Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for OpenAI IPOing first, estimating an 84.2% probability compared to the market's 58.0%. OpenAI is the most likely outcome before 2040, with the model suggesting the market may be underestimating its readiness to go public sooner than Anthropic.

1. Executive Verdict

  • OpenAI targets S-1 filing in Q4 2026, aiming for 2027 public listing.
  • Accelerated profitability for OpenAI enhances investor appeal for an earlier IPO.
  • Major AI product breakthroughs or AGI progress could solidify market dominance.
  • OpenAI's development of an automated AI research intern is projected by 2026.
  • Specific financial metrics for S-1 preconditions could not be retrieved by research.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Anthropic 51.0% 47.5% Market higher by 3.5pp
OpenAI 60.0% 58.0% The weighted logit shift (+2.0 for Grade A evidence) overrides the market’s current skepticism, reflecting Nvidia’s CEO confirmation of an impending IPO, though the Bilateral Critic argues regulatory risks (e.g., Anthropic’s issues) persist as countervailing pressures.

Current Context

The discussion around whether OpenAI or Anthropic will achieve an Initial Public Offering (IPO) first is intensifying, with both companies indicating preparations for potential public debuts as early as 2026. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently suggested that his company's latest investments—$30 billion in OpenAI and $10 billion in Anthropic—are likely final before the AI firms potentially go public, signaling their nearing market readiness [^]. However, prediction markets currently lean against near-term IPOs, showing OpenAI with a 40% chance of IPO by December 2026 and Anthropic with an even lower probability [^]. Furthermore, Anthropic's recent refusal of a Pentagon request, leading to a federal ban and termination of $200 million in government contracts, contrasted with OpenAI's subsequent agreement with the Pentagon, has sparked a debate on ethics versus national security [^]. A general tech stock selloff and increased market volatility, driven by concerns over rapid AI advancements, also present a challenge that might cause both companies to reassess their IPO timing [^].
High valuations and significant cash burn define both companies' financials, attracting close investor scrutiny. OpenAI's secondary share sale valued it at approximately $500 billion, with an IPO target of up to $1 trillion, while Anthropic saw private funding rounds valuing it at $350 billion in January 2026, targeting a potential IPO market cap of $200-$400 billion [^]. Revenue figures are substantial, with OpenAI reaching $13 billion in 2025 and projecting $100 billion by 2028, and Anthropic growing to $4.5 billion in 2025 with projections of $40 billion by 2028, guiding towards a $26 billion annualized run rate by the end of 2026 [^]. Despite rapid growth, profitability timelines remain a key concern; OpenAI doesn't anticipate profitability until 2030, while Anthropic is projected to reach it as early as 2028 [^]. Both companies also face immense capital requirements for AI infrastructure, with OpenAI reportedly committing $1.4 trillion and Anthropic planning a $50 billion expansion [^]. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's comments point to pre-IPO readiness [^], though OpenAI CFO Sarah Frier has publicly stated no near-term IPO for her company [^]. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei continues to prioritize AI safety, noting enterprise clients form 80% of his company's business [^]. Asset management firm GMO warns that large IPOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX in 2026 could oversaturate the market, potentially leading to a broader stock market decline [^].
The market scrutinizes the sustainability and broader impact of these potential IPOs, leading to several common questions and concerns. The primary question remains which company will go public first, as both are seen as competing to gain market validation, attract talent, and enhance brand awareness [^]. Significant debate surrounds the sustainability of their incredibly high private valuations and whether future profitability justifies them, fueling fears of an "AI Bubble" [^]. Investors are particularly concerned about the substantial capital expenditure required for AI development and the long timelines to profitability for both companies [^]. Experts question whether the sheer size of these anticipated IPOs, combined with SpaceX, could negatively impact the overall stock market by diverting capital from existing investments [^]. The divergent stances of Anthropic and OpenAI regarding military use and government partnerships are sparking debates about the ethical responsibilities of AI companies [^]. OpenAI's deep commercial ties with Microsoft also raise questions about potential governance issues should it go public [^]. Finally, anticipated small public floats for these mega-IPOs could limit liquidity, affect price discovery, and potentially delay their inclusion in major indices like the S&P 500 [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
The prediction market for "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" has demonstrated a clear downward trend for the "OpenAI" outcome. Opening at a confident 61.0% probability, the price has since fallen to its current level of 47.0%, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment away from an OpenAI-first IPO. The market has been volatile, with a broad trading range between 11.0% and 73.0%. Recent price action has been notably reactive to news concerning its competitor, Anthropic. For instance, a 9.0 percentage point drop in OpenAI's probability on February 18, 2026, directly corresponds to an announcement of new web tools by Anthropic, which traders likely interpreted as a sign of Anthropic's increasing market readiness and a higher chance of a preemptive IPO. Conversely, an approximate 11.0 percentage point spike for OpenAI occurred around February 24, 2026, when Anthropic's initiation of a secondary share sale was perceived as a move that could delay its public offering, thus improving OpenAI's relative chances.
Trading volume has been substantial over the market's life, with over 17,000 contracts traded, suggesting strong conviction and active participation. Volume appears to spike around significant news events, underscoring the market's sensitivity to new information. Key price levels can be identified, with the market finding historical resistance near the 73.0% mark and support around the 11.0% low. The 50.0% level has served as a critical psychological pivot point; the sustained trading below this level recently reinforces the current bearish sentiment for OpenAI.
Overall, the chart suggests that initial optimism for OpenAI winning the race to an IPO has waned considerably. The market now narrowly favors Anthropic, with the current 47.0% price for OpenAI reflecting slightly less-than-even odds. Sentiment is fluid and highly event-driven, with traders pricing in news about either company's financing, product development, and corporate structuring as signals of their proximity to a public offering. The consistent downward trend indicates a sustained re-evaluation by the market, which has steadily downgraded OpenAI's probability of being the first to go public.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: OpenAI

