Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Yes refers to: Before his term ends
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect that Trump will be impeached and removed from office before his term ends, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Conservative legal bodies haven't validated impeachable offenses for Trump.
- Democratic leaders oppose impeachment, prioritizing electoral success and key issues.
- Republican-controlled House has tabled multiple impeachment resolutions against Trump.
- A 25-point approval drop signals a severe Republican base collapse.
- No fixed number of officials defines a removal predicate for danger.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before his term ends | 22.0% | 14.9% | Widespread bipartisan support following new revelations could lead to his removal from office. |
Current Context
Donald Trump is not expected to be impeached and removed from office before his term concludes on January 20, 2029. Multiple impeachment resolutions were introduced in 2025, including H.Res. 353, H.Res. 537, and H.Res. 939 [^]. These legislative efforts were referred to committee, tabled, or failed in the House of Representatives without achieving passage.
Prediction markets indicate a very low likelihood of impeachment or removal. Polymarket odds show a 12% chance of House impeachment by the end of 2026, which effectively resolves as "No" for the 2025 market [^]. Furthermore, the probability of removal from office by March 2026 is 0% according to trading odds [^]. Republican control of Congress makes both House passage and subsequent Senate conviction, which requires a two-thirds majority, highly improbable before the end of his term.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a prolonged period of stability, with the price trading sideways in an exceptionally narrow range between 20% and 23%. The market opened at 23% and currently sits at 22%, indicating a negligible downward drift but no significant trend or volatility. The price action reflects a strong market consensus that has remained unchallenged over time. This stability is directly correlated with the real-world context, where multiple impeachment resolutions introduced in 2025 failed to advance in the House of Representatives. The lack of any significant price spikes or drops indicates that these legislative failures were either expected by the market or served to solidify the existing low probability assessment, preventing any upward momentum.
The trading volume of 14,472 contracts, when viewed alongside the flat price chart, suggests a market with strong conviction but limited new activity. The lack of volume spikes corresponds with the absence of news that could materially alter the event's probability. This pattern implies that most participants are content holding their positions, believing the current price accurately reflects the very low likelihood of impeachment and removal. The price range itself has acted as a firm channel, with support established at the 20% level and resistance at 23%. The market has been unable to break out of this channel, reinforcing the established sentiment.
Overall, the chart suggests a market sentiment that is deeply skeptical of the possibility of Trump's removal from office before his term ends. The low, stable price reflects the high bar for both impeachment by the House and conviction by the Senate. The lack of volatility, combined with the context of failed legislative actions, points to a firm and unwavering consensus among traders that this event is highly unlikely to occur. The market appears to have priced in the political realities and is not anticipating any developments that would dramatically increase the probability.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before January 20, 2029, provided he is the sitting President on the day the Senate votes. Otherwise, if this event does not occur by January 20, 2029, the market resolves to No, closing at 10:00am EST on that date. The outcome will be verified by the U.S. Senate.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before his term ends | $0.23 | $0.78 | 22% |
Market Discussion
Traders on this market generally view the combined event of Trump being impeached and removed from office as unlikely, with the market pricing it at 23%. Arguments for a "Yes" outcome often cite Trump's perceived recklessness and corruption, with some suggesting a Democratic-controlled Senate could increase the chances of conviction. However, the predominant argument against removal highlights the high constitutional hurdle of a two-thirds Senate majority (67 votes) required for conviction, leading many to consider it an improbable scenario even if impeachment were to occur.
4. What are the constitutional and political hurdles for Trump's removal?
| Conservative Legal Validation | No specific "high crime or misdemeanor" publicly validated for removal [Web Research Results] [^] |
|---|---|
| GOP Senators Needed for Conviction | At least 20 Republican senators (two-thirds majority) [Web Research Results] [^] |
| Max GOP Conviction Votes (Past) | 7 Republican senators (second impeachment trial) [Web Research Results, 8] [^] |
Influential conservative legal bodies have not validated specific impeachable offenses for Trump. Influential conservative legal organizations, including The Federalist Society, have not publicly identified any specific "high crime or misdemeanor" as fulfilling the constitutional standard for Donald Trump's removal from office [Web Research Results]. Historically, these entities define "high... Misdemeanors" as grave offenses such as treason, bribery, or severe abuses of power, which might encompass fiduciary breaches or serious misconduct [^]. Although some conservative interpretations suggest that impeachable offenses are not exclusively criminal [^], these organizations have not applied such definitions to recent events involving Donald Trump to advocate for his removal [Web Research Results].
