Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
Short Answer
The model identifies Lee Zeldin as the most likely outcome for Trump's next Attorney General, assigning meaningfully lower odds at 33.3% compared to the market's 51.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Pam Bondi is Donald Trump's explicitly stated pick for Attorney General.
- Key Republican Senators would likely block Matt Gaetz's AG nomination.
- Gene Hamilton and Steven Engel significantly shaped Project 2025 DOJ policy.
- Jay Clayton, a Trump loyalist, is reportedly considered for administration roles.
- Strong negatives for named candidates increase likelihood of an unlisted pick.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Blanche | 33.0% | 22.0% | He is a lead defense attorney for Trump, demonstrating trust and loyalty. |
| Lee Zeldin | 51.0% | 33.3% | A prominent Trump ally and former Congressman, he is mentioned for high-level administration roles. |
| Ken Paxton | 5.0% | 2.3% | As Texas Attorney General, he has been a vocal Trump supporter and litigated on his behalf. |
| Jay Clayton | 2.0% | 4.7% | He is a 'moderate Trump loyalist' and former SEC chairman considered for administration roles. |
| Harmeet Dhillon | 7.0% | 6.2% | A prominent conservative lawyer and RNC official, she is a vocal supporter of Trump. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is characterized by a single, dramatic event on April 2, 2026. The contract began with a negligible probability of 1.0% before experiencing an explosive 53-point spike to its current price of 54.0%. The price range and sample data show that the contract reached a peak of at least 84.0% during this surge before settling lower. This rapid, vertical movement establishes the market's entire upward trend and indicates a sudden, fundamental re-evaluation of the candidate's chances by traders.
While the specific external news or event that caused this spike is not provided, the trading volume confirms its significance. Volume was virtually non-existent before April 2nd but surged to over 99,000 contracts during the price movement, signaling very high conviction behind the re-pricing. The peak near 86.0% now represents a key resistance level that was tested and rejected, while the current price around 54.0% has formed a new support or consolidation level. The chart suggests that market sentiment shifted decisively, transforming this candidate from an outsider to the perceived front-runner in a single day. The partial retracement from the peak indicates some profit-taking or disagreement about the initial high valuation, but the sustained price above 50% reflects a consensus that the candidate is now the most likely choice.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 02, 2026: 53.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 54.0%
Outcome: Lee Zeldin
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Lee Zeldin is the first new person appointed as Trump's Attorney General before January 20, 2029; otherwise, it resolves to NO. Acting or interim office holders are excluded, but Senate-confirmed or recess appointments are included, even if later deemed illegal. The market closes upon the outcome or by January 20, 2029, 10:00 AM EST, with payouts approximately 30 minutes after closing, based on a list of major news outlets.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Zeldin | $0.51 | $0.50 | 51% |
| Todd Blanche | $0.33 | $0.71 | 33% |
| Harmeet Dhillon | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Ken Paxton | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Robert Giuffra | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Ron DeSantis | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Mike Lee | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Ted Cruz | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Eric Schmitt | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Jay Clayton | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Jeanine Pirro | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Aileen Cannon | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Alina Habba | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Andrew Bailey | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ashley Moody | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jeff Jensen | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Matt Gaetz | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Matt Whitaker | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market largely views Lee Zeldin as the most likely next Attorney General at 51%, but Todd Blanche has seen a significant surge to 33% due to a rumored Truth Social announcement from Trump. A key point of discussion among traders is whether such an appointment for Blanche would be considered an "acting or interim" role, which is excluded by the market rules. Other candidates like Eric Schmitt and Ted Cruz are also being considered, with arguments for their ease of Senate confirmation or strategic political benefits.
5. Who are the architects of Project 2025's DOJ framework?
| Gene Hamilton's Project 2025 Role | Co-Editor & Author, Chapter 17 "Department of Justice" [^] |
|---|---|
| Steven A. Engel's Project 2025 Role | Co-Author, Chapter 17 "Department of Justice" [^] |
| Paul Dans's Vetting Scope | Oversees vetting for ~4,000 political appointees and up to 50,000 federal positions [^] |
Gene Hamilton and Steven A. Engel significantly shaped Project 2025's Department of Justice plans. Hamilton is credited as a Co-Editor and author of Chapter 17, titled "Department of Justice," within Project 2025's "Mandate for Leadership," which outlines the proposed framework for the DOJ [^]. He also serves as the Associate Director of the Center for Legal and Judicial Studies at The Heritage Foundation [^]. Engel co-authored Chapter 17 alongside Hamilton, contributing to the detailed policy recommendations for the department [^].
Paul Dans oversees Project 2025's extensive personnel vetting and talent management. As a prominent project leader, Dans is central to the overall personnel vetting process, leading the Presidential Transition Project which encompasses identifying and vetting individuals for key government positions [^]. This comprehensive process aims to staff an incoming administration with approximately 4,000 political appointees and up to 50,000 federal positions, including critical roles within the Department of Justice [^]. The research does not identify specific potential Attorney General nominees being championed by Stephen Miller within this particular context.
6. Would Matt Gaetz's Attorney General nomination be blocked?
| Senatorial Opposition | Senators Collins and Murkowski signaled opposition [^] |
|---|---|
| Collins' Reaction | Expressed "shock" at Gaetz AG prospect [^] |
| Capitol Hill Reaction | Triggered an "audible gasp" among Republicans [^] |
Matt Gaetz would likely face significant hurdles and a high probability of being blocked by potential GOP swing votes in the Senate for an Attorney General nomination. Key moderate Republican Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) have explicitly signaled their opposition to Gaetz's potential bid [^]. Senator Collins publicly stated she was "shocked" by the suggestion of his nomination [^].
