Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect OpenAI to have a top-ranked AI model in 2026, seeing no actionable edge.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server errors prevented retrieval of all grounded research findings.
- Key catalyst analysis for this market topic is currently unavailable.
- Market experienced significant price volatility with recent sharp movements.
- Octagon model probability and current market probability are aligned.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| xAI | 51.0% | 48.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| OpenAI | 60.0% | 62.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Anthropic | 43.0% | 48.0% | Model higher by 5.0pp |
| Nvidia | 7.0% | 7.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Deepseek | 27.0% | 21.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has exhibited a clear and sustained downward trend since its inception. Opening at a 61.0% probability, the price has consistently declined to its current level of 46.0%. The overall price has been contained within a range of $0.44 to $0.66, indicating the market's historical valuation boundaries. The most significant single movement detected was a sharp 9.0 percentage point drop on February 19, 2026, when the perceived probability fell from 57.0% to 48.0%. This event represents a major negative shift in trader confidence on that specific day.
Given that no additional context or news was provided, the specific catalyst for the significant price drop on February 19 remains undetermined by this analysis. Such a movement is typically a reaction to a major external event, such as a company announcement, a competitor's breakthrough, or new industry data. The total volume of 10,697 contracts traded suggests a reasonably liquid market where the price reflects a significant aggregation of capital and opinion. The historical low of $0.44 appears to be a key support level, which the current price of $0.46 is approaching.
Overall, the price action suggests a strong and persistent negative shift in market sentiment. Traders have become increasingly pessimistic over time, moving from an initial belief that the outcome was more likely than not (61.0%) to the current view that it is less likely than not (46.0%). The market's consistent downward trajectory, culminating in its current position near historical lows, indicates a strong conviction that the probability of this contract resolving to YES has substantially decreased.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: OpenAI
📈 February 22, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 58.0% to 67.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: Deepseek
📉 February 21, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 27.0% to 18.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: xAI
📉 February 19, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 57.0% to 48.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if a company is determined to have a top-ranked AI model during 'this year', with predictions focused on 2026. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the company does not meet this 'top-ranked AI model' criterion by the end of 2026. No other specific settlement conditions or deadlines are provided in this market description.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | $0.60 | $0.41 | 60% |
| xAI | $0.51 | $0.54 | 51% |
| Anthropic | $0.43 | $0.59 | 43% |
| Deepseek | $0.27 | $0.79 | 27% |
| ByteDance | $0.22 | $0.86 | 22% |
| Alibaba | $0.15 | $0.89 | 15% |
| Meta | $0.15 | $0.88 | 15% |
| Baidu | $0.14 | $0.89 | 14% |
| Z.ai | $0.11 | $0.92 | 11% |
| Mistral | $0.08 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Moonshot AI | $0.08 | $0.98 | 8% |
| 01A1 | $0.07 | $0.99 | 7% |
| Nvidia | $0.07 | $0.96 | 7% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Does An Internal Server Error Affect Research Findings?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Information Extracted | Zero |
The research process encountered a critical internal server error. This technical malfunction prevented the successful retrieval of any data or findings pertaining to the confirmed and projected allocations of next-generation accelerator chips (e.g., Nvidia Blackwell, Groq LPU, custom TPUs/Trainium) for primary 2025-2026 training runs at Google DeepMind, OpenAI/Microsoft, Meta, and Anthropic, as indicated by capital expenditure reports, supply chain analysis, and energy infrastructure contracts.
This technical issue precluded accessing or processing requested information. Due to this server error, no specific details, key findings, data points, or detailed insights could be extracted or summarized from the research. The inability to access or process the information means that the scope of the original query could not be addressed.
Consequently, the initial query remains entirely unanswered. The absence of successful research directly resulting from the technical failure means that no information regarding the requested allocations could be provided.
6. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due To An Internal Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data retrieved |
| Key Findings | Unable to determine due to research error |
The research query encountered a server error, preventing data retrieval. The investigation, which aimed to identify the fastest-adopted evaluation benchmark within enterprise and academic AI safety organizations and assess how leading labs' architectural roadmaps align with excelling on specific benchmark modalities and tasks, could not be completed. This technical issue meant no specific findings or data points for the requested topic were retrieved.
No data, trends, or insights could be reported. Consequently, no key data points, emerging trends, or analytical insights could be processed or summarized from this research attempt. All efforts to gather relevant information were unsuccessful due to the server-side problem, meaning no information is available to report.
7. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | Not Applicable |
| Information Source | No Data Retrieved |
Data retrieval for this research query was unsuccessful due to an internal server error. The research query encountered an 'Internal Server Error,' which prevented the successful retrieval of any relevant information or data. This technical issue completely inhibited the collection of data concerning the net talent flow of senior research scientists and engineers (with 10+ citations in key areas like long-context reasoning, multimodal fusion, or agentic systems) between OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, and Anthropic since Q1 2025, tracked via publication affiliation changes and SEC-disclosed compensation packages.
Consequently, no findings or analysis can be presented at this time. As a direct result of this system error, it is currently impossible to provide specific findings, key data points, or a detailed analysis for the original question. Therefore, the research question cannot be answered as intended. Further attempts to research this topic will be necessary once the underlying technical issue has been fully resolved to allow for data access.
8. What Prevented Key Findings from Being Extracted?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
A critical internal server error halted the research process. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval and extraction of any key findings related to the quantifiable rate of capability improvement for leading open-source model families compared to closed-source models. As a direct consequence, specific data points and a detailed summary of the requested information could not be generated from this research attempt.
No substantive content or analytical results are available. This means that no assessment could be made regarding the rate of capability improvement (e.g., weekly Elo rating change on Chatbot Arena) or whether the 'catch-up' velocity of open-source models is accelerating or decelerating. To obtain the desired findings for this analysis, further investigation and resolution of the internal server error would be required.
9. Why Was Research on This Topic Unsuccessful?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Key Findings | Unable to retrieve |
An internal server error prevented retrieval of research findings. During the research phase concerning the most compelling evidence for scalable high-quality synthetic data pipelines, an internal server error occurred. This technical issue critically prevented the retrieval of any relevant information or data necessary for analysis.
No analysis or summary can currently be provided. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or supporting details could be extracted from the research materials. Therefore, a comprehensive summary and detailed statistics related to the query cannot be furnished at this time. Addressing this research question will require further attempts to gather the necessary information.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 23 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-GOOG: YES (Jan 02, 2026)
- KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ANTH: YES (Feb 07, 2026)
- KXTOPAI-26-JAN01-MOON: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXTOPAI-26-JAN01-Z: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXTOPAI-26-JAN01-N: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
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