Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 59.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| OpenAI | 48.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | $0.59 | $0.44 | 59% |
| OpenAI | $0.48 | $0.56 | 48% |
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