The political threshold for removal currently remains unmet. The political requirement for removal from office is currently unfulfilled, necessitating a minimum of 20 Republican senators to align with Democrats to achieve the two-thirds majority (67 votes) required for conviction [Web Research Results]. There is no indication that 20 or more Republican senators are prepared to vote for conviction [Web Research Results]. During Donald Trump's second impeachment trial, only a maximum of 7 Republican senators voted to convict, which was far below the needed number [Web Research Results, 8].
Prediction markets show low odds for impeachment and removal. Prediction markets also suggest a low probability for impeachment and removal; for example, Polymarket indicated a 12% chance of Trump being impeached by the end of 2026, and the 2025 impeachment market concluded as "No" [Web Research Results, 9, 10]. Considering the present political climate, removal without substantial bipartisan agreement on an impeachable offense is improbable [Web Research Results].
5. What Indicators Define a Republican Base Collapse in Swing States?
| Severe Base Collapse Indicator | 25-point drop in 60 days among swing state Republican voters (would signal severe collapse) [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump Swing State Approval | Net -5 to -13 points (overall approval in AZ, GA, PA, WI) [^] |
| Trump Removal Probability | 5% (prediction markets) [^] |
A substantial decline in Republican approval signifies a severe base collapse. A rapid 25-point drop in approval within 60 days among self-identified Republican voters in swing states is not an explicitly defined metric for base collapse, but such a decline would unequivocally indicate a severe collapse of the base [^]. For context, a 23-point shift among non-college voters, a group often considered a proxy for the Republican base, has previously been described as an "absolutely collapsing" trend [^].
Current polling shows Trump's approval underwater across key swing states. Donald Trump's overall approval rating is negative across all seven swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with net approval ranging from -5 to -13 points [^]. Nationally, a gradual erosion of Republican support for Trump has been observed. For example, Quinnipiac polls noted an approximate 8-point drop in his approval among Republicans, moving from 94% to 86% over a four-month period. Additionally, Republican support for his policies has declined from 67% to 56% [^].
Significant base collapse would pressure senators, but removal remains unlikely. A severe collapse in base support, such as a 25-point drop, would likely generate substantial pressure on Republican senators, especially given impending midterm elections [^]. Despite this, historical data indicates consistently low Republican base loyalty for supporting impeachment, typically ranging from 8% to 13% [^]. This low probability of removal is reflected in prediction markets, with Manifold Markets pricing the likelihood of Donald Trump being impeached and removed from office before his term ends at only 5% [^].
6. Do Democratic Leaders Support Trump Impeachment Efforts Now?
| Democratic Leadership Stance | Actively oppose or avoid Trump impeachment efforts [^] |
|---|---|
| Electoral Backlash Polling | No cited internal polling shows impeachment would not backfire electorally [Web Research Results] [^] |
| Prediction Market Impeachment Odds | 51% chance of impeachment before Trump's term ends [^] |
Democratic leaders currently oppose impeachment, prioritizing electoral success and key issues. Key Democratic leaders, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have not publicly pivoted to supporting impeachment for former President Trump. Instead, they actively oppose or avoid such efforts, prioritizing upcoming elections and issues like affordability [^]. This aligns with a broader party concern about a potential electoral backlash in the 2026 midterms, as evidenced by twenty-three Democrats voting against impeachment efforts [^]. The party's focus remains on maintaining or gaining a House majority [^].
No public data supports impeachment without 2026 electoral backfire. There is no publicly cited internal polling data from competitive 'Biden-Trump' districts suggesting that an impeachment effort would not electorally backfire in the 2026 midterms [Web Research Results]. Democrats broadly fear an electoral backlash from such an action, preferring to concentrate on broader issues they believe will resonate more effectively with voters [^]. While prediction markets currently indicate a 51% chance of impeachment before Trump's term concludes, the short-term odds are considerably lower [^].