Widespread negative reactions among Republicans signal internal opposition. The prospect of Gaetz as Attorney General has been met with considerable negative reactions across Capitol Hill. Reports indicate an "audible gasp" among some Republicans, and a general sense of "stunning" among others [^]. Gaetz himself reportedly acknowledged that at least four Republican Senators would "tank" his nomination, highlighting the awareness of substantial intra-party opposition [^].
7. How Did Pam Bondi's Media Appearances Influence Her AG Nomination?
| Pam Bondi conservative media appearances | At least six since January 2023 [^] |
|---|---|
| Matt Gaetz conservative media appearances | At least two since January 2023 [^] |
| Pam Bondi AG selection | Selected by Donald Trump as U.S. Attorney General [^] |
Pam Bondi frequently defended Donald Trump on major conservative news outlets. Since January 2023, she made at least six documented appearances on channels such as Newsmax and Fox News to address his criminal indictments and trials. During these appearances, Bondi notably defended Trump against Espionage Act charges [^], stated that a conviction would be overturned [^], criticized Fani Willis [^], discussed potential changes of venue [^], argued against Letitia James' prosecution [^], and asserted that Trump was "in the right" regarding classified documents [^].
Other figures also publicly defended Trump, highlighting loyalty's role in appointments. Representative Matt Gaetz also publicly defended Trump on these outlets, calling his indictment "clearly political, frivolous" on Fox News [^] and the charges "severe election interference" on Newsmax [^], totaling at least two relevant appearances. The frequency and public nature of these defenses, particularly from individuals considered for high-level government roles, suggest that consistent and visible loyalty to Donald Trump's cause could be a significant factor in his appointment decisions. Pam Bondi, who has engaged in extensive public advocacy for Trump's legal defense, has since been announced as his selection for U.S. Attorney General [^], indicating that such demonstrated loyalty and commitment may be a primary consideration in his selection process for loyalty-based appointments.
8. Is There a Parallel, Quieter Selection Track for Trump's Cabinet?
| Jay Clayton Status | Reportedly in discussions for potential roles in a Trump administration [^] |
|---|---|
| Matt Gaetz Attorney General | Withdrew from consideration for Attorney General [^] |
| Attorney General Candidate Focus | Trump's search emphasizes a loyal Attorney General supporting mass deportations and pardons [^] |
Direct evidence for a 'parallel, quieter selection track' remains unsubstantiated. Available research does not explicitly detail a distinct selection track focused on candidates meeting with Trump's financial backers and established D.C. legal figures. However, Jay Clayton, identified as a 'moderate Trump loyalist' and former Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission with deep establishment credentials, is reportedly in discussions for potential roles within a Trump administration [^]. His consideration suggests a broadening of the candidate pool, particularly following the withdrawal of Matt Gaetz, who was initially considered for the Attorney General position [^].
Reports generally discuss Trump's overall search for a loyal Attorney General. The emphasis in these discussions is on identifying individuals who would support specific policies such as mass deportations and pardons [^]. While figures like Clayton, who align with an establishment profile, are reportedly under consideration for administrative roles [^], the research does not provide direct evidence of a specific 'parallel, quieter selection track' involving the particular meetings described in the prompt.
9. How Does AG Nomination Timing Reflect Presidential Strategy?
| Sessions Nomination Date | November 18, 2016 [^] |
|---|---|
| Sessions Nomination Timing | Ten days after 2016 presidential election [^] |
| Barr Nomination Date | December 7, 2018 [^] |
An Attorney General pick during a presidential transition is often an early, decisive announcement. Donald Trump's initial Attorney General selection in 2016, Jeff Sessions, exemplifies this by being an early and decisive announcement intended to project strength. Sessions' nomination was announced on November 18, 2016, just ten days after the presidential election [^]. This swift selection placed the Attorney General among Trump's earliest cabinet announcements, alongside figures such as Mike Pompeo for CIA Director and Michael Flynn for National Security Advisor [^]. Such an early announcement typically favors candidates perceived as strong, loyal allies and ideological torchbearers, signaling the new administration's immediate policy direction and resolve [^]. Sessions, a prominent early supporter of Trump, fit this profile, reflecting a choice made to quickly establish the incoming administration's priorities and project a clear stance on law and order [^].
Later Attorney General nominations tend to be strategic choices responding to evolving circumstances. In contrast, William Barr's nomination for Attorney General on December 7, 2018, was a later and more strategic choice, occurring nearly two years into Trump's term after Jeff Sessions had departed [^]. This timeline indicates that Barr's selection was not part of the initial transition's projection of strength but rather a response to a changed political landscape and a specific vacancy. A later, strategic nomination, particularly for a replacement, tends to favor candidates with extensive experience, a track record of navigating complex political challenges, or a reputation for restoring stability. Barr, having previously served as Attorney General under President George H.W. Bush, brought a wealth of experience and a perceived ability to handle ongoing political and legal issues, making him a pragmatic choice for the circumstances [^].
The timing of Attorney General nominations favors different candidate profiles. Based on the differing timelines of the Sessions and Barr nominations, an Attorney General pick during a presidential transition is likely to be an early, decisive announcement aimed at projecting strength and establishing the new administration's ideological direction. This favors candidates who are closely aligned with the incoming president's campaign message and vision. A later nomination, especially one made after the initial transition or to fill a vacancy, is more likely to be a strategic choice, prioritizing experience, political acumen, and the ability to navigate a matured political landscape and specific challenges.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 20, 2029
- Closes: January 20, 2029
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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