📈 February 26, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 47.0% to 56.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike favoring "OpenAI" in the "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" prediction market on February 26, 2026, was a confluence of significant negative news for Anthropic coinciding with positive strategic announcements for OpenAI [^]. On February 26, 2026, news broke that the Trump administration was threatening to label Anthropic a "supply chain risk" due to its refusal to allow its AI for military surveillance or autonomous kill targets, with reports explicitly stating this "could destroy Anthropic's business momentum and potential IPO" [^]. Simultaneously, on the same day, OpenAI announced London would become its largest research hub outside the US [^]. This dramatic negative development for Anthropic directly impacting its IPO prospects, coupled with a strategic positive move for OpenAI, likely caused the immediate shift in market sentiment [^]. Social media activity, driven by the breaking news from traditional outlets, would have served as a contributing accelerant, rapidly disseminating these high-impact narratives across platforms, leading, or coinciding with, the price movement [^].

📉 February 12, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 47.0% to 38.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "OpenAI" outcome on February 12, 2026, in the "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" prediction market was a traditional news event: the reported firing of an OpenAI Vice President amidst sexual discrimination allegations [^]. This news directly impacted OpenAI's perceived IPO odds, with reports indicating a rise in the likelihood of "No IPO by Dec 31, 2026" and a drop in overall IPO odds from 60% to 47% within 24 hours [^]. This event coincided with the price move, creating governance concerns and signaling potential delays or hurdles for OpenAI's public listing [^]. While Anthropic also announced a substantial $30 billion Series G funding round on the same day, significantly bolstering its financial position and IPO readiness, the direct negative development concerning OpenAI's internal stability and IPO prospects was the more immediate catalyst for the decline in its "IPO first" prediction market outcome [^]. Social media was mostly noise or irrelevant in this specific movement [^].

📈 February 09, 2026: 25.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 46.0%

What happened: The 25.0 percentage point spike in the "OpenAI" outcome on February 09, 2026, in the "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" prediction market was primarily driven by a Reuters report indicating that OpenAI was "laying groundwork for an IPO that could value it at up to $1 trillion, with the ChatGPT maker considering a filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026" [^]. This breaking news from a major outlet directly addressed OpenAI's IPO prospects and timing [^]. While there was general discussion on social media about potential 2026 IPOs for both companies, no specific posts from key figures directly preceded or coincided with the precise spike on February 9, 2026, in a manner that would suggest social media was the primary driver [^]. Therefore, traditional news was the primary driver of this price movement [^].

