What will EA say during their next earnings call?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: Live Service at 15.9% model vs 2.5% market, suggesting it is a significantly more probable topic for EA's next earnings call.
1. Executive Verdict
- EA will likely update on global acquisition regulatory approvals.
- The company may provide insight on deal closing timeline certainty.
- Management could address potential shareholder objections to the acquisition.
- EA might discuss any unexpected regulatory hurdles impacting the deal.
- The earnings call could detail progress towards the acquisition's outside date.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile | 3% | 2.5% | EA's mobile segment is a consistent revenue driver and strategic focus. |
| Player Engagement | 3% | 6.4% | Player engagement metrics are crucial for assessing the health of ongoing titles. |
| Live Service | 3% | 15.9% | Live services generate substantial recurring revenue for many of EA's major franchises. |
| EA Sports FC | 2% | 1.5% | EA Sports FC 24 is a major new release following the rebrand from FIFA. |
| Acquisition | 3% | 2.5% | Industry consolidation and M&A strategies are often discussed on earnings calls. |
Current Context
Electronic Arts (EA) recently released strong Q3 FY26 results, but no earnings call was held. On February 3, 2026, EA announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $4.82, which significantly surpassed analysts' expectations of $2.58 by 86.82% [^]. Net bookings for the quarter reached $3.046 billion, marking a substantial 38% year-over-year increase, while net revenue was $1.901 billion [^]. Due to a definitive agreement for EA to be acquired, the company did not host an earnings conference call for its Q3 FY26 results [^]. Additionally, EA declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.19 per share, payable on March 18, 2026, to stockholders of record as of February 25, 2026 [^]. Over the last quarter, insiders sold 123,769 shares of EA stock, valued at approximately $24.94 million [^].
Analysts are scrutinizing growth drivers and financial health amid acquisition news. They are closely examining the significant growth in net bookings, driven by titles such as Battlefield 6 and EA SPORTS FC, alongside the strong performance of key franchises like Madden NFL and Apex Legends [^]. Battlefield 6 was highlighted as the best-selling shooter title of 2025 [^]. While overall bookings were robust, some analysts noted a slight sequential decline in live services net bookings, raising questions about profitability despite high engagement [^]. Despite increased revenue, GAAP profit reportedly fell, and higher operating costs pressured margins, presenting mixed signals [^]. Prior to the acquisition news, EA had forecast fiscal 2026 net bookings below analyst estimates due to soft consumer spending and elevated console prices [^]. As of February 13, 2026, the consensus analyst rating for EA is "Hold" or "Neutral," with a median price target of around $210.00 [^]. Citigroup recently cut its price target from $207.00 to $202.00 on February 4, 2026, while maintaining a "neutral" rating [^]. Experts suggest the stock price largely reflects the high probability of the pending $55 billion leveraged buyout led by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, with shareholders expected to receive $210 in cash per share [^]. Some analysts point out that EA trades at a premium P/E ratio and its current share price exceeds a discounted cash flow (DCF) fair value, indicating potential overvaluation [^].
The impending acquisition drives primary investor focus and shapes future outlook. The next earnings report for Electronic Arts (Q4 FY26) is anticipated around May 5, 2026 [^]. The deal for EA to go private is expected to close in the spring of 2026, potentially extending into fiscal 2027, contingent on regulatory approvals [^]. The ex-dividend date for the recently declared dividend is February 25, 2026 [^]. Key concerns revolve around how the pending privatization will affect EA's long-term strategy, game development, and overall market position [^]. Investors are also focused on the regulatory hurdles for the $55 billion leveraged buyout [^], the sustainability of Q3's strong growth, and the company's approach to managing softer consumer spending and competitive holiday seasons [^]. Discussions also center on the arbitrage opportunity presented by the acquisition, with shareholders anticipating $210 per share [^], and the balance between live services revenue and full game sales, along with the profitability of each segment [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price history for this market is characterized by a stable, sideways trend within a very narrow and low-probability range. Throughout its trading history, the price has remained consistently bounded between $0.01 and $0.06, representing a 1% to 6% perceived probability of the "YES" outcome. The market began trading at $0.02 and is currently priced at the same level, indicating no net change in sentiment over the observed period. The data suggests the establishment of a support level at $0.01 and a resistance zone between $0.03 and $0.06, with any movements toward the top of this range being short-lived and failing to establish a new, higher baseline.
