Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: OpenAI at 51.2% model vs 62.0% market, suggesting the market may be overestimating OpenAI's likelihood to IPO first, though OpenAI remains the most likely outcome.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Neither company secured an IPO underwriting mandate as of March 2026.
  • Neither firm completed PCAOB-compliant audits for recent fiscal years.
  • OpenAI's CFO lacks specific >$10 billion IPO experience.
  • Strategic investors do not pressure for specific IPO dates.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic target initial public offerings in H2 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Anthropic 44.0% 31.0% Anthropic's rapid expansion and funding needs could drive an earlier move to the public markets.
OpenAI 62.0% 51.2% OpenAI's strong revenue growth and market position may facilitate an earlier IPO.

Current Context

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has yet completed an initial public offering. As of March 25, 2026, neither company has gone public, though both are actively pursuing this path. OpenAI is aggressively preparing for a Q4 2026 IPO, evidenced by recent finance hires and informal bank discussions [^]. Anthropic's preparations began earlier, with a law firm engaged in December 2025, but prediction markets currently indicate low odds (6%) for its IPO by June 2026 [^]. While no S-1 filings or specific IPO dates have been announced, there is a strong expectation that both companies will eventually IPO before 2040.
OpenAI is accelerating IPO preparations despite significant cash burn. Its internal all-hands meetings are focusing on enterprise applications as a critical step before a public debut, aligning with its Q4 2026 IPO target [^]. The company reported approximately $13 billion in revenue for 2025 and projects a run-rate exceeding $25 billion, though it anticipates substantial compute expenditures, estimated at $600 billion by 2030 [^]. Experts suggest that OpenAI's urgency for an IPO stems from its considerable cash burn, pushing it towards an earlier public offering.
Anthropic's earlier start positions it favorably in prediction markets. Despite starting preparations earlier by hiring a law firm in December 2025, prediction markets like Polymarket favor Anthropic IPOing before OpenAI by the end of 2027, with odds around 57%; earlier reports cited 72% on Kalshi [^]. Anthropic reported $7 billion in revenue for 2025 and is targeting an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $26 billion for 2026, alongside a valuation exceeding $350 billion [^]. Expert opinions are divided: some predict Anthropic will IPO first due to its cleaner corporate structure and clearer path to profitability, with breakeven projected for 2028, in contrast to OpenAI's ongoing losses [^]. Conversely, others point to OpenAI's aggressive push. Despite these mixed views and market predictions, OpenAI currently appears to be on a faster track for a 2026 IPO based on recent March updates.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which tracks the likelihood of OpenAI holding an IPO before Anthropic, has shown a generally upward trend since its inception. The market's probability started at 54.0% and has since climbed to a current price of 62.0%, with a total traded range between 52.0% and 65.0%. The most significant price movement was a sharp 11.0 percentage point drop on March 20, 2026, when the price fell from a high of 65.0% to 54.0%. According to market context, this drop was a direct reaction to news reports detailing OpenAI's substantial financial losses in 2025, which raised concerns among traders about its near-term IPO viability.
Despite this notable downturn, the market has demonstrated resilience. The 54.0% level, which was the market's starting point, appears to have acted as a strong support level, from which the price has since recovered to 62.0%. This recovery suggests that traders have largely discounted the negative financial news in the context of the race against Anthropic. The 65.0% mark has established itself as a key resistance level. Trading volume has been active, with recent sample data showing an increase in activity, indicating growing conviction and engagement from market participants as more news about both companies' IPO plans emerges. Overall, the price action suggests that while the market is sensitive to news about OpenAI's financial health, the prevailing sentiment remains confident that OpenAI is the more likely of the two companies to go public first.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 March 20, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 65.0% to 54.0%

Outcome: OpenAI

What happened: The primary driver for the 11.0 percentage point drop in "OpenAI" as the first to IPO was the release of news detailing OpenAI's significant financial challenges on March 20, 2026 [^]. Reports indicated an estimated $11.5 billion loss for OpenAI in 2025, with projections of $14-25 billion in losses for 2026, and gross margins falling from 40% to 33% [^]. This traditional news directly coincided with the market movement, likely raising concerns about OpenAI's IPO readiness and potentially delaying its timeline relative to Anthropic [^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Anthropic confirms an IPO first, prior to January 1, 2040, using specified sources such as the SEC, NYSE, or major financial news outlets. Otherwise, if Anthropic does not IPO first by this deadline, the market resolves to "No". The market will close early if the event occurs, or by December 31, 2039, at 11:59 PM EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
OpenAI $0.61 $0.45 62%
Anthropic $0.45 $0.56 44%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets and public discussion generally indicate Anthropic is more likely to IPO first than OpenAI, with Polymarket currently giving Anthropic a 55-60% chance by end-2027 [^]. Both companies are reportedly targeting IPOs as early as 2026, with OpenAI aiming for Q4 2026 [^] and Anthropic preparing for a debut in the same year [^]. While the outcome is uncertain, market sentiment often points to Anthropic's faster preparation, including hiring IPO lawyers, as a potential edge.