Outcome: Anthropic

📉 February 24, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 67.0% to 56.0%

What happened: The 11.0 percentage point drop in the "Anthropic" outcome on the "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" prediction market on February 24, 2026, was primarily driven by Anthropic initiating a secondary share sale for employees on that same day [^]. This market structure event, allowing current and former employees to sell shares at a valuation of approximately $350 billion, signaled that Anthropic was providing liquidity to its stakeholders through a mechanism other than an immediate public offering, thereby reducing the perceived urgency or likelihood of it IPOing first [^]. This news appeared to coincide with the price move, as it directly addressed the timing and method of liquidity for Anthropic's equity holders [^]. Social media was irrelevant in driving this specific price movement, as the identified primary driver was a traditional news announcement regarding a company's internal financial operations [^].

📈 February 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 61.0% to 70.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" prediction market for "Anthropic" on February 18, 2026, was the announcement of Anthropic's enhanced web search and web fetch tools [^]. On that day, Anthropic released new versions of these tools for its Claude AI model, enabling Claude to "natively write and execute code during web searches to filter results before they reach the context window, improving its accuracy and token efficiency." This news was reported by The Economic Times, indicating a significant development in Anthropic's AI capabilities that coincided directly with the market movement [^]. The technological advancement likely increased investor confidence in Anthropic's competitive positioning and its readiness for a potential IPO [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, as the spread of this news likely amplified the market's reaction, especially given the existing discussions around Anthropic's potential 2026 IPO and its recent $30 billion Series G funding round (announced February 12, 2026) [^].

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market asks whether OpenAI or Anthropic will complete an Initial Public Offering (IPO) first. It resolves to YES if either company IPOs before the other, and to NO if this condition is not met. The market's resolution deadline is 2039, and no further special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
OpenAI $0.60 $0.41 60%
Anthropic $0.53 $0.50 51%

Market Discussion

Debates surrounding whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first highlight differing strengths and market sentiments [^]. Many experts and prediction markets, such as Polymarket, suggest Anthropic has a higher probability of going public before OpenAI, with Polymarket showing a 61% chance as of March 4, 2026 [^]. This is partly attributed to Anthropic's robust enterprise focus, significant revenue growth ($14 billion annualized run rate), and a projected earlier path to profitability by 2028 [^]. Conversely, OpenAI is also aggressively preparing for a potential IPO in late 2026, driven by a need for investor liquidity and capital market flexibility, despite a higher burn rate and a later profitability target of 2030 [^]. The sheer scale of both companies' valuations—OpenAI at $840 billion and Anthropic at $380 billion—raises concerns among investors about a potential "AI bubble" and the unprecedented demands these mega-IPOs will place on public markets [^].

5. Why Was Researching This Question Not Possible?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Issue DescriptionServer-side error prevented research completion
Research attempt on cap table pressure encountered a server error. An internal server error was encountered during the attempt to research the requested question, which aimed to analyze quantifiable pressure for a near-term liquidity event from pre-2025 venture investors and employee stock option holders, based on secondary market activity on platforms like Forge Global and EquityZen. This technical issue prevented the system from accessing or processing any information relevant to the query regarding company cap tables.
No specific findings or analysis could be generated. Due to this research failure, the intended content generation was aborted before any data could be extracted or formatted. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or detailed analysis regarding the volume and pricing of shares on secondary markets can be provided at this time.
Retrying research or investigating server issues is recommended. To address this issue and obtain the desired information, it is recommended to re-attempt the research request. Alternatively, an investigation into the server-side problem is advised to ensure successful information retrieval in the future.

6. What Are the Implications of a Research Data Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Key FindingsUnavailable
Research was halted due to a critical data extraction error. An internal server error occurred during the research process, which prevented the extraction of any specific findings or data points. Consequently, a detailed analysis regarding OpenAI's 'capped-profit' model versus Anthropic's Public Benefit Corporation charter and their impact on SEC S-1 review processes cannot be provided at this time.
Consequently, no metrics or explanatory details could be generated. Due to the inability to access or process the required data, all sections pertaining to key metrics and explanatory paragraphs remain unpopulated. This indicates a critical failure in the data retrieval system, precluding any further report generation.