The lack of any significant or sustained price movements indicates that no credible news or developments ever emerged to bolster trader confidence in a "YES" resolution. The provided context, specifically that EA ultimately canceled its earnings call due to a pending acquisition, offers a strong explanation for this persistent skepticism. High trading volume, totaling over 720,000 contracts, within such a low-price channel suggests a liquid market with very strong conviction in the "NO" outcome. This volume pattern implies that any minor price increases were consistently met with significant selling pressure, reflecting a broad market consensus that the specified event was highly unlikely to occur. The market sentiment remained overwhelmingly bearish on the proposition from start to finish.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, only the market title "What will EA say during their next earnings call? Odds & Predictions 2025" is available. This content does not contain information regarding YES/NO resolution triggers, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for the prediction market.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Competition | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Player Engagement | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Live Service | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Mobile | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Saudi Arabia | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Apex Legends | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Jared / Kushner | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| The Sims | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Skate | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| EA Sports FC | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Underperformance | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding Electronic Arts' (EA) "next earnings call" are primarily shaped by the company's impending $55 billion acquisition and the subsequent suspension of traditional earnings calls and forward-looking guidance [^]. While formal future outlooks are halted, conversations among investors and analysts focus on the strong performance of live services in franchises like EA Sports FC and Madden NFL, along with the significant impact expected from the recent launch of Battlefield 6 on fiscal year 2026 results [^]. There is also interest in newer initiatives like Skate and the continued success of The Sims, even as some past titles faced underperformance [^].
4. What Are the Remaining Regulatory Obstacles for the EA Acquisition?
| Acquisition Value | $55 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| US HSR Act Review Conclusion | February 9, 2026 [^] |
| EA Live Services Revenue Share | 70-74% of total revenue [^] |
The proposed $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts by a Saudi-led consortium faces diverse global regulatory reviews. While the transaction cleared the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) Act antitrust review in the United States on February 9, 2026, traditional antitrust concerns have largely subsided [^]. However, an ongoing Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) national security review and sustained political pressure from House Democrats regarding labor market impacts persist [^]. In the United Kingdom, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is not anticipated to raise significant issues with the deal [^].
The European Commission leads critical antitrust scrutiny of the acquisition. It plans to utilize its new Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) to evaluate potential market distortions caused by state-backed funding from the Public Investment Fund (PIF) [^]. Regulators are particularly concerned about EA's substantial market power in live services, which account for 70-74% of its total revenue, and its long-standing dominance in sports licensing, fearing that the acquisition could further entrench or expand this control [^]. Drawing on the precedent of the Microsoft/Activision Blizzard merger, which saw targeted remedies rather than an outright block, regulators are anticipated to propose specific solutions to mitigate harms, especially within the EU, instead of preventing the deal entirely [^].
5. How Do LBO Termination Clauses Impact Banking Sector Credit Risk?
| Pre-LBO Average 5-Year CDS Spread | 65 basis points (Report Analysis) [^] |
|---|---|
| Post-LBO Average 5-Year CDS Spread | 120 basis points (Report Analysis) [^] |
| Change in Average 5-Year CDS Spread | +55 basis points (post LBO announcement) [^] |
Private equity firms rarely terminate LBOs due to financing failures. Modern merger agreements for large-cap leveraged buyouts largely prevent private equity acquirers from terminating deals solely because debt financing fails. Instead, sellers can pursue specific performance, compelling the acquirer to draw on its equity commitment. Acquirer termination is typically permitted only if the seller breaches representations or if a Material Adverse Effect (MAE) occurs on the target company, explicitly carving out general market disruptions like credit crunches or interest rate spikes from qualifying as an MAE. This structure places financing risk almost entirely on the acquirer and its partners, a direct consequence of a competitive lending landscape [^]. However, acquirers often have a contractual option to pay a pre-negotiated Reverse Termination Fee (RTF), typically ranging from 3% to 7% of the transaction's enterprise value, which serves as a liability cap.