5. Which Banks Are Underwriting OpenAI, Anthropic IPO S-1 Filings?

Anthropic IPO Probability57% chance of IPOing before OpenAI [^]
OpenAI IPO TimelineAnticipated as early as 2026 [^]
Anthropic IPO Legal CounselWilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati [^]
No formal underwriting mandate exists for major AI firms as of March 2026. As of March 25, 2026, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has formally mandated an investment bank, specifically Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, or JP Morgan, to underwrite an S-1 filing. Both companies have moved beyond informal talks and are actively preparing for potential initial public offerings, engaging legal counsel and building out their financial infrastructure.
OpenAI actively prepares for its IPO, engaging top legal counsel. The company has retained law firms Cooley and Wachtell to advise on its initial public offering preparations, with a listing anticipated as early as 2026, potentially by the fourth quarter [^]. OpenAI is also in the process of building out its finance team in anticipation of its public debut [^].
Anthropic also advances its IPO plans, signaling a massive valuation. It has engaged Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati to advise on its IPO, indicating its intent for what could become one of the largest technology initial public offerings ever, with a potential valuation exceeding $300 billion [^]. Like OpenAI, Anthropic is actively expanding its finance teams as part of its preparations [^]. Prediction markets currently estimate a 57% probability of Anthropic going public before OpenAI [^], highlighting the competitive race toward a public listing between these prominent AI leaders [^].

6. What Corporate Restructuring Actions Has OpenAI Taken Since January 2026?

Latest Restructuring ActionsNo specific corporate restructuring actions since January 2026 to resolve 'capped-profit' model (Web Research Results) [^]
Major Governance Change DateOctober 28, 2025 (Web Research Results, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6) [^]
Current IPO Readiness TimelineAccelerating IPO planning for late 2026 (Web Research Results, 7, 9, 10) [^]
OpenAI resolved its capped-profit model prior to January 2026. Specific corporate restructuring actions to address the complex 'capped-profit' governance model, a known obstacle for a traditional public offering, were undertaken before this period. The major restructuring occurred on October 28, 2025, when the company transitioned from its prior capped-profit subsidiary structure to an OpenAI Group Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) controlled by the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation [^]. This strategic move was specifically designed to resolve obstacles for a traditional public offering and enable preparations for a potential IPO targeting late 2026 [^].
Post-January 2026, OpenAI focused on operational IPO readiness. Following this fundamental governance change, OpenAI's activities have primarily involved operational adjustments and strengthening its readiness for a public offering, rather than further board-level governance changes to its corporate structure. These activities include updates to the executive organization chart, such as those in February 2026, and significant hires within its finance team to bolster IPO readiness [^]. The company is actively building out its finance team and accelerating planning for a potential IPO, with targets for the fourth quarter of 2026 [^].

7. Do OpenAI and Anthropic CFOs Have >$10B IPO Experience as CFO?

OpenAI CFO IPO Lead ExperienceSarah Friar's prior CFO IPOs (Square ~$3B, Nextdoor ~$2B) did not exceed $10B as CFO [^]
Anthropic CFO IPO Lead ExperienceKrishna Rao contributed to Airbnb IPO (~$47B) as Global Head of Corporate & Business Development, not CFO [8, 9, Web Research Results] [^]
Overall CFO IPO Requirement MetNeither CFO led a US tech company's >$10B IPO as CFO [Web Research Results] [^]
OpenAI's new CFO, Sarah Friar, lacks specific >$10B IPO experience. Sarah Friar was announced as OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer on June 10, 2024 [^]. Her prior experience includes serving as CFO at Square (now Block) and as CEO at Nextdoor [^]. While at Square, she was involved with an IPO valued at approximately $3 billion. Nextdoor went public via a SPAC with a valuation of roughly $2 billion [1, 6, Web Research Results]. In neither of these capacities did she lead a US-based technology company through an IPO exceeding $10 billion in the specific role of a Chief Financial Officer.
Anthropic's CFO, Krishna Rao, did not lead Airbnb's IPO as CFO. Krishna Rao joined Anthropic as Chief Financial Officer in May 2024 [^]. He contributed to Airbnb's IPO, which achieved an approximate valuation of $47 billion and later surged past $100 billion [8, 9, Web Research Results]. However, during Airbnb's IPO, Rao's role was Global Head of Corporate & Business Development and an FP&A leader, not the leading Chief Financial Officer [Web Research Results]. Therefore, his experience does not meet the specified criterion of leading a >$10 billion IPO as a CFO. Based on current information, neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has hired a Chief Financial Officer with prior experience leading a US-based technology company through a >$10 billion IPO specifically in the capacity of a CFO [Web Research Results].