7. Why is current research information unavailable for this question?

Research StatusUnsuccessful (Internal Server Error)
Key Data Point 1Not Available
Key Data Point 2Not Available
Research completion was prevented by a technical system error. The requested research could not be completed due to an internal server error. This technical issue directly prevented the extraction of specific findings, crucial data points, and a comprehensive summary related to the query.
Critical information and key metrics remain unavailable currently. Consequently, detailed information and key metrics for this topic are presently unavailable. To acquire the desired insights, the research process will need to be re-attempted once the underlying server issue is fully resolved.

8. Why Was Information Unavailable for This Research Query?

Research StatusFailed
Reason for FailureInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNone Retrieved
Research on partnership agreement clauses could not be completed. The investigation into specific clauses within partnership agreements, particularly those between OpenAI and Microsoft, and Anthropic with Amazon/Google, regarding potential incentives for IPO timeline adjustments benefiting cloud platforms or enterprise AI strategies, encountered a significant technical impediment. An internal server error prevented the successful completion of the requested research query, making it impossible to retrieve any pertinent data or information. Consequently, no findings, data points, or detailed analysis can be presented.
No specific details or supported claims are currently available. The system's inability to access the necessary resources means that the requested content is unavailable at this time. This technical issue precludes the extraction of key metrics, a summary of findings, or any supported claims from the intended research. Users are advised to attempt the query again later to potentially obtain the desired information.

9. What Information Could Not Be Retrieved Due To An Error?

Research StatusFailed
Error TypeInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNone
No specific financial metrics for S-1 preconditions could be retrieved. The research request, which aimed to identify key internal financial targets like OpenAI's quarterly GAAP net income or Anthropic's $26 billion annualized revenue run rate for late 2026 as prerequisites for S-1 filings, encountered an 'Internal Server Error' during its execution.
Consequently, the research process was unable to complete successfully. This technical issue directly prevented the extraction of any specific findings or data relevant to the intended question. As a result, no insights, statistics, or summaries can be provided from this particular research attempt.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

OpenAI's likelihood of an earlier IPO could increase with a formal announcement of an S-1 filing, reportedly targeted for Q4 2026 with a possible listing in 2027 [^] . Key drivers include an accelerated path to profitability, moving its current 2029-2030 projection earlier, which would enhance investor appeal [^]. Major product breakthroughs, like new AI models or significant progress towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) such as an automated AI research intern by September 2026, could also solidify market dominance and investor confidence [^]. Additionally, further over-subscribed private funding rounds, explicitly linked to pre-IPO funding, would signal robust public market demand [^].
Conversely, Anthropic could achieve an earlier IPO if it makes a formal S-1 filing announcement ahead of OpenAI's reported 2026-2027 targets, with the company reportedly preparing for an IPO as early as 2026 [^] . Its projection to achieve positive cash flow and break even by 2028, potentially two years earlier than OpenAI, could make it a more attractive public investment sooner [^]. Accelerated revenue growth, exceeding $19 billion in March 2026, coupled with a rapidly reducing cash burn, further positions Anthropic for an expedited IPO [^]. Potential delays for OpenAI include its substantial projected cash burn, with operating losses of $8 billion in 2025 and cumulative losses of $115-$218 billion through 2029, or significant regulatory challenges [^]. The reversal of the U.S. DoD's "supply-chain risk" designation for Anthropic could also remove a potential hurdle, bolstering its public image and accelerating its path to market [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2040
  • Closes: January 01, 2040

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: OpenAI's likelihood of an earlier IPO could increase with a formal announcement of an S-1 filing, reportedly targeted for Q4 2026 with a possible listing in 2027 [^] .
  • Trigger: Key drivers include an accelerated path to profitability, moving its current 2029-2030 projection earlier, which would enhance investor appeal [^] .
  • Trigger: Major product breakthroughs, like new AI models or significant progress towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) such as an automated AI research intern by September 2026, could also solidify market dominance and investor confidence [^] .
  • Trigger: Additionally, further over-subscribed private funding rounds, explicitly linked to pre-IPO funding, would signal robust public market demand [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.