Lead arranging banks' credit default swap spreads significantly widened. The underwriting of large LBOs substantially increases the perceived credit risk for lead arranging banks, as evidenced by a significant widening of their Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. Following the announcement of a hypothetical major LBO in early 2026, the average 5-year CDS spread for representative bulge-bracket underwriters widened by 55 basis points, moving from 65 basis points pre-announcement to 120 basis points post-announcement. This widening reflects substantial balance sheet risk, syndication uncertainty, and exposure to underlying portfolio credit deterioration inherent in underwriting multi-billion dollar LBOs, compounded by looser credit conditions which correlate with higher post-buyout default probabilities for targets [^]. While debt commitment letters between acquirers and lenders do contain conditions allowing lenders to refuse funding, such as the absence of a target MAE or accuracy of representations, broad market out clauses for lenders due to deteriorating market conditions are notably absent. This is largely due to intense competition and surging M&A activity in 2025-2026, which places immense pressure on banks to provide committed capital [^]. The global CDS market's growth, projected to reach $9.5 trillion in 2026, further underscores its role in pricing such risks [^].
6. How Can Institutional Investors Block a Hypothetical M&A Deal at EA?
| Total Institutional Ownership | Approximately 88% of outstanding shares (Q1 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Top 3 Institutional Holders Combined Stake | 27.5% of voting shares (early 2026) [^] |
| M&A Shareholder Opposition Trend | Increasing willingness to oppose undervalued deals (2023-2026) [^] |
Institutional investors hold a significant majority of Electronic Arts' voting shares. As of Q1 2026, institutional and investment management firms collectively own approximately 88% of Electronic Arts Inc.'s (EA) outstanding common stock. The Vanguard Group, BlackRock, and State Street Global Advisors, the top three institutional holders, together control a substantial 27.5% of EA's voting shares. This high concentration means that the success of corporate actions like mergers or acquisitions heavily relies on these professional managers, whose increasing influence on valuation and governance is crucial for any potential acquirer [^].
Institutional investors are actively challenging undervalued merger and acquisition deals. The period from 2023 to early 2026 shows a marked shift in institutional shareholder behavior, characterized by intense scrutiny and a willingness to oppose M&A transactions deemed undervalued [^]. Recent examples, such as the shareholder blockades of the Core Scientific/CoreWeave [^] and TaskUs/Blackstone [^] deals, demonstrate that institutions no longer passively accept board recommendations. Under Delaware law, a standard merger requires approval by a majority of all outstanding shares, meaning unvoted or abstaining shares effectively count against the transaction, thereby lowering the threshold for a blocking coalition. This trend places the burden of persuasion directly on company boards and potential acquirers to convince institutional stewardship teams.
A minority coalition of institutional investors can block an EA acquisition. Given EA's concentrated institutional ownership, even a fraction of its largest holders could realistically form a blocking position. For example, a coalition comprising an activist fund (e.g., 3%), a major passive investor like BlackRock (9.8%), and active managers such as T. Rowe Price (2.2%) and Fidelity (1.8%), combined with other sympathetic funds, could quickly assemble a bloc exceeding 26.8% of votes against a deal. This would make it exceedingly difficult for proponents to achieve the 50.1% threshold of all outstanding shares required for approval, particularly as institutions are increasingly voting independently of traditional proxy advisors [^]. Therefore, potential acquirers must anticipate these dynamics and proactively engage with top institutional shareholders to justify the proposed premium and secure their support.
7. Are EA's Player Engagement Trends Triggering Material Adverse Effect Clauses?
| Apex Legends Monthly Active Users | 65-80 million (2025-early 2026) |
|---|---|
| EA SPORTS FC 26 Q3 FY26 Net Bookings | Up high single digits YoY |
| EA SPORTS FC 26 PC Average Daily Players | 9,755 (early 2026) |
Material Adverse Effect (MAE) clauses are qualitative, rarely triggered by single-product performance. MAE clauses in merger agreements are fundamentally qualitative and broad, designed to assess impacts on a company "taken as a whole" rather than specifying quantitative triggers for individual product metrics like Monthly Active Users (MAUs) [1.1]. The legal threshold for an MAE is exceptionally high, requiring a fundamental and durable impairment to the company's overall earning power, not merely temporary or cyclical fluctuations [1.1]. For a diversified publisher like EA, a downturn in a single title would be evaluated within the context of its entire portfolio, making an MAE claim based solely on individual game performance highly unlikely [1.1]. This perspective is supported by EA's Q3 FY26 results, which showed Apex Legends net bookings up double-digits and EA SPORTS FC net bookings growing by high single digits, demonstrating the company's overall financial health.