7. How Many Officials Co-Sign for National Security Removal Predicate?
| GOP Officials Declaring Trump Dangerous | 50 (2016) [^] |
|---|---|
| Former Defense Secretaries Warning on Elections | 10 (2021) [^] |
| Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairmen Criticizing Trump | 4 (2020) [^] |
No fixed number of officials establishes a 'clear and present danger' for removal. Research indicates that no specific numerical threshold has been identified for how many former cabinet-level national security officials or former Joint Chiefs of Staff from Republican administrations would need to co-sign a public letter to establish a bipartisan national security predicate for removal by declaring a specific Trump action a "clear and present danger" to the United States. The impact of such a declaration is more likely influenced by the prominence and collective influence of the signers rather than a fixed count. The concept of a bipartisan national security predicate for removal, therefore, relies on the weight of the collective professional judgment and public standing of the officials involved, rather than a set numerical requirement.
Historical letters demonstrate the significant impact of collective official statements. In 2016, 50 senior Republican national security officials signed a letter stating that Donald Trump posed a danger to national security [^]. Another instance occurred in 2021 when 10 former Defense Secretaries, from both Republican and Democratic administrations, co-signed an open letter warning against military involvement in election disputes [^]. By 2020, four former Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had also publicly criticized Trump [^]. While recent letters from 2024 have seen dozens of former Republican officials opposing Trump, these statements are not explicitly linked to impeachment or removal proceedings, nor are they framed as declaring a "clear and present danger" to the nation [^].
8. What is the latest date to launch an impeachment inquiry for 2029?
| Shortest House Inquiry to Vote | Approximately 2.5 months [^] |
|---|---|
| Fastest Senate Trial Conclusion | Approximately 1 month (31 days) [^] |
| Latest Launch for 2029 Inauguration | March 2028 [^] |
Historical House impeachment proceedings show diverse durations to a vote. The shortest historical timeline for a House impeachment inquiry to a vote was approximately 2.5 months, observed during the process against Bill Clinton from October 8 to December 19, 1998 [^]. The first impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump followed a similar pattern, concluding in approximately 2.75 months, from September 24 to December 18, 2019 [^]. For comparison, the impeachment proceedings against Richard Nixon extended for about 5.5 months, measured from the formal inquiry resolution to the House Judiciary Committee's vote on articles [^].
Combining House and Senate procedures yields varying total impeachment timelines. Following a House vote, the subsequent Senate trial also has historical precedents, with the fastest recent example being Donald Trump's second impeachment trial, which concluded in approximately 31 days, or about one month [^]. Integrating the shortest House process of approximately 2.5 months with this fastest Senate trial suggests a total minimum process duration of roughly 3.5 months. A more conservative estimation, allocating three months for the House investigation and two months for the Senate trial, results in a total of five months.
No 2027 launch date allows full impeachment before January 2029. Working backward from the January 20, 2029, inauguration date, these historical timelines indicate that the latest a formal impeachment inquiry could be launched to ensure its conclusion before that date would be approximately March 2028. This timeframe suggests that no calendar date in 2027 would provide sufficient time for the entire impeachment process, including a full House investigation, vote, and subsequent Senate trial, to conclude based on historical precedents.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of March 26, 2026, Donald Trump has not been impeached or removed from office, having begun his second term on January 20, 2025 [^] . Multiple impeachment resolutions have been introduced in the House of Representatives, but none have advanced beyond committee referral or being tabled due to the Republican-controlled House [^]. Current prediction markets reflect low odds for impeachment, with Polymarket showing 12% by the end of 2026 and 5% by June 2026 [^]. The probability of removal from office is even lower, at 7% by June 2026, primarily because a two-thirds Senate vote is required, which is unlikely given the current 53-47 Republican majority [^]. The most significant upcoming catalyst is the 2026 midterm elections on November 3 [^]. If the Democratic Party were to gain control of the House of Representatives, the odds of impeachment would increase considerably [^]. One prediction market estimates these odds could rise to as high as 69% for impeachment before his term concludes on January 20, 2029, if the House flips to Democratic control [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 20, 2029
- Closes: January 20, 2029
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of March 26, 2026, Donald Trump has not been impeached or removed from office, having begun his second term on January 20, 2025 [^] .
- Trigger: Multiple impeachment resolutions have been introduced in the House of Representatives, but none have advanced beyond committee referral or being tabled due to the Republican-controlled House [^] .
- Trigger: Current prediction markets reflect low odds for impeachment, with Polymarket showing 12% by the end of 2026 and 5% by June 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: The probability of removal from office is even lower, at 7% by June 2026, primarily because a two-thirds Senate vote is required, which is unlikely given the current 53-47 Republican majority [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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