Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes refers to: Positive Growth
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Positive Growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Octagon Deep Research encountered widespread internal server errors.
- Key analysis on S&P earnings forecasts and market rates was unavailable.
- Crucial catalyst analysis for the market outcomes remains entirely unavailable.
- The market probability recently experienced a significant percentage point drop.
- Octagon's model probability currently aligns with the market's expectation.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive Growth | 58.0% | 56.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
Current Context
A technical issue prevents comprehensive S&P 500 year-end market analysis. Due to a technical issue with the search tool, the requested information regarding the S&P 500's year-end performance cannot be retrieved at this time, making a current state summary for the prediction market unavailable.
Current market sentiments and critical data points remain inaccessible. Therefore, details regarding what people are currently searching for, discussing, and debating concerning the S&P 500's year-end outcome are unavailable. This technical limitation also prevents the identification of recent news, key data points, expert opinions, upcoming events, or common questions and concerns related to the S&P 500's performance.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market shows a consistent, long-term downward trend in the perceived probability of the S&P 500 finishing the year positive. The price opened at $0.65, indicating a 65.0% confidence level, and has since declined to its current price of $0.57. Throughout its history, the price has traded within a range of $0.55 to $0.70. The most significant price movement noted was a sharp 9.0 percentage point drop on February 24, 2026, which saw the probability fall from 66.0% to 57.0%. According to the provided context, a technical issue prevents the retrieval of any news or market data from that date, making it impossible to determine the specific catalyst for this sudden decrease in confidence.
The market has seen a total volume of 169,189 contracts traded, suggesting sustained interest over the period. Early trading saw higher volume, indicating strong initial participation, while later periods show more sporadic activity. From a technical perspective, the price has found a potential support level at $0.55, the bottom of its trading range, which has not been breached. The current price of $0.57 is hovering just above this level. Conversely, the $0.65 to $0.70 range has acted as a resistance zone where bullish sentiment has historically weakened. The overall price action suggests a clear erosion of market optimism. The sentiment has shifted from moderately bullish to a more neutral or slightly bearish outlook, reflecting growing uncertainty among traders regarding a positive year-end close for the S&P 500.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 24, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 57.0%
Outcome: Positive Growth
What happened: I am unable to provide information about events that occurred on February 24, 2026, as my knowledge cutoff is prior to that date. I cannot access real-time news, social media, or market data to determine the cause of the prediction market price movement. Therefore, I cannot identify the primary driver, nor can I analyze social media activity or traditional news for that specific date.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution occurs if the S&P 500 finishes the year 2026 with a positive gain; a NO resolution occurs if it finishes negative or flat. The market's final resolution date is December 31, 2026, at 19:00 UTC, and no special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive Growth | $0.58 | $0.45 | 58% |
Market Discussion
The debate surrounding whether the S&P 500 will finish positive this year (2026) is characterized by a mix of cautious optimism and significant concerns [^]. Many financial experts and institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, project continued gains for the S&P 500, citing robust corporate earnings growth, the ongoing AI boom, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts as key drivers [^]. However, a strong counter-argument emphasizes potential risks such as elevated valuations, the concentrated performance of a few "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, historical tendencies for market declines in midterm election years, and geopolitical uncertainties, with some prediction markets indicating a higher probability of a market correction [^].
5. Why Was Research on This Question Unavailable Due to Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | Unavailable |
| Summary Content | No findings to report |
Research on market-implied policy rate could not be completed. The requested information regarding the delta between the market-implied policy rate for the December 2026 FOMC meeting, derived from Fed Funds futures, and the median 'dot plot' projection from the Fed's most recent Summary of Economic Projections, could not be retrieved.
An internal server error prevented data retrieval and analysis. During the research process, an internal server error was encountered, which prevented access to or processing of the necessary data sources. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or detailed analysis could be generated, and it was impossible to extract any key metrics or formulate a comprehensive summary related to the query.
6. Why Did Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | Not available due to error |
| Error Cause | System-level issue |
The research process encountered a technical server error. The investigation into the aggregate Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings growth forecast for the top 10 weighted S&P 500 constituents, along with its revisions over the past 30 days, was halted due to an internal server error. This technical malfunction prevented the successful retrieval and processing of any pertinent information required for the analysis.
No specific findings or data could be generated. Consequently, the inability to access and process the necessary data meant that no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries related to the earnings growth forecast could be produced. The encountered error is indicative of a system-level problem, rather than an absence of information available for the research topic itself.
7. Why Were No Research Findings Available?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error (System Report) |
|---|---|
| Data Extracted | None (System Report) |
| Impact | No findings available for analysis (System Report) |
Research failed to retrieve data due to an internal server error. The automated research process encountered an 'Internal Server Error' during its attempt to gather information for the specified query. This technical issue prevented the system from accessing or processing any of the relevant data sources required for analysis.
No findings generated; report details research attempt status. Consequently, the system could not generate any specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries concerning institutional fund flows for major S&P 500 ETFs like SPY and VOO. This document therefore serves as an update on the status of the research attempt, rather than providing answers to the initial query.
Technical issue caused data absence, not topic information lack. It is important to note that the absence of findings is attributable to a technical error during the research phase, and not to a potential lack of information on the topic itself. A subsequent re-attempt to process the research request may produce different results.
8. What is the current skew in the SPX options market
Research on December 2026 SPX options market skew was interrupted. The requested analysis concerning the current skew in the SPX options market for December 2026 expirations encountered an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the completion of the research, making it impossible to ascertain the implied volatility for 25-delta puts relative to 25-delta calls, or to compare this spread against its 12-month historical average.
Market insights into put/call volatility spread are unavailable. Due to this operational impediment, no data could be retrieved regarding whether the implied volatility for 25-delta puts is significantly higher than that of 25-delta calls. Consequently, there is no basis to evaluate the put/call volatility spread for December 2026 expirations against its 12-month historical average at this time.
9. What Were the Key Findings of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Reason for Failure | Internal Server Error (System Issue) |
The research query could not be completed due to an internal server error. An unexpected condition occurred within the system during the data collection phase, which critically prevented the full processing of the request. This technical issue directly led to an inability to gather any relevant findings or data points for the specified topic.
Consequently, no specific market insights or economic indicators are available. As a direct result of the server error, it is currently impossible to provide information regarding S&P 500 daily volatility, the impact of CPI or employment reports, or insights from ISM PMIs and retail sales data. Therefore, no key catalysts for the remainder of the year can be identified at this time.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: January 01, 2027
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXINXPOS-25DEC31H1600-T5881.63: YES (Dec 31, 2025)
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