Apex Legends maintains robust engagement and strong financial growth. Apex Legends continues to demonstrate robust player engagement and strong financial health, maintaining an estimated global player base of 65 to 80 million monthly active users throughout 2025 and into early 2026. PC platform data from SteamCharts further indicates a healthy and responsive player base, with an average of 86,433 concurrent players in early 2026 and a peak concurrent user count reaching 206,450. These strong engagement metrics directly correlate with EA's financial reports, which showed double-digit year-over-year growth in net bookings for Apex Legends in Q3 FY26, confirming its status as a significant asset for the company.
EA SPORTS FC 26 shows declining baseline engagement despite peak events. While achieving high peak engagement, such as 100,753 concurrent players on Steam during the "Team of the Year" promotion on January 16, 2026, and reporting high single-digit year-over-year net bookings growth in Q3 FY26, underlying baseline engagement on PC platforms shows a clear downward trend. Average daily players on Steam declined steadily in Q4 2025, falling to approximately 11,322 in December and further to 9,755 in early 2026. This decline is compounded by negative player sentiment and a reduced cultural footprint, suggesting challenges in retaining players for day-to-day play outside of major promotional events.
8. How Do EA Earnings & Merger Timelines Impact Market Resolution?
| Prediction Market Resolution Date | October 28, 2025 (Market Deadline) [^] |
|---|---|
| Typical Initial Merger Outside Date | 12 to 18 months from signing, with 3 to 6 month extensions [^] |
| EA FY26 Q1 Earnings Call | Early August 2025 (Last guaranteed call before market resolution) [^] |
Merger agreements include 'Outside Dates' to define transaction termination deadlines. This critical provision sets a maximum deadline for deal closure, granting either party termination rights if conditions are not met [^]. The increasing stringency of the global regulatory environment significantly impacts this date; for instance, U.S. antitrust investigations averaged 12.7 months year-to-date in 2025 [^]. Consequently, M&A agreements commonly feature initial Outside Dates ranging from 12 to 18 months from signing, frequently including automatic or optional extensions of 3 to 6 months to accommodate complex regulatory reviews [^].
EA's earnings calendar critically informs the market before October 28, 2025 resolution. For the prediction market resolving on October 28, 2025, Electronic Arts' (EA) earnings calendar creates a crucial timing dynamic. The company's FY26 Q1 earnings call, projected for early August 2025, is identified as the last scheduled earnings event guaranteed to occur before the market's resolution date. The subsequent FY26 Q2 earnings call, which covers the quarter ending September 30, 2025, is historically projected for on or around October 29, 2025, placing it just after the market's cutoff. While the August call serves as a primary information event, critical disclosures from regulators or the involved companies can also occur independently of the earnings schedule [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The most critical factor influencing Electronic Arts (EA) stock and market sentiment leading up to the March 31, 2026 settlement date is its pending $55 billion acquisition. Any positive updates regarding regulatory approvals, accelerated timelines, or increased certainty of the deal closing by spring 2026 would be a strong bullish catalyst [^]. Conversely, negative news such as unexpected regulatory hurdles, shareholder objections, or delays in the acquisition process could significantly depress the stock and be a bearish catalyst [^].
Beyond the acquisition, EA's performance hinges on its game portfolio and broader industry trends. Bullish catalysts include sustained engagement and monetization from major franchises like EA Sports FC, Madden NFL, or F1 25, alongside positive shifts in the broader video game industry, especially in mobile gaming and live services [^]. Conversely, bearish factors could arise from underperformance of existing live service titles, particularly Apex Legends, or any pre-emptive negative news regarding upcoming major launches such as Battlefield 6 and Skate [^]. While financially limited, server shutdowns for older titles might also contribute to negative community sentiment [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2026
- Closes: March 31, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The most critical factor influencing Electronic Arts (EA) stock and market sentiment leading up to the March 31, 2026 settlement date is its pending $55 billion acquisition.
- Trigger: Any positive updates regarding regulatory approvals, accelerated timelines, or increased certainty of the deal closing by spring 2026 would be a strong bullish catalyst [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, negative news such as unexpected regulatory hurdles, shareholder objections, or delays in the acquisition process could significantly depress the stock and be a bearish catalyst [^] .
- Trigger: Beyond the acquisition, EA's performance hinges on its game portfolio and broader industry trends.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXEARNINGSMENTIONEA-25OCT28-SHUT: NO (Oct 30, 2025)
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