8. Do Strategic Investors Pressure OpenAI or Anthropic for IPOs?

Microsoft Stake in OpenAIApproximately 27% [^]
Google Stake in AnthropicAbout 14% non-voting stake [^]
IPO Mandates in AgreementsNo verifiable evidence of contractual pressure [Web Research Results] [^]
Strategic investors are not contractually pressuring for specific IPO dates. There is no verifiable evidence within publicly available shareholder agreements or statements indicating that Microsoft, Amazon, or Google are contractually pressuring OpenAI or Anthropic for an initial public offering by a specific date. Public disclosures detail the nature of these strategic partnerships, which include significant equity stakes. Microsoft holds approximately 27% of OpenAI's for-profit arm [^], and public statements regarding their partnership outline intellectual property rights, substantial compute commitments, and broader collaboration rather than IPO mandates [^]. Similarly, Google holds about a 14% non-voting stake in Anthropic [^], and Amazon is identified as a primary cloud partner for Anthropic [^]. None of these publicized agreements or announcements contain stipulations for IPO deadlines or contractual pressure from the strategic investors.
Potential IPOs are driven by internal needs and long-term objectives. Instead, any preparations for potential initial public offerings, such as OpenAI's rumored H2 2026 filing or Anthropic's 2026 IPO rumors, appear to be driven by the companies' internal growth needs and long-term strategic objectives. Strategic investors, while holding substantial influence, generally support the creation of structures like Public Benefit Corporations (PBCs) that enable public listings without enforcing them through specific contractual deadlines. Earlier OpenAI terms even featured redemption rights tied to the achievement of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) rather than pre-determined IPO timelines.

9. Have OpenAI or Anthropic Completed PCAOB Audits for IPO?

PCAOB Audit Status (FY24/25)Neither completed nor received sign-off for either company (Web Research Results) [^]
S-1 Filing RequirementPCAOB-compliant audits are a non-negotiable prerequisite (Question Context) [^]
OpenAI IPO Plan & HiringQ4 FY26 IPO planned, Chief Accounting Officer hired (4, 5, 6) [^]
Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has completed PCAOB-compliant audits for recent fiscal years. As of March 25, 2026, neither company has publicly completed or received sign-off on PCAOB-compliant audited financial statements for fiscal years 2024 and 2025. These specific audits are a critical and non-negotiable prerequisite for a public S-1 filing. While the prediction market regarding which company will IPO first remains unresolved, neither company has publicly disclosed the completion of these essential audits. OpenAI's auditor identity remains undisclosed; public information only identifies an older 2020 GAAS audit conducted by BDO.
Companies bolster financial teams, preparing for potential public offerings. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are actively preparing for potential initial public offerings, suggesting that the required audits are likely in progress. OpenAI is reportedly planning a Q4 FY26 IPO and has expanded its finance team, including the addition of a Chief Accounting Officer [^]. Similarly, Anthropic is strengthening its financial operations by hiring key roles such as a Financial Reporting Accountant [^]. These hiring activities by both companies indicate a concerted effort to build the necessary financial infrastructure and readiness for public offerings, which encompasses the rigorous process of PCAOB-compliant audits [^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

No major AI company has IPO'd as of March 25, 2026, but the landscape is set to change with OpenAI and Anthropic targeting initial public offerings in H2 2026 [^] . OpenAI is reportedly aiming for a Q4 2026 IPO to potentially precede Anthropic, though Polymarket odds currently favor Anthropic IPOing first by 2027 with a 55-57% probability [^].
For OpenAI, key catalysts include its substantial $25B ARR and a projected $830B-$1T valuation, bolstered by strategic finance hires like CFO Sarah Friar and a planned Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) restructure in October 2025. The development of its Stargate infrastructure project also serves as a positive indicator. However, significant headwinds include an anticipated $14B in losses for 2026, with profitability not expected until 2030, and a pending Musk trial in Spring 2026. Its S-1 filing is anticipated in mid-2026 [^].
Anthropic presents a competitive profile with $19B ARR and a faster path to profitability, expected to break even by 2028. Valued at $350B, the company has already engaged Wilson Sonsini for IPO preparation, signaling advanced readiness. Bullish factors for Anthropic include its faster growth trajectory and a strong focus on enterprise solutions. Its S-1 filing is expected earlier than OpenAI's, in Q2-Q3 2026 [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2040
  • Closes: January 01, 2040

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: No major AI company has IPO'd as of March 25, 2026, but the landscape is set to change with OpenAI and Anthropic targeting initial public offerings in H2 2026 [^] .
  • Trigger: OpenAI is reportedly aiming for a Q4 2026 IPO to potentially precede Anthropic, though Polymarket odds currently favor Anthropic IPOing first by 2027 with a 55-57% probability [^] .
  • Trigger: For OpenAI, key catalysts include its substantial $25B ARR and a projected $830B-$1T valuation, bolstered by strategic finance hires like CFO Sarah Friar and a planned Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) restructure in October 2025.
  • Trigger: The development of its Stargate infrastructure project also serves as a positive indicator.

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.