retrieve any findings, resulting in no data or insights being gathered.
An internal server error prevented successful data retrieval during the research process. This system-level issue directly obstructed the execution of the information gathering phase, rendering it impossible to collect any relevant data points or generate insights concerning the specified appropriations.
Consequently, no detailed analyses or key findings are available at this time. The fundamental step of information retrieval failed, which means no key findings, specific data points, or comprehensive analyses can be provided. Resolving this issue and proceeding with the research would necessitate further attempts or system diagnostics.
9. What Information Was Found Regarding the Query Topic?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Extraction Status | Failed due to research error |
| Summary Generation | Unable to proceed without valid data |
Research encountered a server error, preventing data retrieval. An internal server error occurred during the research process, which prevented the successful retrieval of information for the requested query concerning the CDC's MMWR reports on 'Vaccination Coverage...Among Children in Kindergarten' for the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 school years. Consequently, no specific data points or detailed findings could be extracted from this intended research topic.
No specific findings or analysis could be generated. Due to this system error, it was not possible to determine the scheduled release dates for these critical data catalysts or to assess if they precede or follow the typical late-winter/early-spring peak measles transmission season. Further successful research attempts are necessary to obtain the required content.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 31, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 36 markets in this series
Outcomes: 20 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMEASLES-2531-2100: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXMEASLES-2531-2050: YES (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXMEASLES-2531-1975: YES (Dec 29, 2025)
- KXMEASLES-2531-1950: YES (Dec 29, 2025)
- KXMEASLES-2531-1925: YES (Dec 29, 2025)
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